I am an idiot
March 24th, 2020 at 1:01:43 AM
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This is the dilemma. I'm not diversified, and I'm afraid to do it. I think the GILD stock will go up, I'm down on it. However if it does, all the other stocks will start soaring. If they start giving this drug, they're making money no matter what they say. They have orphan status for the drug now, so there will be benefits from the government. So yeah, dependent on the ups and downs of this stock, don't want to send any more money in, but maybe I should to grab gains from other stocks.
Shoot another thing, I'm using 2 brokerages. Am I going to get in trouble some how if I broke pattern day trader rules between the 2 brokerages? I've pretty much been steady on the one brokerage, made some intraday trades on the other to the point I was close to having my account locked. Just checked, have not made a single day trade at the other brokerage.
Is there any issue having 2 brokerage accounts anyone knows of?
I'm feeling pretty good btw, I'm in no danger of breaking my rule and need to stop trading. I'd pretty much need GILD to fall to 50 or 60.
I am totally over impulse FOMO buying and panic selling.
Shoot another thing, I'm using 2 brokerages. Am I going to get in trouble some how if I broke pattern day trader rules between the 2 brokerages? I've pretty much been steady on the one brokerage, made some intraday trades on the other to the point I was close to having my account locked. Just checked, have not made a single day trade at the other brokerage.
Is there any issue having 2 brokerage accounts anyone knows of?
I'm feeling pretty good btw, I'm in no danger of breaking my rule and need to stop trading. I'd pretty much need GILD to fall to 50 or 60.
I am totally over impulse FOMO buying and panic selling.
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 3:53:29 AM
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I'm tempted to sell off HD now. It has gone up so much in 1 day. Bought at $152 Friday late, closed at $162.39, right now says $174.77. Only have 15 shares, of course I wish I had more, glad I got out of Coke. GILD seems to be gaining investor confidence now it's in orphan status. I have no idea when to sell that one, either when the news comes out in April or one of the other candidates breaks news. The one company which won the EBOLA scurge very well might get their drug out. They had a better drug response the last time, damn I'm stuck in a dilemma. I'm not diversified and don't have enough cash on hand, tapped my margin out all the way(which is fine so far). I was kind of wrong on HD, thought people might want to work on home improvement but "STAY HOME" orders kind of ruin that(lol) but lucked out. SIGH. I have a strong feeling HD will not close above $174.77. Maybe I don't have the experience to actually know that, perhaps I don't know what it's like to hold onto a winner yet. It was $225 3/10. A friend mentioned EXXON(XMO) at $30, that's $34 already, and I didn't really see that one, but maybe it's value(greedy at right time). Keep in mind, I might want to almost completely withdraw when this is over, but when is this LOCKDOWN going to be over?
I truthfully have not been able to hold onto a profit yet. I have made some mistakes, getting better or am I? The next speculation might, as well as the current one, could teach me FEAR. It's supposed to be bad betting on these pharma companies, but this SCOURGE is unusual and a drug on the market before the COVID threat goes away will most likely happen. However, there will be multiple drugs, REMDESIVIR will be the first. IF GILD, rises enough, it could open up some buying power from my margin account for more stock. If anyone wants to get an account and get margin instantly and free stock, PM me for the code. I was surprised there is pretty much no criteria for getting the margin loan, they don't look at anything. If you have some cash in the bank, you could be investing $2000 today with only a $1000 deposit. ODG is probably shaking his head. I'm glad I am.
Update:HD isn't quoting for $174.77 anymore. There goes that money. How does that work? I can't even really sell when they're quoting $174.77. It's showing $169.65 now.
I truthfully have not been able to hold onto a profit yet. I have made some mistakes, getting better or am I? The next speculation might, as well as the current one, could teach me FEAR. It's supposed to be bad betting on these pharma companies, but this SCOURGE is unusual and a drug on the market before the COVID threat goes away will most likely happen. However, there will be multiple drugs, REMDESIVIR will be the first. IF GILD, rises enough, it could open up some buying power from my margin account for more stock. If anyone wants to get an account and get margin instantly and free stock, PM me for the code. I was surprised there is pretty much no criteria for getting the margin loan, they don't look at anything. If you have some cash in the bank, you could be investing $2000 today with only a $1000 deposit. ODG is probably shaking his head. I'm glad I am.
Update:HD isn't quoting for $174.77 anymore. There goes that money. How does that work? I can't even really sell when they're quoting $174.77. It's showing $169.65 now.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 24, 2020
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 3:59:36 AM
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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments
Relevant opposition being studied, results will not be immediate.
The weakness of Remdesivir is the IV needed. Ok, if it works though, should we have 1,000 people getting an IV as soon as they test for COVID19 for 10 days at a cost of $1500 for the drug or should we let 200 of them need a ventilator? We know we can't keep 200 people on ventilators and if they get that far, so many will die. Hmm. This is of course important if the other drugs don't work well enough or at all and depends on how well Remdesivir works.
