control of senate

At the start of this election cycle, the dems hold on the senate looked very vulnerable. Of the third of the senate seats that are up for election every 2 years, this year looked a good chance for republican pickup, regardless of how the presidential election turned out because there were many more seats held by current dems or dems or independents retiring that were in play than seats held by repubs in play.

For about a month now ever since the self inflicted wound by the republican candidate in Missouri, the projections have been 52 democrats, 48 republican. That was a pick up of only one seat and obviously would not flip the senate no matter what happened in the presidential election.

Now, of course, there was a second self inflicted wound by a republican senatorial candidate who was leading his race earlier this week. Prior to Mr Mourdock's abortion comments on Tuesday he was leading in the polls by 5-6 points and was a favorite with a 70% change of winning his seat (predictwise). I have yet to see a poll after his much publicised comments, but predictwise now had his opponent Joe donnelly as a 2-1 favorite to win that seat with a 68% chance of winning. If these predictions were to hold true, the republicans net gain would be 0. Nada! zilch! Mostly due to their own stupidity and self inflicted wounds.

There are so many close and interesting races. MO and IN got close (and odd) fast. ND is close, with polling very loose. AZ and CT are close and consistent. VA pits two former governors against each other in a squeaker. OH and PA should be closer than they are. Smith is a good candidate, and Mandel could be leading if he wasn't a dunce.

Quote: rdw4potus

OH and PA should be closer than they are. Smith is a good candidate, and Mandel could be leading if he wasn't a dunce.

Can you explain what makes Smith a "good candidate" in your mind? I lived in Pa until 2009 and followed politics pretty closely and have never heard of Mr Smith. Turns out for pretty good reason. As recently as 2010 he was a committeeman in Plumcreek township. That is about as local as you can get in politics. Pretty much a block captain. lol So again, what qualifies him to run for the US senate from a rather large state? This race is only somewhat close because Senator Casey is a ying yang. He has campaigned very lightly. Would serve him right to lose, but I doubt enough of the swing voters in the 4 crucial Phila suburban counties have even heard of Plumcreek pa or Tom Smith to make that happen.

Smith is right-but-not-too-right. Casey is pretty far left. Populist, which plays in PA, but still pretty far left. If I were going to pick a candidate to run against Casey, I'd pick an everyman who had common views and the ability to express them. Hello, Tom Smith!