Most Stolen Vehicles

This is my first entry into the Gripes section.

This week the list of the most stolen vehicles came out. Here is an article about it, Most Stolen Vehicles, at msn.com. What bothers me is conclusions like this, made in the article, But if you're the owner of a Honda Accord or a Ford F-150 pickup, there's still cause for concern. Those two models appear in the "Hot Wheels" report, the National Insurance Crime Bureau's annual list of the most stolen vehicles in the United States. .

What people should be worried about is not the number of cars stolen that match their own car, but the ratio stolen! Let's look at this made up example.

Toyota Corolla:
Cars on road: 1,000,000
Stolen in 2010: 50,000

Honda Civic:
Cars on road: 2,000,000
Stolen in 2010: 60,000

If you own one of each car, which one should you worry more about being stolen. For example, if you had a one-car garage, which would you leave out on the street? I would argue you should be more worried about the Corolla, with a 5% theft rate, compared to 3% for the Civic. So I would leave the Civic out on the street. Nevertheless, the Civic still has a greater total of cars stolen.

This kind of false conclusion using statistics happens all the time, and I want to pull my hair out each time I see it.

Mike, isn't that why the word 'average' has 43,692 uses in math? That way we can bend the stats to fit our needs and conclusions.

Quote: Wizard

What people should be worried about is not the number of cars stolen that match their own car, but the ratio stolen!

Absolutely. And most people won't even understand why.

But, to be fair, and accurate, it's the ratio of car types stolen in a given area. I mean, hos many Corollas in Vegas and what percentage of them get stolen? Maybe that's a safer car to own in LA than Vegas, for example.

Quote: Wizard

This kind of false conclusion using statistics happens all the time, and I want to pull my hair out each time I see it.

I have read and re-read the article, and cannot see it drawing any such conclusions. While you may be right about ratios instead of totals, the article is titled "Most-Stolen Cars", and appears correct in that respect.

Quote: Wizard

What people should be worried about is not the number of cars stolen that match their own car, but the ratio stolen!

Where does the article mention what buyers should be worried about? That is a separate topic that only appears in your gripe, Wiz.

Chill out.

>look at this made up example.
>Toyota Corolla:
>Cars on road: 1,000,000
>Stolen in 2010: 50,000
More popular with certain gangs, has weaker locks
>Honda Civic:
>Cars on road: 2,000,000
>Stolen in 2010: 60,000
Less easy to fence, more often owned by those who reported it stolen but actually torched it themselves, demographics of ownership reveals younger ownership, more likely to be out partying and to leave keys in ignition at coffee carts.

We all misperceive dangers and often take inappropriate actions. At a charity polo match I saw one man leave his wife and two pony tails to go back and lock his Jaguar. The greatest threat was to his two teenage daughters. If they go to look at the horses they might meet a groom who is poor. That is a danger with far more impact than a stolen car.
And when he locked that car, he left the driver's window wide open, so what good did it do?

I have three Studebakers. They never show up on the most stolen list.

Actually, that's the Wiz's point. If half of the existing Studebakers are expected to be stolen in the next year, you have cause for worry, list or not.

Quote: algle

I have read and re-read the article, and cannot see it drawing any such conclusions. While you may be right about ratios instead of totals, the article is titled "Most-Stolen Cars", and appears correct in that respect.

Where does the article mention what buyers should be worried about? That is a separate topic that only appears in your gripe, Wiz.

Chill out.

It doesn't specifically say Honda Accord owners should be more worried, but I think that is the obviously conclusion based on the way the article is written. Just look at the lead sentence, "Honda and Toyota cars have long been popular with car buyers and they remain popular with car thieves, too." That implies, to me at least, that thieves have an affinity for these cars, and prefer them over others. I suggest that they are stolen more just because of the greater supply of them.

In contrast, here is a well done article that gives useful information to the reader: The 10 Most Stolen Cars in 2011. This one gives the top highest theft rates. Who makes the top of the list? The Cadillac Escalade.

My point is not that the first article was in error, but at best gives the reader information that isn't helpful, and at worst leads the reader to false conclusions. I applaud www.carinsurancecomparison.com for getting it right.

Quote: Wizard

I applaud www.carinsurancecomparison.com for getting it right.

Here's the problem:

Actuary = number cruncher.

Journalist = spin doctor.

Quote: Wizard

It doesn't specifically say Honda Accord owners should be more worried, but I think that is the obviously conclusion based on the way the article is written. Just look at the lead sentence, "Honda and Toyota cars have long been popular with car buyers and they remain popular with car thieves, too." That implies, to me at least, that thieves have an affinity for these cars, and prefer them over others. I suggest that they are stolen more just because of the greater supply of them.

I always thought Toyotas tended to be atop the stolen cars list because parts for one model/year tended to work with other years of the same model, so they were more in demand at chop shops. Of course, the fact that there are lots of Toyotas out there that could use these parts figures into the numbers as well.