I don't think those malaria drugs Trump mentioned will work, the article talks about the toxicity of the high dose needed for it to work. Everyone was on that band wagon at the time, I don't blame Trump for being hopeful. Maybe it will somehow but I doubt it. Would be awesome if a 6c pill was all which was needed.
Relevant opposition being studied, results will not be immediate.
The weakness of Remdesivir is the IV needed. Ok, if it works though, should we have 1,000 people getting an IV as soon as they test for COVID19 for 10 days at a cost of $1500 for the drug or should we let 200 of them need a ventilator? We know we can't keep 200 people on ventilators and if they get that far, so many will die. Hmm. This is of course important if the other drugs don't work well enough or at all and depends on how well Remdesivir works.
I don't think those malaria drugs Trump mentioned will work, the article talks about the toxicity of the high dose needed for it to work. Everyone was on that band wagon at the time, I don't blame Trump for being hopeful. Maybe it will somehow but I doubt it. Would be awesome if a 6c pill was all which was needed.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 24, 2020
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 4:31:03 AM
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Yep sure amQuote: onenickelmiraclemy margin account ... If anyone wants to get an account and get margin instantly and free stock, PM me for the code. I was surprised there is pretty much no criteria for getting the margin loan, they don't look at anything. If you have some cash in the bank, you could be investing $2000 today with only a $1000 deposit. ODG is probably shaking his head. I'm glad I am.
The problem with margin is you get 'margin calls' with that. In other words, as soon as it looks bad for them, they want their money. It's not like a home mortgage where if the value of the property goes down the bank has to sweat it the same as you. No. The people letting you have margin can put the squeeze on so it's only you sweating.
The bottom line is you can't buy stock on margin without being sure you won't have to come up with the money. Basically you have to have the money anyway so why go on margin?
There are horror stories about people losing their houses and things like that
Yes I'm surprised it was easy.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 24th, 2020 at 5:14:02 AM
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I think they change it based on the volatility and there isn't short selling as an option. They'll just sell me out of my positions. It says right now my portfolio is well above my margin maintenance, no action is required. If the value of my portfolio would drop drastically, this would be a problem for me and them. I can see how me talking about stacking and stacking is potentially problematic to lose everything, but I'm not going to take a risk like this. I won't be betting on something necessarily for 5 years down the road, because of the risk of right now. It's a total pain in the butt shipping money to them, I have 2 deposits I'm potentially waiting until Friday I believe, can cover if needed what I'm borrowing, but it would be catastrophic. That's not going to happen, I can guarantee this almost. Yeah, so I'm not selling short, or using options or anything crazy like this, those are the kinds of things which the bombs can explode if the brokerage doesn't sell you out of your positions.Quote: odiousgambitYep sure am
The problem with margin is you get 'margin calls' with that. In other words, as soon as it looks bad for them, they want their money. It's not like a home mortgage where if the value of the property goes down the bank has to sweat it the same as you. No. The people letting you have margin can put the squeeze on so it's only you sweating.
The bottom line is you can't buy stock on margin without being sure you won't have to come up with the money. Basically you have to have the money anyway so why go on margin?
There are horror stories about people losing their houses and things like that
Yes I'm surprised it was easy.
I can see why and how they can offer it, no matter what, their risk is limited to whatever my portfolio is worth and they're able to charge me 5% a year for basically half of my money. I have my initial deposit, and it's a little more than my portfolio, they aren't really risking double my money, they're risking my money. If I don't ship more, they would just sell my stock to get the margin and interest back. On top of the rate, I am being charged an extra $5 a month, they're charging me at most $31 a month interest iirc, if my portfolio stays the same, they're making $36 a month. If I fail, it's not going to be because of the margin interest.
I'm pretty much watching the money constantly, though I would not panic sell again. My second brokerage account I am not using margin, not so easy there, just buying and holding there, because I think I have to wait 2-3 days after selling to buy something else.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 24, 2020
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 5:38:06 AM
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HD will be open as an essential business, I did not know this. I'll hold onto it. Home depot is open now even with a stay home order.
I'm having trouble imagining it going up very much more though. All they can do is just lose a lot less business than other companies in the world.
Quote:Home Depot Inc. (HD) and Lowe's Cos. (LOW) , which sell both appliances and disinfecting and sanitizing items, has also talked about its role as an essential retailer.
"Our stores will remain open to provide essential products to customers, government officials and first responders," Lowe's says on its website.
"Our customers depend on us for urgent needs such as hot water heaters, refrigerators, cleaning supplies, electrical and plumbing repairs, bottled water and harsh weather items like tarps, propane and batteries. Our stores are critical to serving communities, especially in times of disaster and crisis.
I'm having trouble imagining it going up very much more though. All they can do is just lose a lot less business than other companies in the world.
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 8:58:00 AM
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I sold HD at $179.80 and GILD at $74 for a loss. I will be buying GILD back.
added; I do not have the touch, $185 is crazy. Getting some of the lost gains in BTC, no margin allowed for that.
