When/How Comes the Fall?

Here's the deal:

I'm predominantly a Slots player, as most of you guys know. I am up over $6,000 in the last two months, granted most of that is in the form of a $4000+ Jackpot on a Quickhits machine.

Let's say that Jackpot doesn't happen, though. The worst possible result that night was still a double because I was 2x+ when it happened.

If everything else goes the same way, except the jackpot, I'm still on the best two-month run of my life, excluding August-September of last year largely due to a $1,250 jackpot in September of last year.

I'm too disciplined for there to be a blow up. I thought about walking away at Scioto Downs because I was down less than $10 which included $10 beer/tip. I wasn't technically even down when I thought about taking a walk. If anything, I am undisciplined because if I set the result to be: lose x or win at least x, sometimes I will get frustrated and leave even before I lose x.

All of my credit cards are paid off and my bankroll savings account is the strongest it has been this year, that's AFTER using the bulk of the 4k to pay off all of my credit card balances. The blow-up is also impossible because I only carry the paper I am taking in, and I only carry one piece of plastic that I deliberately set with a $100 daily purchase limit. I would actually have to call the C.C. issuer and TELL them to let me make a purchase of over $100 that day. The rest of my plastic is in my safety deposit box at the bank. Lock and key.

I understand that the ER's/EV's are not going to change on me overnight, but I fear that a balance must be struck at some point and that an epic fall must be imminent.

The thing is, though, that I would have to get Nickel and Dimed, to death! I automatically add $50 to my bankroll savings account every month because, on December 1st, half of it gets pulled out and added to Christmas savings and the other half is carried over to the following year's bankroll. If we figure that I risk, at most, $100/week, (assuming that I go lose/lose, I might go more than 2x/week if winning) I have determined that I would have to have to lose every week between now and December 1st, and I would still have a BR of about $300 (assuming the $50/month add).

This would also never happen because I would get frustrated and quit for a month, or more. I did it last year because a bad run frustrated me. I didn't go from March-April...I think it was...I could pull last year's journal to verify...all because I lost $100/week three consecutive weeks! That's all it takes for me to go a few months without gambling at all, except the occasional $1.00-$2.00 scratch off. Those are stupid, I'm down about $200/lifetime on scratch-offs and I don't buy them very often!!! I probably buy $50/year in scratch-offs.

Will someone please tell me I am crazy and not, "Due," for a huge fall. I know that nobody is ever, "Due," for anything, but I have this irrational and paralyzing fear (despite going for 10x amount in machine on Keno last night) that I will, literally, never win again. I had a nightmare about it last night, I was forty and had not won, period, in twelve years. I never have nightmares.

There is absolutely no reason for me to have an epic fall, right?

How do you only lose $100 playing slots? Your money goes so quick, unless you're playing penny slots. But if you're playing pennies, it's so hard to end up ahead in a session.

Quote: FinsRule

How do you only lose $100 playing slots? Your money goes so quick, unless you're playing penny slots. But if you're playing pennies, it's so hard to end up ahead in a session.

I composed a lengthly response to this question, but I lost it because they put the Wireless connector/disconnector button in a really stupid place on this laptop, right beside the Shift key. It's an Acer Aspire 4315, you can look on-line on Google Images and probably see how stupid the position of this button is.

In any event, I don't have another twenty minutes right now, but will fully answer your question later.

Quote: Mission146

Here's the deal:

I'm predominantly a Slots player, as most of you guys know. I am up over $6,000 in the last two months, granted most of that is in the form of a $4000+ Jackpot on a Quickhits machine.

Let's say that Jackpot doesn't happen, though. The worst possible result that night was still a double because I was 2x+ when it happened.

If everything else goes the same way, except the jackpot, I'm still on the best two-month run of my life, excluding August-September of last year largely due to a $1,250 jackpot in September of last year.

I'm too disciplined for there to be a blow up.

I understand that the ER's/EV's are not going to change on me overnight, but I fear that a balance must be struck at some point and that an epic fall must be imminent.

The thing is, though, that I would have to get Nickel and Dimed, to death!

There is absolutely no reason for me to have an epic fall, right?

Sure, there is - but it won't happen all at once. Only after you are at the point where you have lost that $6000 will you realize that you have hit the ground after a very long fall.

You said it yourself - you will probably be nickel and dimed to death.

Look at it another way: suppose you buy $5 worth of lottery tickets a week, and one week you hit, say, $1000. However, you still buy just the $5 worth of tickets each week after that. You might end up losing the whole $1000 in a four-year span, but how can you have an "epic" fall?

You can only fall in one trip as high as you decided to climb.

If you enjoy the slots, keep playing the slots. You sound disciplined enough that you won't lose it all in one fell swoop. I don't think you have anything to worry about. The math says you are expected to lose it all, but maybe you'll hit another 4K (or bigger) jackpot.

Quote: FinsRule

How do you only lose $100 playing slots? Your money goes so quick, unless you're playing penny slots. But if you're playing pennies, it's so hard to end up ahead in a session.

I'm going to give you an example of how this works, and I usually would not go in with $100, that's per week, it would usually be $50.

There are two types of QuickHits machines at WI with perfectly graduated payouts. The number of lines you bet or the number of credits/line has absolutely no effect on your expected value because the pays are perfectly graduated.

The first one is 15 or 20 Lines at 1, 2, 3, 5 or 10 Credits per line, $0.01/machine.

The second one is 1, 2, 5, 10 or 20 Lines at 1, 2, 5, 10 or 25 Credits per line, $0.01/machine.

I would usually go with the former.

I would start with $50 in the machine.

