stocks now in bear market

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per the definition used by investment analysts which is a 20% or more drop from a recent high


the chart shows how long previous bear markets have lasted - the longest being around the year 2000 which lasted more than 2.5 years






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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/sp-500-is-in-official-bear-market-according-to-sp-dow-jones-indices.html


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Quote: lilredrooster

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per the definition used by investment analysts which is a 20% or more drop from a recent high


the chart shows how long previous bear markets have lasted - the longest being around the year 2000 which lasted more than 2.5 years

When does the bear market end? When it reaches the previous high?

Quote: DRich

When does the bear market end? When it reaches the previous high?

link to original post

how do we know when a bear market has ended______?____ Generally, investors look for a 20% gain from a low point as well as sustained gains over at least a six-month period.


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Society is collapsing. The bear market won't end in our lifetimes.

Quote: ChumpChange

Society is collapsing. The bear market won't end in our lifetimes.
link to original post

this should be the image next to your screen name at WOV____________________ )-:/


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Coinbase lays off 18% of workforce as executives prepare for recession and ‘crypto winter’
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coinbase-lays-off-18percent-as-execs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html

Coinbase is laying off almost a fifth of its workforce amid a collapse in its stock and crypto prices.

The cryptocurrency exchange will cut 18% of full-time jobs, according to an email sent to employees Tuesday morning. Coinbase has roughly 5,000 full-time workers, translating to a head count reduction of around 1,100 people.

The news comes during a deep rout for Coinbase shares. The stock went public via a direct listing last April during a boom in crypto markets and investors clamoring for high-growth tech stocks. Coinbase’s shares are down 79% this year and 85% from the all-time high. Meanwhile, bitcoin has dropped to near $22,000 and has lost 53% of its value this year.

Bitcoin drops as much as 17%, falling below $23,000 as $200 billion wiped off crypto market over the weekend
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/bitcoin-btc-falls-as-market-focuses-on-celsius-issue-fed-rate-hike.html

Meanwhile, a crypto lending company called Celsius has paused withdrawals for its customers, sparking fears of contagion into the broader market.
Celsius, which claims to have 1.7 million customers, advertises to its users that they can get a yield of 18% through the platform. Users deposit their crypto with Celsius. That crypto is then loaned out to institutions and other investors. Users then get yield as a result of the revenue Celsius earns.

Over the weekend and into Monday morning, more than $200 billion had been wiped off the entire cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market capitalization fell below $1 trillion on Monday for the first time since February 2021, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Quote: ChumpChange

Coinbase lays off 18% of workforce as executives prepare for recession and ‘crypto winter’
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coinbase-lays-off-18percent-as-execs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html

Coinbase is laying off almost a fifth of its workforce amid a collapse in its stock and crypto prices.

The cryptocurrency exchange will cut 18% of full-time jobs, according to an email sent to employees Tuesday morning. Coinbase has roughly 5,000 full-time workers, translating to a head count reduction of around 1,100 people.

The news comes during a deep rout for Coinbase shares. The stock went public via a direct listing last April during a boom in crypto markets and investors clamoring for high-growth tech stocks. Coinbase’s shares are down 79% this year and 85% from the all-time high. Meanwhile, bitcoin has dropped to near $22,000 and has lost 53% of its value this year.

Bitcoin drops as much as 17%, falling below $23,000 as $200 billion wiped off crypto market over the weekend
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/bitcoin-btc-falls-as-market-focuses-on-celsius-issue-fed-rate-hike.html

Meanwhile, a crypto lending company called Celsius has paused withdrawals for its customers, sparking fears of contagion into the broader market.
Celsius, which claims to have 1.7 million customers, advertises to its users that they can get a yield of 18% through the platform. Users deposit their crypto with Celsius. That crypto is then loaned out to institutions and other investors. Users then get yield as a result of the revenue Celsius earns.

Over the weekend and into Monday morning, more than $200 billion had been wiped off the entire cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market capitalization fell below $1 trillion on Monday for the first time since February 2021, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
link to original post

Do crypto bois do basic maths? 1,100 is 18% of 5,000 now?

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: ChumpChange

Coinbase lays off 18% of workforce as executives prepare for recession and ‘crypto winter’
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coinbase-lays-off-18percent-as-execs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html

Coinbase is laying off almost a fifth of its workforce amid a collapse in its stock and crypto prices.