There is no point in me watching these ticks, I'm not day-trading so all it does is make me crazy. I'm about to just read these books on narcissists. SIGH.
added; I do not have the touch, $185 is crazy. Getting some of the lost gains in BTC, no margin allowed for that.
There is no point in me watching these ticks, I'm not day-trading so all it does is make me crazy. I'm about to just read these books on narcissists. SIGH.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 24, 2020
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:46:43 AM
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I would like to point out to all here that margin calls were/ are a part of the volitility seen in both stocks and precious metals. A casual glance looks like Gold/Rhodium/Palladium were paying off Mr. Margin and/or unwise stock decisions. A check of 60-day history at kitco will confirm this suspicion. Problem is, looking to buy Gold thru kitco reveals nearly empty shelves !
Regards
Suited89
Regards
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
March 24th, 2020 at 12:38:16 PM
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I am in love with the GILD stock so I didn't buy all of it back and bought some others. Gild will probably take a few weeks to move anyway. Too much common sense psychology against the stock which might be misapplied to the situation, but there is a lot of it.
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 1:46:04 PM
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It's pretty funny I googled trying to find out if Trump was going to have a press conference today and one of the suggested questions Google presents was:
There are that many people asking this question it seems, that's funny.
Quote: GOOGLEWho is our president today?
There are that many people asking this question it seems, that's funny.
I am a robot.
March 24th, 2020 at 8:23:01 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleIt's pretty funny I googled trying to find out if Trump was going to have a press conference today and one of the suggested questions Google presents was:
Quote: GOOGLEWho is our president today?
There are that many people asking this question it seems, that's funny.
Approaching that invisible line....
March 24th, 2020 at 10:54:45 PM
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https://theintercept.com/2020/03/23/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-treatment-orphan-drug-status/
The drug was also given rare disease status by the FDA which has a lot of benefits. I'm not going to keep updating here about this. Pretty much everything shows up on brokerage sites regarding the news anyway. This article hasn't appeared yet, but will probably in the am before stocks open. The stock price is as low as it will go where it is now around $73, doesn't seem to want to go below $72.60 very much.
Nothing will happen until results from the Chinese studies come out I believe. The stock price will probably move today, but it has been coming down as fast as it pops. I only have 70.5% of the stock I once had as of yesterday. That's fine, because I had too much in just one stock, but scary because the stock has potential. I don't know how much, so what's the difference. I wouldn't know if I should sell at 80, 85, 90, 100, 140. Perhaps this means I should just hold long term.
The drug was also given rare disease status by the FDA which has a lot of benefits. I'm not going to keep updating here about this. Pretty much everything shows up on brokerage sites regarding the news anyway. This article hasn't appeared yet, but will probably in the am before stocks open. The stock price is as low as it will go where it is now around $73, doesn't seem to want to go below $72.60 very much.
Quote:The distinction could severely limit supply of remdesivir by granting Gilead Sciences exclusive protection over the drug and complete control of its price. Other pharmaceutical firms, including India-based pharmaceutical firm Cipla, are reportedly working toward a generic form of remdesivir, but patients in the U.S. could be prevented from buying generics with lower prices now that Gilead Sciences’s drug has been designated an orphan.
Nothing will happen until results from the Chinese studies come out I believe. The stock price will probably move today, but it has been coming down as fast as it pops. I only have 70.5% of the stock I once had as of yesterday. That's fine, because I had too much in just one stock, but scary because the stock has potential. I don't know how much, so what's the difference. I wouldn't know if I should sell at 80, 85, 90, 100, 140. Perhaps this means I should just hold long term.
I am a robot.
March 25th, 2020 at 7:55:26 AM
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I'm not going to diversify, GILD is pretty much my only stock. My average cost is $72. I'm not going to bet on the world being normal.
I am a robot.
March 26th, 2020 at 2:40:32 AM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm not going to diversify, GILD is pretty much my only stock. My average cost is $72. I'm not going to bet on the world being normal.
I'm making all the right mistakes I should lol.
Orphan drug status, check. Rare disease, status, check. Drug probably effective and first to market, check. Bernie Sanders complains, check. Company concedes profits w no recourse against them, check. I don't think I'll lose on this stock, that's my thinking. I don't think it will be susceptible to the long, stagnant reality we face the markets aren't realizing. I'm missing out on huge profits in the mean time, I could have bought more stock later with profits from other things presumed, but I thought the price in low $70s, high $68s, the best price which will be able to be gotten I also thought. Hope I'm right, but I won't be destroyed if I'm wrong. Even if I could have made money and would have, I wouldn't have been sure. Seeing the price climbing every day(which it hasn't), would have been riskier than just buying in now at lower prices. I really think this stock will be in the $80s and $90s, and above, but I'm not sure anyone else thinks that. Most of the expert talk is quite negative, they don't really see it as a must buy and are probably just judging the opinion because they see so much else which is bargain basement. It's getting closer to April and study results.
