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Home » Forums » Off-Topic » General Discussion » The hoax that is the 1.41% house advantage on pass line bets
The hoax that is the 1.41% house advantage on pass line bets
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| March 9th, 2010 at 8:22:40 PM permalink | |
| boymimbo Member since: Nov 12, 2009 Threads: 12 Posts: 2533 |
Tutti, golf is a game of skill. Tiger practices his golf swing for his entire life to be where he is today. Do you think you have a chance to beat Tiger at golf? Craps is a game of chance where every single roll of the dice is in the casino's favor, because the casino has set the payback of EVERY SINGLE roll at less than the true odds of the dice appearing. I am sorry that you believe that you are going to win at the craps table. Preparation and mindset will not do you any good. Only luck will help you, and when I say luck, I mean the variance of the dice from its true odds and your presence at the table when the dice are "in your favor". It is math and statistics and probability that rules every single game at the casino. The only times you have an advantage over the casino is when they let you. Craps has been beaten to death by every single system out there, including yours, to no success. I don't play to win. I play to have fun, and at that, I am never disappointed. But to have more fun, my money needs to last. For my money to last, I play the games with the least house advantage at a level I can afford balancing it out against the fun I personally have playing the game. Bacarrat carries some of the lowest house advantages but it is no fun. Pai Gow carries a house advantage at 2.66% range but it is fun and goes very slowly so my expected loss per house is low. I will even throw $20 into a slot machine if the game looks to be fun. I win some, and I lose some, and I am fine with that. If I play with the expectation to win, I will be disappointed. If I can play for a long time and have fun, win or lose, I am happy. -----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth! |
| March 10th, 2010 at 7:11:04 AM permalink | |
| seattledice Member since: Dec 3, 2009 Threads: 14 Posts: 142 |
I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. Also, you have somehow quoted me and added your statements to make it appear that I wrote them. The corrected quote sequence is above. If I were to teach my grandchildren about craps (which I would probably leave up to their parents, but let's go with your premise) I doubt I would have to do more than give them a pair of dice, the payouts of the various bets, and let them work out the probablilities on their own, and they would ask, "Grandpa, what is the point of playing craps when you can't win?" Usually when one quotes a single word, as you quoted the word "math", it is a shorthand way of saying you don't believe it is really what it appears to be, as in "so called math." Are you bored by the math that you have been shown? What boy, goat, me and many others have tried to show is the real math of the probabilities of craps. We have done it in different ways - some lengthy derivations of overall probabilities, some simple treatments of specific strategies that you have put forth - yet all of our calculations arrive at the same result. You have cited your own "math" (yes, I mean "so called math") to back up your opinions, and we have carefully and, for the most part, patiently shown you where your math is wrong. It is one thing to claim that your own experience does not match the math. That very same math tells us that it is possible to win sometimes, and even possible to be ahead over a long period of play. It is another thing entirely to claim that the math we have shown you is wrong, and the "math" you use to support your claims is right. Do you really believe that you and a few others have found a way to beat the casinos? Your ideas have been around for a long time and they have been tried, analyzed, and simulated, and if they really worked the casino owners would have changed the rules of the game because they don't want to go bankrupt. The only person trying to teach that you can play craps and win over the long haul is you. In my last post I showed that the two betting strategies have a house advantage, and one has a higher HA than the other. I did this by accounting for all possible outcomes of the two strategies. Others have taken your strategies and run simulations of tens of thousands of rolls, and come up with the same result. Diatribe. The word has roots in the Latin "diatriba" (learned discourse) and Greek "diatribe" (pastime, lecture) but it's most common current definition is "A bitter, abusive denunciation" and given this definition, the only thing resembing a diatribe throughout this thread is your abuse of pure mathematics. I am sure that I am not alone in thinking that you will never believe what we are telling you. I don't know if it's because you are unwilling to put in the time to really understand the math, or unable to grasp the concepts, or perhaps some other reason. We probably should have given up long ago, but you continue to misquote us, and apply faulty reasoning. One reason I replied was that you cited two strategies and selected a small set of outcomes to "prove" that one was clearly superior; I wanted to make sure other readers see how these strategies work over all possible outcomes. |
| March 10th, 2010 at 7:33:38 AM permalink | |
| SPOOS1 Member since: Mar 9, 2010 Threads: 0 Posts: 3 | My numbers are absolutely correct!! They express the "true odds" in a craps game in terms of units won and lost in any 36 roll cycle. Because the number 12 is neutral for the don't player it must be taken into consideration. If you don't believe me run a random number generator for 5760 comeout rolls using the rules of any craps game and you will find at the end of each cycle if you bet the pass you will be down 80+/ units and if you bet the don't you will be down 80+/ units. The bell shaped curve is simply the 36 roll curve. Because the 6 and 8 win .45454% of the time it is much easier to see the results if you roll them 800 times. So in 5760 comeout rolls you will roll a 6 (5/36 x 5760) 800 times if you are a do player you will win 364 times and "seven out" 436 times for a net loss of 72 units. The inverse for the don't player +72. So to look at a module 5760 comeout rolls you have a perfect bell shaped curve. The mean is the number 7 and the other numbers represent deviations from the mean. If you were an option trader the number 7 would be considered the At the Money Strike and all of the other numbers would be higher or lower strike prices on the curve. The 2 and the 12 would be the "teenies"(.0277%.) 2 160 3 320 4 480 5 640 6 800 7 960 9 800 10 480 11 320 12 160 5760 So here is a question to stir up the pot. What is the difference between the edge and the "drop"? |
