Intrade? Just Another Poll
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focus group. They don't have any more knowledge
than any other group, they just follow the polls and
the news more closely. And the closer the election gets,
the closer the Intrade percentages will get.
Remember when Bin Laden was killed? The % for
'Obama Wins 2012 Election' went from 52% to
about 75% overnight. Then a week later it was
down to 52% again. Intrade is just another poll,
its another way to measure the public pulse. Its
not the predictor or forecaster of anything.
Quote: FinsRuleAren't polls supposed to predict and forecast?
I think trends are for prediction. Polls should just be able to tell you within a margin of error what a the whole is thinking by only asking a few.
Quote: FinsRuleAren't polls supposed to predict and forecast?
Polls take the public pulse of something, they
can't predict anything.
Quote: EvenBobPolls take the public pulse of something, they
can't predict anything.
Well stated, and much like a person's pulse, it can rise and fall (rather abruptly) with varying circumstances. Similarly, once the pulse has spiked, it takes some time to return to its normal level, generally less time than does the spike itself.
Quote: EvenBobPolls take the public pulse of something, they
can't predict anything.
Well, definitionally, they predict with a 95% level of confidence that the actual public pulse is within x% of some number.
Can't help but notice that you picked today to bash intrade. Whatever did you see there that you didn't like? :-)
Quote: Mission146Well stated, and much like a person's pulse, it can rise and fall (rather abruptly) with varying circumstances. Similarly, once the pulse has spiked, it takes some time to return to its normal level, generally less time than does the spike itself.
And a person's pulse can predict their health. Not sure the point. Isn't the stock market one giant poll about a company?
Quote: FinsRuleAnd a person's pulse can predict their health. Not sure the point. Isn't the stock market one giant poll about a company?
Can predict v. will predict. I think EB's point is that people put too much faith in polls, not that they are always wrong, or even incorrect a majority of the time. If you have a near-collision with an oncoming vehicle going 95, your pulse rate should shoot through the roof, but it says nothing about your overall health.
The stock market...basically...but it's almost more about guessing what the poll results WILL BE rather than the actual poll in and of itself!
Quote: Mission146I think EB's point is that people put too much faith in polls, not that they are always wrong, or even incorrect a majority of the time. !
That last part is important. If they are right the majority of the time (or better than chance).
If they don't do better than chance in outcomes, they aren't useful for outcomes.
Quote: rdw4potusWhatever did you see there that you didn't like? :-)
Never been to the site. I read the Bin Laden
thing in an article. There are other political
betting sites than Intrade, they're all the
same. They go up and down with the news
of the day. The people betting aren't clairvoyant,
they don't have special gifts. They have the exact
access as everybody else to the facts.
They do have one thing polls don't have. They
can artificially drive results one way or the other
because they choose to. In a real poll you can't
do that. People assume because cash is
involved that its accurate. Somebody with money
could easily change the stats by betting on his
candidate just because he wants to see him in the
lead on Intrade, not because he thinks he'll win.
Like stuffing a ballot box.
Quote: FinsRuleAnd a person's pulse can predict their health.
It can? How? A doctor takes your pulse
and makes the prediction of what? You'll
be dead in a week? Thats some good doc,
you got his number?
Quote: EvenBobIt can? How? A doctor takes your pulse
and makes the prediction of what? You'll
be dead in a week? Thats some good doc,
you got his number?
1- Higher resting pulse is bad.
2- Why do doctors take pulses if the information is useless?
Quote: FinsRule1- Higher resting pulse is bad.
2- Why do doctors take pulses if the information is useless?
I said its useless? i'm asking what doctor in his right
mind makes a prediction? They make a
diagnosis. If my doctor said to me 'my prediction
for you is blah blah', I'd think he was nuts. In fact,
doctors get into a lot of trouble when they make
predictions, because they're often wrong. They
predict you have 6 months to live and 2 years
later you're still alive. Makes them look like idiots.
Quote: EvenBobI said its useless? i'm asking what doctor in his right
mind makes a prediction? They make a
diagnosis. If my doctor said to me 'my prediction
for you is blah blah', I'd think he was nuts. In fact,
doctors get into a lot of trouble when they make
predictions, because they're often wrong. They
predict you have 6 months to live and 2 years
later you're still alive. Makes them look like idiots.
So if you come into my clinic and your resting pulse is 120, I can't make the statement "I predict you're on the verge of having a giant heart-related event"? Or, to put into Intrade terms "Your VP selection didn't move your odds even 1%. I predict that you're going to lose in November."
Quote: bigfoot66The thing that intrade does is that it pools together all the information around an event in the best way,
If that were true, Obama wouldn't
have jumped 25% when Bin Laden
was shot. The people who bet on
Intrade aren't geniuses, they act and
react just like everybody else. Saying
the 'smart money' is at Intrade is the
biggest oxymoron I've ever heard.
Quote: EvenBobSaying
the 'smart money' is at Intrade is the
biggest oxymoron I've ever heard.
I doubt it. It's proven to be a good predictor, and that means that there's no way that the stupid money is at Intrade.
Quote: rdw4potusI doubt it. It's proven to be a good predictor, and that means that there's no way that the stupid money is at Intrade.