Other stocks owned or had owned:
RVLV
BTG
F
HD
MGM
PENN
I'm sure I would have been better off holding them right now and in the immediate future, but I still think they're much riskier than what I have. This stimulus, I don't know. I'm not expecting the same world we left behind. There is going to be such a recession, we're just not going to be used to seeing so little people and money out there when the clouds disappear. People are going to be afraid to spend money, and use any excuse to go back home where it is safe. I'm not even sure I can make money, and could just be one of those people that subconsciously make decisions to revert to being even or just a little more. I'm afraid my ego is impenetrable. Nobody can tell me I'm wrong. They can just give me ideas.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 26, 2020
I am a robot.
March 26th, 2020 at 3:37:58 AM
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I know there is some trading somehow once after hours are closed and before the markets open, and it keeps playing with my mind. I really don't know how it is happening, but the GILD stock keeps getting pushed up during the middle of the night, then plummets once the market opens. I'm sitting there seeing my portfolio either rise in value but I can't even get those prices. I can sell, but I don't even know what price I will either sell for or if I will have a sale until the markets open. What is really causing these off-hours moves? Some other stocks I look at don't seem to have any movement at all once the markets close.
Yesterday I was seeing the price move into the $74s and $75s, I would have been tempted to sell at those numbers for the short term, but I didn't think the sales would even go through. As time went on, the values dropped from there. I'm still pretty confused by some of the technicalities. The wash sale rule is very confusing, it could be trouble for me if I wind up losing money. I've tried some investor forums, but have not liked the formats of the ones I've found so far. The biggest one called the Lion, every time I searched forum posts yesterday, every forum post there was a hidden link to Yahoo Finance. Then later, all the posts were gone. It's like a nightmare.
Yesterday I was seeing the price move into the $74s and $75s, I would have been tempted to sell at those numbers for the short term, but I didn't think the sales would even go through. As time went on, the values dropped from there. I'm still pretty confused by some of the technicalities. The wash sale rule is very confusing, it could be trouble for me if I wind up losing money. I've tried some investor forums, but have not liked the formats of the ones I've found so far. The biggest one called the Lion, every time I searched forum posts yesterday, every forum post there was a hidden link to Yahoo Finance. Then later, all the posts were gone. It's like a nightmare.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 26, 2020
I am a robot.
March 26th, 2020 at 3:53:06 AM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm not going to diversify, GILD is pretty much my only stock. My average cost is $72. I'm not going to bet on the world being normal.
It's actually $71.67.
I am a robot.
March 29th, 2020 at 3:06:51 PM
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I have been told by everyone you cannot make money day trading, I do not believe it, but I also believe I don't know how to do it. So I decided to look into one of the ones advertising. It had some kind of webinar, so I checked it out. The guy talked about simple math to break even on how much is risked, and there were a few stocks mentioned, they were no name penny stocks. Supposedly some brokerage site where they're allowed to ignore pattern day trading and give margin as long as the site doesn't advertise, what? This guy is trying to sell some 3 year package for $3500, OMG NO. There was a pitch about making $200 a day, $50,000 a year and what would you do with it. Anyone experienced knows that kind of thing is for the suckers, show the product. There were some other things like some alert system, to see stocks on the move, blah, blah, blah about 30% movers for the day. I didn't see any meat there, there was talk about people who had turned $500 into $100,000, I really don't think they have anything. Other research showed no address nor telephone number for the place, sounds like it's easier selling a stock scam than a gambling system.
I don't think there is a there there for me anywhere with regards to trading, day trading or swing trading. I'll never find what I need to take risks I can be confident in the basis. Seems like in gambling it's easier to figure value, but in the stock market, there is too much competition. We'll see, maybe I'll uncover something, but I doubt it. The people who do this successfully usually don't advertise or share.
There was a point about how the stock market was gambling and you couldn't win. When paired with the saying "the stock market always goes up over time", well it shouldn't even be a fair point, it should be false. If you picked any stock, it shouldn't matter, maybe it doesn't. So much psychology, when you look at individual stocks, then it's different depending on how you think. Someone like Warren Buffet wouldn't be concerned about the news of the day, but you know, I'm beginning to think that's BS. At some point he has to think about something current and not just 10 years from now. If he doesn't, he wouldn't think there were values.
I don't think there is a there there for me anywhere with regards to trading, day trading or swing trading. I'll never find what I need to take risks I can be confident in the basis. Seems like in gambling it's easier to figure value, but in the stock market, there is too much competition. We'll see, maybe I'll uncover something, but I doubt it. The people who do this successfully usually don't advertise or share.
There was a point about how the stock market was gambling and you couldn't win. When paired with the saying "the stock market always goes up over time", well it shouldn't even be a fair point, it should be false. If you picked any stock, it shouldn't matter, maybe it doesn't. So much psychology, when you look at individual stocks, then it's different depending on how you think. Someone like Warren Buffet wouldn't be concerned about the news of the day, but you know, I'm beginning to think that's BS. At some point he has to think about something current and not just 10 years from now. If he doesn't, he wouldn't think there were values.