The cryptocurrency exchange will cut 18% of full-time jobs, according to an email sent to employees Tuesday morning. Coinbase has roughly 5,000 full-time workers, translating to a head count reduction of around 1,100 people.

The news comes during a deep rout for Coinbase shares. The stock went public via a direct listing last April during a boom in crypto markets and investors clamoring for high-growth tech stocks. Coinbase’s shares are down 79% this year and 85% from the all-time high. Meanwhile, bitcoin has dropped to near $22,000 and has lost 53% of its value this year.

Bitcoin drops as much as 17%, falling below $23,000 as $200 billion wiped off crypto market over the weekend
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/bitcoin-btc-falls-as-market-focuses-on-celsius-issue-fed-rate-hike.html

Meanwhile, a crypto lending company called Celsius has paused withdrawals for its customers, sparking fears of contagion into the broader market.
Celsius, which claims to have 1.7 million customers, advertises to its users that they can get a yield of 18% through the platform. Users deposit their crypto with Celsius. That crypto is then loaned out to institutions and other investors. Users then get yield as a result of the revenue Celsius earns.

Over the weekend and into Monday morning, more than $200 billion had been wiped off the entire cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market capitalization fell below $1 trillion on Monday for the first time since February 2021, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
link to original post

Do crypto bois do basic maths? 1,100 is 18% of 5,000 now?
link to original post

math is hard!

The knife is falling faster than the news.

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from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

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"In May, the unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the third month in a row, and the number of
unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million. These measures are little different from
their values in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), prior to the coronavirus"


here is data on the unemployment rate since 2004:


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2004 5.4%
2005 4.9%
2006 4.4%
2007 5.0%
2008 7.3%
2009 9.9%
2010 9.3%
2011 8.5%
2012 7.9%
2013 6.7%
2014 5.6%
2015 5.0%
2016 4.7%
2017 4.1%
2018 3.9%
2019 3.6%
2020 6.7%
2021 3.9%




https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf


https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506



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Those numbers are not to be believed unless you are a devout statistician.

Quote: ChumpChange

Those numbers are not to be believed unless you are a devout statistician.
link to original post

Which ones are not to be believed? I would not be surprised if the unemployment numbers get revised lower next month.

What is the difference between u3 and u6 unemployment?
The U-6 rate includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers in the country. U-3 is the rate of unemployment released each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but many economists view the U-6 rate as the more meaningful rate because it covers a larger percentage of people who are unemployed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE
The U6 Rate is about 7.0% and is about equal to early 2020 before the pandemic caused lockdowns (and also about equal to late 2000).
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ZH: Hedge Funds Just Sold Stocks At The Fastest Pace On Record, Surpassing Even Lehman Liquidation Spree
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-just-sold-stocks-fastest-pace-record-surpassing-even-lehman-liquidation-spree

"US household assets could decline some $6 Trillion in 2Q22 due to the market selloff" - Wells Fargo

Stocks Stage Feeble Attempt At Dead Cat Bounce After Losing $1.3 Trillion In One Day

Fairly sure that, as a retired person, I fall into either of those numbers. But I have been surveyed by BLS back when I was still employed, and the questions they ask are fairly specific. My children, for instance, were part-time employed back then, but my wife was self-employed. Made for an interesting session.

Here's the upshot: if you are someone who was laid off during the pandemic, and decided to ride the unemployment train until it ran out of track, but then never got a job afterwards, U-3 does not count you, but U-6 does. That's why a lot of economists like U-6.

Another case: I have a friend who worked in the ad specialty field--embroidered hats, pens, polo shirts, you know the deal. He got hammered hard in 2008 when the recession hit, and his industry restructured massively. The job of ad specialty salesman never came back. He tried his hand at a few things, but at 50+, he was just done with the whole employment thing. He became 'long-term discouraged', and fell off the U-3 and instead was counted on U-6.

If you're unemployed longer than one year, U-3 drops you, but U-6 still counts you. That's why I look at U-6 for a better guess at reality.

The only number less meaningful than "unemployment" is "earnings**". Both figures are subjectively manipulated to a large degree.

That's one of the main reasons that price/GDP is a much better valuation of the stock market than price/earnings.

**Honorable mention: "inflation"