Nobody said it was. But saying its smarter than anywhere
else is just not true, how could it be. Do they have crystal
balls? Secret sources of info? They have nothing you and
I don't have.
Quote: EvenBobIf that were true, Obama wouldn't
have jumped 25% when Bin Laden
was shot. The people who bet on
Intrade aren't geniuses, they act and
react just like everybody else. Saying
the 'smart money' is at Intrade is the
biggest oxymoron I've ever heard.
I (somewhat) disagree. While it's true that predictions markets like InTrade can act irrationally, that is a result of the fact that the market isn't very big.
Markets jump around irrationally at times based on trading activity, but big enough markets correct themselves. That's part of the nature of the way humans trade these contracts.
Quote: EvenBobNobody said it was.
Sure you did. That's the definition of oxymoron. I just put the antonym of "smart" into my sentence to prove that your claim couldn't possibly be factually accurate:-)
Quote: rdw4potusSure you did.
I never said stupid money is at Intrade,
nor did I imply it. Its not smart or stupid,
its just average like everything else. The
closer to the election, the magically smarter
everybody will become.
Quote: EvenBobIf that were true, Obama wouldn't
have jumped 25% when Bin Laden
was shot. The people who bet on
Intrade aren't geniuses, they act and
react just like everybody else. Saying
the 'smart money' is at Intrade is the
biggest oxymoron I've ever heard.
You are smarter than this Bob. I never said that intrade %'s are 100% right all of the time. The beauty is in the fact that the market corrects itself and points us in the right direction if we look over the long term. Like one cannot determine the return of a gambling game based on a single trial, just because intrade was off for a few hours says nothing about it's long term accuracy.
I would agree that the people on intrade are average, not geniuses (though there are geniuses on intrade). The power is not in the participants, these are the same participants available everywhere. The power is in the profit/loss structure.
Quote: EvenBobI never said stupid money is at Intrade,
nor did I imply it.
You said that saying that the smart money is at Intrade is "the biggest oxymoron that (you've) ever heard." That means that you think that the opposite is true. That's what an oxymoron is. You really have very little wiggle room here...
Quote: bigfoot66I never said that intrade %'s are 100% right all of the time.
My point was, all these super smart people at
Intrade have ridiculous knee jerk reactions
just like investors in anything do. Gold,
stock market, real estste. Intrade has as
many and as few smart people as any place else.
Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare and who
was going to be Romney's veep. And they missed
it badly. Imagine that....
They also got wrong:
GOP Retention of Senate (2006)
Michael Jackson Trial Results
Howard Dean’s Iowa Primary
The 2008 New Hampshire Primary
Somebody said: The wisdom of crowds is wildly overstated . .
This is certainly true about Intrade. The price movement seems
to respond to conventional wisdom and polling data, its not
leading the polls, its following the polls. In the 2008 Dem
primary, it had Obama at 75% and Hillary at 25%, until the
voting booths closed. When early results started coming in,
Hillary shot all the way to 48% and Obama was 52%.
Intrade doesn't predict anything, they just parrot the current
wisdom and polls. Just what everybody else does.
Quote: EvenBobI just read the infallible Intrade missed both the
Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare and who
was going to be Romney's veep. And they missed
it badly. Imagine that....
They also got wrong:
GOP Retention of Senate (2006)
Michael Jackson Trial Results
Howard Dean’s Iowa Primary
The 2008 New Hampshire Primary
Somebody said: The wisdom of crowds is wildly overstated . .
This is certainly true about Intrade. The price movement seems
to respond to conventional wisdom and polling data, its not
leading the polls, its following the polls. In the 2008 Dem
primary, it had Obama at 75% and Hillary at 25%, until the
voting booths closed. When early results started coming in,
Hillary shot all the way to 48% and Obama was 52%.
Intrade doesn't predict anything, they just parrot the current
wisdom and polls. Just what everybody else does.
Yep. And the sports betting market made the Patriots a favorite over the Giants in the last Superbowl, so point spreads are clearly meaningless as well, right Bob?
nothing more. They can't and don't predict anything.
They react, they don't foretell.
Quote: EvenBobMy point is, Intrade is just another focus group,
nothing more. They can't and don't predict anything.
They react, they don't foretell.
You are on to something here, but it is not just another focus group. People vote with their dollars on intrade so it is a much more accurate reflection of human knowledge about the event in question than polling a group of people or a focus group, where everyone has an equal say. Those with no knowledge can abstain and those with more knowledge can cast more votes. They do foretell, based upon the past.
Quote: rdw4potusBob created this thread out of thin air, apparently just to bash Intrade. Why are we dedicating page after page to proving it's bad?
I'm doing that. There's no 'we' involved. I
never even looked at Intrade till yeaterday
and I'm appalled that so many pay any
attention to it and think its better than
anything else out there. Its not.
Quote: EvenBobI'm doing that. There's no 'we' involved. I
never even looked at Intrade till yeaterday
and I'm appalled that so many pay any
attention to it and think its better than
anything else out there. Its not.
Who are the people that you think it's better than anything else out there? Are those people here? if not, you're just wasting time & space...
Quote: rdw4potusWho are the people that you think it's better than anything else out there?.
There's nothing good this early. Wait till 4
days before the election and maybe somebody
will get it right.