I am a robot.
March 29th, 2020 at 3:13:58 PM
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Thank you for helping me to understand the threads title.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
March 29th, 2020 at 3:39:27 PM
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Quote: billryanThank you for helping me to understand the threads title.
I am a robot.
March 29th, 2020 at 7:07:55 PM
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Quote: billryanThank you for helping me to understand the threads title.
I'm not allowed to think and investigate ideas and am just supposed to know what is behind a door before I look. All I did was watch a pre-recorded sales pitch, and laughed at how ridiculous it was but kept an open mind. Sometimes information is worth paying for, I don't think there are many getting the value out of these products they get online through these advertisings. It's crazy to me this company was pitching $583 was turned into $100,000, yet they're demanding $1000-$3500. There was some mention of 14 days to examine the course, but I don't believe it for a second. Yet In our world, $20 could be worth thousands if it's a book or just one thing you don't know or didn't think of. Maybe that's where I'm forgetting to look, there must be some ideas worth untold hours scouring the web in book form for a good place to start. The allure of clicking for money is too seductive to just automatically give up on. Pressing buttons is there, most people would not believe it either.
I am a robot.
March 29th, 2020 at 8:04:33 PM
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Day trading apparently has been proven to not work or be useless economically due to high frequency trading, per wikipedia.
Profitability
A 2019 research paper looked at the performance of individual day traders in the Brazilian equity futures market.[21] Based on trading records from 2012 to 2017, they conclude that day trading is almost uniformly unprofitable. According to their abstract:
We show that it is virtually impossible for individuals to compete with HFTs and day trade for a living, contrary to what course providers claim. We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and who persisted for at least 300 days: 97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of US$2,560). We find no evidence of learning by day trading.
There is still investing left.
Profitability
A 2019 research paper looked at the performance of individual day traders in the Brazilian equity futures market.[21] Based on trading records from 2012 to 2017, they conclude that day trading is almost uniformly unprofitable. According to their abstract:
We show that it is virtually impossible for individuals to compete with HFTs and day trade for a living, contrary to what course providers claim. We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and who persisted for at least 300 days: 97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of US$2,560). We find no evidence of learning by day trading.
There is still investing left.
I am a robot.
March 30th, 2020 at 9:03:02 AM
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It's nice to look at my portfolio and see it's gone up 5% in value, but then see the volatility of a roller coaster swinging hundreds every hour. Johnson and Johnson is planning an untested vaccine for a billion people to reach us a year from now and the US government is paying for them to not make much money, taking all the risks. I'm not in JNJ, just mentioning it because it affects my investments, which are GILD, and some MRNA.
This kind of scary
This kind of scary
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 30, 2020
I am a robot.
March 30th, 2020 at 1:32:55 PM
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JNJ said they weren't making money off these vaccines, and didn't even know if they would work. People bought the stock all day and it was up 8% for the day. Just looked in after hours, all those gains are gone and negative. The stock dropped from $132 to $123 in minutes after-hours trading. I'd be tempted to get into that one. Not now, because it should probably fall more once all the newcomers get out. I'm tempted to get into B2G. I don't even remember why I started watching that stock, it's pretty cheap, a few pennies can make a big day if you buy enough shares. Will probably avoid it and just hold onto my strategy. I'd just be crushed emotionally if my gain would have been better just sticking with the pharma stocks. Don't get margin on the small B2G, so would rather have the gains be double my value.
Well apparently something weird happened with J2J, it crashed, then completely recovered. That makes no sense. It went straight down, held(assumed there was a hold), then straight up. I also saw some strange price changes the same after-hours for HD, might have been all a glitch on robinhood, makes no sense.
Well apparently something weird happened with J2J, it crashed, then completely recovered. That makes no sense. It went straight down, held(assumed there was a hold), then straight up. I also saw some strange price changes the same after-hours for HD, might have been all a glitch on robinhood, makes no sense.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 30, 2020
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 9:12:50 AM
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One distressed REIT I recently purchased is Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT). A solid company hit hard by lack of travel and non-essential purchasing. My long-term COVID-19 horizon of 18-24 months fits well, as the stock is off more than 67%. A press release made me rethink my decision to sit tight, and bought some at the close yesterday. Basically, I'm over 90% invested at this point.
Regards
Suited89
Regards
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
April 2nd, 2020 at 9:20:33 AM
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I tell you I wish I was wise and experienced. I have managed to at this point have unrealized gains, but it's not even 3% gain in 3 weeks. 2 weeks ago, I thought the sky was falling and so did everyone else. I'd be a crazed nut to not think so. I didn't even know Bill Ackman drove down all the markets that 3/18, but that was the day I was going to sell off, and that was the day I lost 10% on paper. I also wasn't even awake to sell, so wasn't an option I could have took because I just didn't care enough. There is just so much to second guess.
