Golden Globes

We all know that the Wizard bet $50K last year on the Academy Award, and only missed one small technical category. Let's take a stab at predicting the Golden Globes. My attendance at the movies this year was sad, so I don't have much to add.

I left "50/50" off the poll since I think it is the long shot for an academy award for best picture or even the Golden Globe. On the poll you can vote for a drama and a "comedy or musical".

Best Drama
1 ) The Descendants
2 ) The Help
3 ) Hugo
4 ) The Ides of March
5 ) Moneyball
6 ) War Horse

Best comedy or Musical
1 ) 50/50
2 ) The Artist
3 ) Bridesmaids
4 ) Midnight in Paris
5 ) My Week With Marilyn

Other Films w/ Acting Nominations
1 ) A Dangerous Method
2 ) Albert Nobbs
3 ) Beginners
4 ) Carnage
5 ) Crazy, Stupid, Love
6 ) Drive
7 ) J. Edgar
8 ) Shame
9 ) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
10 ) The Guard
11 ) The Iron Lady
12 ) We Need to Talk About Kevin
13 ) Young Adult

Other Nominated Films
1 ) A Separation
2 ) Arthur Christmas
3 ) Cars 2
4 ) Gnomeo and Juliet
5 ) In the Land of Blood and Honey
6 ) Lay Your Head Down
7 ) Machine Gun Preacher
8 ) Puss in Boots
9 ) Rango
10 ) The Adventures of Tintin
11 ) The Flowers of War
12 ) The Keeper
13 ) The Kid With a Bike
14 ) The Living Proof
15 ) The Skin I Live In
16 ) Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
17 ) W.E.

Screen Actors Guild Award nominations are very similar to Golden Globes with two exceptions
DEMIAN BICHIR (A BETTER LIFE) - Prominent Mexican Actor
NICK NOLTE (WARRIOR) - Real long shot

I voted but havent actually seen any of these.

PS: the Wizard gets the lowdown on these things, but his "secret" may just be to check out the morning line.

I remember when Bette Midler hosted the Golden Globes.

She went up to the lectern, casually placed her hands at the edge of the lectern, palms cupped upwards and announced "I'll show you a couple of golden globes".

I enjoy the trivia aspect of awards season more than anything (as in who won Best Actor in 1962?). I like studying and trying to remember that information, so from that standpoint, I get thrown in the mix with everybody else.

However, there was a cable station called Trio that really laid into the absurdity of awards shows. The ONLY reason I bring this up is because one of their documentaries featured during this time was talking specifically about the Golden Globes and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). In the expose, it showed how the organization consists of approximately 50 some members of the "Foreign Press" (which may consist of somebody who blogs once a year), yet gets wined and dined by the biggest of studio execs in order to get their film a win. As a few people pointed out, Pia Zadora won a Golden Globe in a highly criticized performance.

I don't remember the name of the documentary, but anybody interested in a fascinating story (albeit about ten years old now) should take a look for it.

Quote: Tiltpoul

However, there was a cable station called Trio that really laid into the absurdity of awards shows.

Remember the Wizard's advice from last year. He only bets on the favorites to win at the Academy awards (even if he has never seen the film).

How many people will follow his lead. If you look up his post he

Bet $21,635 on these three sure things to win $588.09
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3
Best actor -- Colin Firth

Bet $19,322.50 on these three almost sure things to win $2,250
Best actress -- Natalie Portman
Best Visual Effects - Inception
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale

Bet $8,055 on these two likely outcomes to win $1,850
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech
Best Picture - The King's Speech

Bet $1,837.50 on these four technical awards to win $300
Best Sound Editing - Inception
Best Sound Mixing - Inception
Best Film Editing - The Social Network
Best Make Up - The Wolfman

Until finally missing on the Best Cinematographer Award and losing $275. It was the bet with the highest payback.

Quote: Golden Globe Betting

Betting Pro

Picture Drama
10/11 The Descendants
5/2 War Horse
11/4 Hugo
14/1 Moneyball
16/1 The Help
16/1 The Ides Of March

Picture Musical/Comedy
8/13 The Artist
11/4 My Week With Marilyn
9/2 Midnight In Paris
6/1 Bridesmaids
12/1 50/50

Actor Musical/Comedy
1/2 Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
9/2 Ryan Gosling (Crazy, Stupid, Love)
9/2 Owen Wilson (Midnight In Paris)
8/1 Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50)
8/1 Brendan Gleeson (The Guard)

Actress Musical/Comedy
4/11 Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
9/2 Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
6/1 Jodie Foster (Carnage)
6/1 Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
10/1 Kate Winslet (Carnage)

Actor Drama
8/13 George Clooney (The Descendants)
5/2 Leonardo Di Caprio (J Edgar)
4/1 Michael Fassbender (Shame)
8/1 Ryan Gosling (The Ides Of March)
10/1 Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Actress Drama
4/6 Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
15/8 Viola Davis (The Help)
6/1 Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
7/1 Rooney Mara (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo)
9/1 Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin)

So following the Wizard's advice and betting $7,200 on these 6 bets should win $4,600 if all six win

=4/11 : $1100 Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
=1/2 : $1200 Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
=8/13 : $1300 The Artist
=8/13 : $1300 George Clooney (The Descendants)
=4/6 : $1200 Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
=10/11: $1100 The Descendants

From what I have heard The Artist is the closest to a sure thing. Michelle Williams will be the sentimental favorite just as her ex-husband was the sentimental favorite for the role of The Joker.

