Random draw
July 10th, 2012 at 1:05:08 PM
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We are going to have a 10 person draw (numbers in a hat) for a bet picking the to ten players for a draft. Question is, does the first person to draw have better odds of picking the number 1 player than the rest to the drawers? What would the odds be for the first to draw, then second on down?
July 10th, 2012 at 1:19:13 PM
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No.
Everyone has the same chance. Unless you can actually see the numbers if you sneak a peak in the hat... Then it depends on how easy they are to see.
Everyone has the same chance. Unless you can actually see the numbers if you sneak a peak in the hat... Then it depends on how easy they are to see.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
July 10th, 2012 at 1:21:48 PM
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the first person to draw has a 13.673% advantage.
July 10th, 2012 at 1:29:05 PM
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How is that? How can I do the math?
July 10th, 2012 at 1:35:41 PM
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Just joshing. It's one chance in 10 for everybody. Think about it. But if nobody draws the number 1 in the first nine picks, the last guy to draw has a 100% chance of drawing #1.
You could always have guys draws number 1 to 10 to see in what order they draw for the actual picks !
You could always have guys draws number 1 to 10 to see in what order they draw for the actual picks !
July 10th, 2012 at 1:49:44 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffthe first person to draw has a 13.673% advantage.
I came up with 14.272%. Where did I mess up?
July 10th, 2012 at 1:50:08 PM
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Everyone has equal probability.
HOWEVER, if the people before you reveal their numbers, then it changes your odds. Obviously, if nobody got #1, your odds are up. If someone got it, your chance is zero.
If all folded papers remain secret, then everyone still has the same chance.
For this reason, some people/groups try to enforce the rule that nobody unfold the paper until everyone has selected.
HOWEVER, if the people before you reveal their numbers, then it changes your odds. Obviously, if nobody got #1, your odds are up. If someone got it, your chance is zero.
If all folded papers remain secret, then everyone still has the same chance.
For this reason, some people/groups try to enforce the rule that nobody unfold the paper until everyone has selected.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 10th, 2012 at 1:51:12 PM
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Quote: RoundManI came up with 14.272%. Where did I mess up?
You forget to factor in the Obama Care tax.
July 10th, 2012 at 2:03:58 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearEveryone has equal probability.
HOWEVER, if the people before you reveal their numbers, then it changes your odds. Obviously, if nobody got #1, your odds are up. If someone got it, your chance is zero.
If all folded papers remain secret, then everyone still has the same chance.
For this reason, some people/groups try to enforce the rule that nobody unfold the paper until everyone has selected.
I don't think so. What does unfolding the paper have to do with it? If you are getting at the fact that you can recalculate your odds based on the remaining choices after the first few people have removed some, that is irrelevant.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
July 10th, 2012 at 6:43:15 PM
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It's the same as in poker when you're all in with more cards to come and someone tells you they folded one of your outs. Immediately your outlook isn't so good.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