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 9:29:07 AM
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The scenario you speak of is a little complex, but known. The best I can explain is that the month of March had quite a lot of activity expected for three basic reasons;
1.) Quadruple witching on the 20th
2.) End-of-fiscal quarter on 31st
3.) Quarterly rebalancing of institutional portfolios on 31st, BUT most giga$ players start early, and REBALANCE AGAIN shortly after the new quarter begins. This is called 'window-dressing'. Its temporary, and makes some portfolios (think of mutual funds for a good example) look better than they actually are, thus the term.
***EDIT Adding this*** I forgot to add Margin calls to all the panic-mode activities in the next paragraph. Might see this again, disrupting the market.
Now lets add the COVID-19 near panic reactions in the market. I have no doubt large, possibly wild swings can and or do occur. In the short-term of perhaps 2-3 weeks this will continue, and may extend further if company quarterly reports ending March (usually made in April) are 'not in line' with expected (poor) results.
JMHO
Suited89
1.) Quadruple witching on the 20th
2.) End-of-fiscal quarter on 31st
3.) Quarterly rebalancing of institutional portfolios on 31st, BUT most giga$ players start early, and REBALANCE AGAIN shortly after the new quarter begins. This is called 'window-dressing'. Its temporary, and makes some portfolios (think of mutual funds for a good example) look better than they actually are, thus the term.
***EDIT Adding this*** I forgot to add Margin calls to all the panic-mode activities in the next paragraph. Might see this again, disrupting the market.
Now lets add the COVID-19 near panic reactions in the market. I have no doubt large, possibly wild swings can and or do occur. In the short-term of perhaps 2-3 weeks this will continue, and may extend further if company quarterly reports ending March (usually made in April) are 'not in line' with expected (poor) results.
JMHO
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
April 2nd, 2020 at 9:59:47 AM
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I've had my portfolio show massive swings the last few days from winner, to loser, to winner. It's nice today seeing my portfolio seem to be at a 45 degree angle. I pretty much only have GILD, MRNA and XOM at this point. Yeah I made too many moves yesterday at ETRADE and have my buying power locked for now, but I'm sold at the moment and expect my pattern day trading restriction will be removed, as it can be done once every 180 days. God, i was playing with BTG yesterday, the greed really makes me wish all my money was in it from today to now, would have been 20% profit, but not really, because I can't get margin on the stock at robinhood.
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 10:18:38 AM
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Sold my GILD at $75.27, going to try timing this one a bit. Uh oh. I've got to not do this pretty soon in case some great news happens when I'm doing it. It's volatile, I'll take a chance the next 14 days, being more and more scared as it gets closer to mid-April. I could see the indexes dropping with it, so far I'm on the right side. It's crazy going from one side to another, hoping stock price increases, then hoping they fall, I'm really expecting they'll fall, to be seen. I don't think I'm good on this. My hesitation to sell was $.18, looking like a good short term play to get out. I'm going to have to get back in at some point, it's just going to be yielding me more shares if I'm right for today. Oh damn, I could have gotten more MRNA, same time GILD was falling, MRNA was going straight up I can see now. I keep updating this post if it isn't apparent. I did get more from GILD into MRNA earlier, diversifying a bit more by doubling my position in MRNA at $31.85.
gambling, just gambling. I shouldn't be doing this. Lol. Any other day, and the stock drops $3 when I hold it like today.
Reality is quite a *****. I'm going to stop this lol. I'm just not happy unless I'm right every time.
gambling, just gambling. I shouldn't be doing this. Lol. Any other day, and the stock drops $3 when I hold it like today.
Reality is quite a *****. I'm going to stop this lol. I'm just not happy unless I'm right every time.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Apr 2, 2020
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 10:23:00 AM
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Right now my essentially full potfolio consists of
IRM paper-recycle for business REIT
OHI health-care facility REIT
WY paper product manufacture (land REIT portion) aka Weyerhauser Paper
DRH hotel REIT
INN hotel REIT
DRJ hotel REIT
F Ford Motor Co.
SKT Factory Outlet Store REIT aka Tanger Factory Outlets
All of these except Ford were on good solid ground before COVID-19. My investments here are looking forward 18-24 months. I'll suffer the slings and arrows for now.
Regards
Suited89
IRM paper-recycle for business REIT
OHI health-care facility REIT
WY paper product manufacture (land REIT portion) aka Weyerhauser Paper
DRH hotel REIT
INN hotel REIT
DRJ hotel REIT
F Ford Motor Co.
SKT Factory Outlet Store REIT aka Tanger Factory Outlets
All of these except Ford were on good solid ground before COVID-19. My investments here are looking forward 18-24 months. I'll suffer the slings and arrows for now.
Regards
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
April 2nd, 2020 at 12:04:45 PM
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Quote: Suited89Right now my essentially full potfolio consists of
IRM paper-recycle for business REIT
OHI health-care facility REIT
WY paper product manufacture (land REIT portion) aka Weyerhauser Paper
DRH hotel REIT
INN hotel REIT
DRJ hotel REIT
F Ford Motor Co.