| March 10th, 2010 at 7:39:19 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5737 | Several pages back, I provided a brief instruction on using forum tags and editing quotes. Tutti couldn't figure it out. Whether he is unable or unwilling to grasp that concept is probably an indication of why he is unable or unwilling to grasp the concept of the 1.41% "Seeing the light" is difficult. I had a hard time with it back a month or so ago with the Monty Hall Paradox thread. But the funny thing is, once I figured it out, I am now able to explain it in terms that are so simple, I'm surprised that nobody explained it that way before. Sooner or later, Tutti is gonna see the light on the 1.41%. I shudder to think of what will happen on that day. Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| March 10th, 2010 at 7:55:44 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5737 | Mathematically, they should be the same. FYI: The drop is the actual difference between the cash taken in, and the cash paid out. The reason they are not the same is because of variance, and the human habit of playing the same cash over and over before finally walking away. Note: Unless I'm mistaken, "Edge" refers to the House Advatage. If not, then ignore this post. And give me a better definition, so I stop making that mistake! Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| March 10th, 2010 at 8:29:11 AM permalink | |
| SPOOS1 Member since: Mar 9, 2010 Threads: 0 Posts: 3 | Casino owners would puke if they only won the "edge". The drop is the real edge. Remember if the game is "round" (same number of do and don't player action) the house wins 80 units from BOTH sides, throw in all the other bets and the "hold" for most games is closer to 4%. The casino is intereested in the "handle". In a sense the casino's are like a racetrack that has a mutual take averaging greater than 17%. Their natural edge is built in, and all they want is the most money bet on each race. The Casino loves action the more the merrier. They have position limits, so no one shooter can knock them out of the box. |
| March 10th, 2010 at 10:12:03 AM permalink | |
| boymimbo Member since: Nov 12, 2009 Threads: 12 Posts: 2533 |
Didn't see this one. I've already talked to my child about gambling. She sees me going to the casino (as many of my friends and family do) as a waste of money. What I tell my child is that gambling is a form of entertainment which has cost (similar to a movie, bowling, golf, buying i-tunes, going to a concert, etc) just like other forms of entertainment. The difference in gambling is that the cost is not set where as the other forms of entertainment are. When measuring the value of your entertainment, I tell my child that the amount I expect to lose and budget is the number of hours I play times the amount I play with times the house advantage. I do not tell my child that it's easy to win. I tell my child that it's a form of entertainment and that you can win and lose and that you should only play with what you can afford to lose, BUT that the casino is there to make money off you and that every bet in the casino is designed to take everyone's money gradually away. Some will win, more will lose. When my kid gets older, if she gets a desire to gamble, I will tell her to visit the Wizard's sites and tell her to work out the odds for any particular system herself. All of your scenarios so far (30 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, all of the place bets) show that you will on average, lose money, and in fact far faster than the pass line with odds. Most people who play craps do not just play that bet. I certainly don't. I add come bets (also a -1.414% HA as well, less with odds) and I will place the 6 and 8 (1.52%), as these are the best bets on the table. When I feel like not risking much money, I'll put $1 or $2 each on the hard 6 and 8 which has the same expected loss (but greater house advantage) as a $9 / $18 place bet (instead of placing the 6 and 8). Overall, my per roll expected value is $.19, or about $12/hour and I get to play 4 numbers. Compare this with your system which right now at $164/bet will lose you $2.17/roll (if you remove the horn and buy your 4 and 10 where the winning is paid on the vig only it will only be $1.00 / roll). I don't need action on every roll to keep me excited. I compare this to blackjack with an expected value of about $5/hour ($10 x 100 hands/hr x .5%), pai gow with an expected value of $12/hour ($15 x 30 hands/hr x 2.66%), video poker (5/6/9 DB) with an expected value of $10/hour ($1.25 x 360 hands / hr x 2.2%). When I compare all of that with a movie ($22 including drinks and popcorn for 2 hours), golf ($60 / round + lost balls and tees for 4 hours), theatre ($$$ for three hours), or other forms of entertainment, gambling to me at any of the games above becomes a very valid form of entertainment. -----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth! |
| March 11th, 2010 at 9:52:35 AM permalink | |
| goatcabin Member since: Feb 13, 2010 Threads: 4 Posts: 495 |
The trouble with your figures is rounding. For each point, the error is small, but it results in a cumulative error of a couple of percent. With the "perfect 1980" there is no rounding problem. Please review the figures I posted; they are exact. The edge is 1.414% for the pass and 1.403 for the don't pass (or 1.364 if you count the 55 units of comeout 12 as "risked"). You can find these figures in any book on craps or on mathematics of gambling. The expected value of 1980 pass bets is -28 units, -27 for don't pass.
The edge is the percentage the casino expects to win (the players to lose) out of every unit bet. More precisely, the edge is the "expected value" divided by the amount bet. The key to understanding this is that it applies to the total bet handle, not just to the player's starting bankroll. To put it another way, the expected value is the edge times the "bet handle". Too much emphasis is placed, in my view, on the edge, or "HA", which is important but perhaps not as important as variance. Cheers, Alan Shank |
| March 11th, 2010 at 9:57:37 AM permalink | |
| goatcabin Member since: Feb 13, 2010 Threads: 4 Posts: 495 |
Of course, it only takes one set of 495 to produce a 244-251 outcome, just as it only takes one set to produce 243-252, or 242-253. 244-251 is more likely than any other specific outcome. You UNDERSTAND nothing, unfortunately. Cheers, Alan Shank |
| March 11th, 2010 at 11:21:55 AM permalink | |
| boymimbo Member since: Nov 12, 2009 Threads: 12 Posts: 2533 | It still burns. I was looking forward to this thread just dropping off the bottom, into forum oblivion. -----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth! |
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