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Maximing a coupon
| January 24th, 2012 at 8:24:13 AM permalink | |
| ChampagneFireball Member since: May 2, 2010 Threads: 8 Posts: 51 | I have a coupon for a local casino, and I want to know what I should play it on. Actually, I get one a week, so it is worth some thought. The coupon is good for any "bonus bet" on any table game. If you hit a bonus of 4 to 1 or more, they throw in $20. And the coupon plays until you win. It seems to me with the static $20, I should be playing it on a very low limit bonus bet. Other than that, I don't know what bet to play it on. And I don't know if I can turn a bonus bet from a sucker bet into an advantage play at least for as long as I can play it. Any advice? |
| January 24th, 2012 at 8:33:57 AM permalink | |
| teddys Member since: Nov 14, 2009 Threads: 100 Posts: 2723 | That's a very valuable coupon. I would find a good low-variance bonus bet where you wouldn't have to wait long for the payout. A good one would be Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em "Trips" bet that pays 4 or 5 for a straight. Some Pai Gow Poker bets would be good, too. Lessen the "bleeding cost" while you wait for the bonus. "If you can make one heap of all your winnings / And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss / And lose, and start again at your beginnings / And never breathe a word about your loss..." -Rudyard Kipling |
| February 9th, 2012 at 4:49:48 PM permalink | |
| cardcounter Member since: Oct 15, 2011 Threads: 10 Posts: 56 | I have never heard of a coupon that you keep on a loss. I have seen ones that you keep on a win but rarely. Most of the time they are one bet only. I would bet $1 on a 4 to 1 slot with the coupon until I won. With the coupon the bet goes from a sucker bet to one that has a positive expectation guranteed. |
| February 9th, 2012 at 5:07:52 PM permalink | |
| miplet Member since: Dec 1, 2009 Threads: 3 Posts: 552 |
What games are available? What are the pay tables? What casino if you don't mind telling? |
| February 9th, 2012 at 5:09:33 PM permalink | |
| AcesAndEights Member since: Jan 5, 2012 Threads: 11 Posts: 584 |
You need to know the specific payouts for all eligible side bets to know if it will provide positive expected value. But yeah, given the static $20 payout, definitely bet the minimum possible. "Life's a bitch and then you die. Or seven out." -AlanMendelson |
| February 9th, 2012 at 5:10:09 PM permalink | |
| AcesAndEights Member since: Jan 5, 2012 Threads: 11 Posts: 584 |
I doubt he can use it for slots - it's probably limited to table games. "Life's a bitch and then you die. Or seven out." -AlanMendelson |
| February 9th, 2012 at 5:39:40 PM permalink | |
| Boz Member since: Sep 22, 2011 Threads: 11 Posts: 146 | I would think he meant a 4-1 spot, not slot on a table. The best bet probably would be a regularly horrible "Lucky Ladies" bet at the Caesars casinos. If you play a decent BJ game, you are only adding to your opportunites with the coupon. |
| February 9th, 2012 at 6:40:45 PM permalink | |
| cclub79 Member since: Dec 16, 2009 Threads: 26 Posts: 939 |
One that you see more often is 2:1 on your first blackjack or suited blackjack. You keep it if it loses, and they hope you lose more than the bonus is worth before you get one...Technically I guess you could say you don't "use" it until you get the blackjack, then you hand it over I think, so this is similar to that I'd imagine... |
| February 14th, 2012 at 4:43:40 PM permalink | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AcesAndEights Member since: Jan 5, 2012 Threads: 11 Posts: 584 |
All right kids, I have this same exact coupon (wouldn't be surprised if it were for the same exact casino, or another one in the chain), and wanted to analyze it. Since I pretty much only play blackjack, I did the analysis for the "Double Action"/"Second Action" blackjack side bets that the casino offers. I don't believe the Wiz covers this one in his excellent Appendix 8 on Blackjack side bets, although it is similar to the 21+3 side bet, in that it pays based on the player's first 2 cards and either the dealer's up card ("Double Action") or hole card ("Second Action"). These are 2 separate side bets, so if you only bet the "Double Action" and you make a hand with the dealer's hole card, *sad trombone*. Anyway, you can get the full rules and payouts for the game here. My casino uses the stingiest payout option (#5) for their 6 deck game. I've copied it below, along with how it will pay with the coupon:
If I've done the math correctly, this coupon turns the side bet into a +EV proposition, with an expected return of $1.64 on a $1 bet, instead of a bet with about an 11.6% house edge! The above is based on a $1 bet, as you would be foolish to bet any more than this on a carnival side bet without a coupon, and with this coupon the return is maximized with the smallest possible bet. If you could get them to let you bet one of the $.50 chips on it, even better (usually they won't let you do this). I did the above math rather sloppily with a combination of gnome-calculator and pen and paper, so I definitely lost some sig figs here and there. Also, the company that owns the side bet used the stupid "hit rate" to show probability, so I converted those to normal probability. I also double-checked everything except for the single match with my own combinatorial math. I couldn't work it out for the single match, so I took their word for it. Although eye-balling the Wizard's math for the normal "Match the Dealer" side bet, .13 looks about right for the probability of a non-suited OR suited match. Interesting coupon if you have it...since it's a static payoff, it's not worth much in terms of overall monetary value, but if you're going to be playing anyway, might as well use it. Also, the player advantage would only go up if your casino uses the lesser-stingy paytables. "Life's a bitch and then you die. Or seven out." -AlanMendelson | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| February 14th, 2012 at 6:29:50 PM permalink | |
| miplet Member since: Dec 1, 2009 Threads: 3 Posts: 552 | I list that side bet in my google docs I'm not home right now, but can do full an analys later. |
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