SKT Factory Outlet Store REIT aka Tanger Factory Outlets
All of these except Ford were on good solid ground before COVID-19. My investments here are looking forward 18-24 months. I'll suffer the slings and arrows for now.
Regards
Suited89
I have a Ford bond. I think it is classified as junk now. Trading at 70 cents on the dollar. So the buyers and sellers must think there is a real high possibility of Ford going bankrupt? Do you disagree?
Right now it matures in 2026 and pays 4.25% If Ford was on solid footing, would probably be trading at 112 instead of 70.
April 2nd, 2020 at 12:11:27 PM
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I have to learn my lesson, buy and hold, at least for a few days or a week. Things didn't turn out like I had thought, waiting until the last 10 minutes to buy back in bc I think it'll sell off then.
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 12:24:59 PM
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God this is painful being out of the stock, I should have went for a walk lol
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 12:52:25 PM
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Ouch, ouch, ouch. Just have to remind myself, this is not whom i am. My life doesn't depend on 1 day or any trade.
I definitely made the wrong moves, lost out on about $500.
I definitely made the wrong moves, lost out on about $500.
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 1:23:28 PM
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I will punish myself by giving myself a 10 days self-suspension unless something urgent changes like I'm sick. I will let myself post again 4.13.20
I am a robot.
April 2nd, 2020 at 2:15:49 PM
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Well, my financial hands are rather tied also. Cutting/Eliminating dividend can take 2-5 years to recover. The LTC capital collapse in '99 took 3 years for the REITs to recover. I made my first investments Dec. 2000 in some of them. A few are still around today notably ANH NLY O HT SKT and MFA. All I can say is I thought those days of 16% divi's was long gone. By 2005 the bloom came off that rose, and the horrible state of Mortgage REITs became known. Options, derivitives, pooling of mortgage-assets that were then wagered upon (so called binaries), mezzanine, tier, and structured 'instruments', institutions collecting the mortgage payment that were NOT in possession, or sold-off the rights, of the original payee's copy, and last and not least 'fill in the blanks applications'. Just a quagmire of greed, and gambling. By 2007 there were people not paying the mortgage, and suing that if the payee did not have their copy, or rights to it, that the payer's copy survives without payment due, and in some cases (notably Fla.) outright ownerhip unencumbered. Thats cheaper than buying a car, almost.
Well, theres a time to be actively investing, now, and a time to let things work out yay or nay, the future. IMHO it won't be until August that COVID-19 is far enough behind us to return to 'normal'. As I pointed out elsewhere here, the people of Wuhan are having difficulty readjusting... the fear lingers, the closed in secure feeling does not want to leave, and is hesitant.
Regards
8Geee
Well, theres a time to be actively investing, now, and a time to let things work out yay or nay, the future. IMHO it won't be until August that COVID-19 is far enough behind us to return to 'normal'. As I pointed out elsewhere here, the people of Wuhan are having difficulty readjusting... the fear lingers, the closed in secure feeling does not want to leave, and is hesitant.
Regards
8Geee
some people need to reimagine their thinking
April 7th, 2020 at 6:05:28 AM
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I've had second thoughts about SKT (Tanger Outlets). I looked at the property-holdings one more time. As it turns out, many of the locations are vacation/get-away dependant. Its SECONDARY to the hote/motel REITs investments made. Gonna toss this at the open today. If I'm lucky I made a buck a share. Like IRM and Ford, I had looked past the Debt/Equity ratio. But I see that the secondary nature, plus the high D/Eq ratio is rather poisonous, and SKT is of lower quality than originally thought. In plain language, its not a long-term bargain considering the lengthy travel and financial disruption.
Suited89
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
April 8th, 2020 at 9:06:24 PM
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I think there is something fishy at Robinhood on purchasing bitcoin. Will think twice about buying there again, the next time I sell is the last time I do. The slippage is great, seems like every time I buy and sell, not getting close to what I expect on market orders. They do not charge commissions, but there are some fees being taken for something I forget, it should be very low about .006% but it's coming out really expensive and a lot more than this. I'm being ripped off buying and selling, I'm very suspicious, will not trust them again for this. See you in a few days.
I am a robot.
April 8th, 2020 at 9:32:31 PM
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Welcome back ZenKing, TD Ameritrade cant be beat.
April 8th, 2020 at 9:53:16 PM
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Quote: rainmanWelcome back ZenKing, TD Ameritrade cant be beat.
Fake craptocurrency i know. Insulted being put on the same stage as ZK, not funny.
I am a robot.
April 8th, 2020 at 10:49:52 PM
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Nothing wrong with crypto, nothing wrong with a little humor at your expense no offense.
April 8th, 2020 at 10:54:17 PM
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Quote: rainmanNothing wrong with crypto, nothing wrong with a little humor at your expense no offense.
I'd not want you suspended. I want you to live with ZK and get bedbugs.
I am a robot.
April 8th, 2020 at 11:13:28 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleI'd not want you suspended. I want you to live with ZK and get bedbugs.
lol, now your talking. Me and the king in some bedbug infested dump.