If x<$150 but x>$100, then play up or down to the next round multiple of the starting amount. If x<$200 but x>$150, same thing. It goes on and on. If you have a good hit on Free Games and end up with $372.25 (or whatever) then you play up to $400 or down to $350.

If x<$35, reduce bet from $2.00/pull (20 at 10) to $1.00/pull (20 at 5).

If x<$25, reduce bet from $1.00/pull (20 at 5) to $0.60/pull (20 at 3)

If x<$15, reduce bet from $0.60/pull (20 at 3) to $0.40/pull (20 at 2)

If x<$5, quit and buy an OK cigar or reduce bet from $0.40/pull (20 at 2) to $0.20/pull (20 at 1).

If x increases to the next level, increase wager accordingly.

This accomplishes two things. The first one is that it increases your playing time so that a bad run doesn't make you have to leave within five minutes. The second thing it does is that it gives you the opportunity to make a comeback.

The goal of the top part is that I went into the casino with the intention to win or lose $50 of MY MONEY. The exact second that the machine adds the Credits to my balance is when it becomes my money. Anything between multiples of $50 is floating, it is nobody's money yet, "On the table," so to speak.

The coolest night that ever happened was when I somehow ended up with a ticket for $150.01. I took it to the American Original machine ($0.01) and played one line at $0.01/line. I hit for 100 Bonus Games immediately and the result ended up being exactly $30. I thought, "That's incredibly unlikely, I owe it to myself to keep at least $25 of that."

I decided to go to the $5.00/Line, One-Line, Max One Credit, 5 Times Pay machine. It was late, I was tired, going for quick severe variance. I hit a 1 for 1, then back to back 2 for 1's. I went on to lose the last three spins in a row. I walked out with $175, which was 350% of the starting amount. It could have only been 300.0xx% of the starting amount, but for that one penny!

Minimize your losses and always give yourself a chance to win more unless you land on an exact multiple organically. If you land on it organically, just quit. If I am over $150 but less than $200, then $150 is irrevocably mine (unless I went in with a greater amount playing double-or better-or nothing, very rare). The $150.01-$199.99 is the fifty I intended to lose. If I get between $200-$250, same thing.

I would say that I walk out ahead about 30% of the time, but that's at least double. I occasionally walk out with more than double. It ends up balancing out, and one day, it should balance out to 90% return on lifetime bets. I'm a bit over 100% lifetime return right now, but we'll see what happens.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Sure, there is - but it won't happen all at once. Only after you are at the point where you have lost that $6000 will you realize that you have hit the ground after a very long fall.

You said it yourself - you will probably be nickel and dimed to death.

Look at it another way: suppose you buy $5 worth of lottery tickets a week, and one week you hit, say, $1000. However, you still buy just the $5 worth of tickets each week after that. You might end up losing the whole $1000 in a four-year span, but how can you have an "epic" fall?

You can only fall in one trip as high as you decided to climb.

That's true, and it makes me feel a little better, but imagine me being forty years old, still an avid Slots Player, and I haven't won in twelve years!!! I lose $50 everytime for 12 years!!! It's theoretically possible. That's an epic fall!

I would, of course, swear off Slots (and probably any game except Poker) well before that 12-year mark, but you get the idea.

Quote: teddys

If you enjoy the slots, keep playing the slots. You sound disciplined enough that you won't lose it all in one fell swoop. I don't think you have anything to worry about. The math says you are expected to lose it all, but maybe you'll hit another 4K (or bigger) jackpot.

Thank you, Teddys.

It's nothing more than a re-distribution of wealth, really. I don't care what the game is, and I don't care if you are the player or the house, every win is a direct result of someone else losing. You couldn't win if someone before you did not lose, or in the case of a newly opened casino, if they didn't make an investment against the potential of you winning.

It is for that reason that I believe, despite what the Math says, that a lifetime is a limited enough amount of time that you can play fairly regularly (don't try to make a living out of Slots, obviously!) and as long as you never chase a loss and walk away every time you have doubled, it is possible (just less likely than losing) to be over the ER, and possibly over 100% for your lifetime.

My plan is just to have fun and enjoy the decent-big hits when they come, though. I'm just there for the fun, really. The same thing with the Tables, except I count at Blackjack (small spread) because there is really no compelling reason to play in a fashion that makes my odds worse.

This is really a great topic that I think about quite often, especially given my preference for VP games with higher variance (e.g. Trip Doub bonus). There is truly an ebb and flow to chance, isn't there?

You should have no real reason to expect an epic fail, IMO. The variance wheel will almost certainly spin you the other direction sometime over the next 12 months. But if you maintain your discipline and control, then the overall outcome should not be epic. ;-)

Quote: midwestgb

This is really a great topic that I think about quite often, especially given my preference for VP games with higher variance (e.g. Trip Doub bonus). There is truly an ebb and flow to chance, isn't there?

You should have no real reason to expect an epic fail, IMO. The variance wheel will almost certainly spin you the other direction sometime over the next 12 months. But if you maintain your discipline and control, then the overall outcome should not be epic. ;-)

It does seem that way. It's kind of like that thread I posted where either 00, 16 or 32 were the result for eight Roulette spins in a row. Those results were also 9/10 (there was a sixteen two spins before) even though we should always be theoretically approaching the EV it seems to go in streaks.

This will be my third day in a row with no kind of gambling. I'm probably just going to wait two-three weeks until I can fully shake this feeling of foreboding. That nightmare really shook me up, for whatever reason. If I lose $50, I'll probably wait another two weeks and so on. It's crazy how that silly nightmare disturbed me, I don't even understand why I would have such a nightmare.