Quote: FleaStiff

I remember when Bette Midler hosted the Golden Globes..

I saw Bette Midler in a TV commercial last night.
Holy crap, her voice is shot, its totally gone as
far as singing goes. I also saw Carole King last
night, who's almost 70, she looks 50 and her
voice hasn't changed at all. Neither has James
Taylors, it amazing. Look at Wayne Newton, his
voice was gone 10 years ago.

Quote: FleaStiff

I remember when Bette Midler hosted the Golden Globes. She went up to the lectern, casually placed her hands at the edge of the lectern, palms cupped upwards and announced "I'll show you a couple of golden globes".

That was 30 years ago, and she wasn't a host. She was being given an award. I don't think she has ever hosted the GG.

I saw War Horse and I have to say that it would be criminal to let your children miss this movie before they get too cynical. That said, nearly everyone in the theater that I saw it was old, they all looked like people who never go to the cinema.

The cinematography is awe-inspiring. Fans of the Spielberg's landing at Normandy scene in Saving Private Ryan will appreciate the trench warfare scene. He even adds his own mythology to compliment the famous Christmas Truce of 1914. The gradual mechanization of war really hits a nerve. The first battle starts off as if it could have been scripted in the American civil war, but by the end the killing machines dominate.

The story-line is unapologetic in trying to recreate the feel of "Old Yeller" or "Black Stallion", but with the resounding theme that the war takes everything from everyone. The plot is very contrived, like most children's movies, but it has very modern touches. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that the father seems to have participated in atrocities in the Boer war, and become an angry alcoholic.

It does have moments of tedium, and the sheer corniness does get to you at times, but it is a hundred times better than "Super 8".

Seriously, take your kids. This film will be the best dramatization of this period in history they will ever see.

Does the horse die? Or horses, they used like 10
different horses to film the movie. The horse has
to die for it to win any awards.

Quote: EvenBob

Does the horse die?

I am sure you can look it up, but I don't want to be a spoiler.

Quote: pacomartin

Remember the Wizard's advice from last year. He only bets on the favorites to win at the Academy awards (even if he has never seen the film).
So following the Wizard's advice and betting $7,200 on these 6 bets should win $4,400 if all six win

=4/11 : $1100 Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
=1/2 : $1200 Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
=8/13 : $1300 The Artist
=8/13 : $1300 George Clooney (The Descendants)
=4/6 : $1200 Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
=10/11: $1100 The Descendants

From what I have heard The Artist is the closest to a sure thing. Michelle Williams will be the sentimental favorite just as her ex-husband was the sentimental favorite for the role of The Joker.

The favorites won all six of the Golden Globe categories, so a $7200 bet would have won $4400

=$400 Michelle Williams won Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
=$600 Jean Dujardin won Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
=$800 The Artist won Best Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
=$800 George Clooney won Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
=$800 Meryl Streep won Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
=$1000 The Descendants won Best Motion Picture - Drama

Quote: pacomartin

That was 30 years ago, and she wasn't a host. She was being given an award. I don't think she has ever hosted the GG.

You expect accuracy from a drunken panhandler?

Quote: odiousgambit

PS: the Wizard gets the lowdown on these things, but his "secret" may just be to check out the morning line.

I imagine the morning line shows the favorites of the gamblers which are probably the same as the industry favorites in the various gossip rags.
Does anyone know what the "handle" is for the betting on such things as the Golden Globe awards?
How much money is actually wagered.
If everyone bets on the favorites it may indeed be a lock but its a lock on a fairly small amount of money I would think if all the races are fixed.

George Clooney was so hip and relaxed when he
gave his acceptance speech for best actor, I was
really impressed. Then I found out later that the
HFPA had told him if he came and got Brad and
Angelina to come, they'd let him know well in
advance if he won or not. So of course he was
relaxed. Unlike Meyrl Streep, who was totally not
expecting to win, and it was like she was hit with
a cattle prod when they announced her name.

The GG's are kind of a joke, though. The HFPA
are a bunch of bought off whores, and this ceremony
is held so they can make about 30 mil for their
organization every year. You can buy a win if
you have the money and know the right people.