April 9th, 2020 at 1:17:05 AM
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I totally ripped myself off so many times by selling, then trying to get back into the fake craptocurrencies they have there. I think every time I got in and out, $50 gone at least. The last time I bought, the price was $40 over the stated average, every time I sell, way less. It's nuts.. I could have put in limit orders, but I didn't realize it was that bad. The system is kind of inefficient for limit orders, you put them in and they are not kept in view, it's a mess, and then you don't know if the order is being filled or the market has moved so much already. I can see the graphs showing some waves as things move, but nowhere close to the prices paid or sold. I saw $7280, my order was bought at $7307, and the same when selling, it comes out higher. It's inexplicable to me, seems shady af. It'll be such a pain in the butt to even prove being robbed blind. I really think it's fraudulent with all my heart. Would make sense for them to rip people off without regulating agencies being involved and them self-policing. Beginning to think them running this off interest is bs.Quote: rainmanlol, now your talking. Me and the king in some bedbug infested dump.
It's a complete joke for them to even say it's BTC, BCH, or anything, you are not really buying the craptocurrencies, they will not give you them. It's like they're selling you the moon or Venus. I can't believe I fell for this scam. Any profits are lowered and any losses are increased by them somehow intentionally giving you the worst possible price they can it seems. It's pretty bad when you can't even believe your eyes, as soon as you buy, you see you're already down $20-$50 sometimes when it's only supposed to be $4 a BTC. It's honestly sick and I definitely got mad as hell.
I am a robot.
April 9th, 2020 at 11:40:32 AM
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Trades on any platform are not processed instantly your actually waiting in line & the price is
constantly fluctuating. As far as high fee's I wouldn't know as I'm not using Hood or trade Crypto.
Most platforms have free stock & ETF trades except penny stocks & I bet the Crypto has excessive fee's no matter
who your using.
constantly fluctuating. As far as high fee's I wouldn't know as I'm not using Hood or trade Crypto.
Most platforms have free stock & ETF trades except penny stocks & I bet the Crypto has excessive fee's no matter
who your using.
April 9th, 2020 at 12:31:09 PM
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In as much as most people think Bitcoin is an 'intangible', consider the daily price as equal to the amount of electricity (based upon computing costs) necessary to produce 1 Bitcoin. In short work MUST be performed, and that work has a cost.
Suited89
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
April 9th, 2020 at 1:12:40 PM
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Very interesting take I have never seen before. I'd be interested to see what type of costs are associated when multiplying the fractions of a cent by a ridiculous amount of times.
April 9th, 2020 at 2:13:08 PM
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i forget the technical term for this, it presumes that any consumer making decisions for his own purchases will be representative of the market and no worse a judge than some market analyst. The 'shoemaker, stick to your last' aspect is a great, but sensible, contrast to the conglomerate acquisition binge that investors used to favor.Quote: billryanSpeaking only for myself, I buy stock in companies that make products I use.
Harley, Tesla, ATT, Disney, WWE, some cable companies and their spinoffs.
I tend to stay away from companies who wander far from their original status.
If a company started as a telephone provider but is now manufacturing refrigerators, I tend to stay away.
I'm a Ronco style investor. I set it and forget it.
April 9th, 2020 at 2:16:42 PM
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I thought bitcoins were already mined and that most such mining used stolen cpu cycles often from infected servers unaware that they have been compromised.Quote: Suited89In as much as most people think Bitcoin is an 'intangible', consider the daily price as equal to the amount of electricity (based upon computing costs) necessary to produce 1 Bitcoin. In short work MUST be performed, and that work has a cost.
So is STOLEN electricity a product cost????????
April 9th, 2020 at 2:44:55 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffi forget the technical term for this, it presumes that any consumer making decisions for his own purchases will be representative of the market and no worse a judge than some market analyst. The 'shoemaker, stick to your last' aspect is a great, but sensible, contrast to the conglomerate acquisition binge that investors used to favor.
In some cases, being a consumer of these stocks can tip you off to situations. I used to own stock in JCPenny and ordered a dozen or so polo shirts each year. When I received some shirts that were markedly inferior to their old products, it gave me a heads up something wasn't right.
About 30 years ago, one of my friends was a rising star at a defense company. He headed a project that had something to do with the next generation swift boats for the Navy. The company went on a buying binge and the next project his team worked on was heads for aluminum golf clubs. They never got it right and the company lost a fortune. His star sunk as fast as it rose, all because some suit thought a company whose bread and butter was building weapons should expand to sporting goods.
Remember when someone thought Harley and AMF were a good match for each other.
Last edited by: billryan on Apr 9, 2020
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
April 9th, 2020 at 2:48:02 PM
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Quote: billryanIn some cases, being a consumer of these stocks can tip you off to situations. I used to own stock in JCPenny and ordered a dozen or so polo shirts each year. When I received some shirts that were markedly inferior to their old products, it gave me a heads up something wasn't right.
I am a big believer in investing in companies whose products I use and like.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
