1000x Odds!

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February 22nd, 2012 at 5:56:10 PM permalink
pacomartin
Member since: Jan 14, 2010
Threads: 639
Posts: 7768
Quote: SOOPOO
Then the Riviera will have succeeded.


The Riviera is right next to the convention center. It may not be too much to expect that a hundred people a day will stop at the Riviera before going back to their fancier digs just to see if anyone is playing $5K on the pass line.

In theory, the expected value on the 1000x odds bet at the end of the year is $0. That is a relatively inexpensive promotion where business regularly drop a million dollars on some attraction that is expected to draw in people. The only way it would cost the casino something is if the fleas that are betting there already take their money out of the slot machines, and put it on the line bet in craps. It's a pretty safe assumption that the guys playing this high end game will be new customers.

The combined house advantage of the $5 line bet and the $5000 free odds is
1.41414141% divided by 667.66666666 = 0.00211803507% or an expectation of $1 for every $47K bet.
Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear
February 22nd, 2012 at 5:58:26 PM permalink
klimate10
Member since: Feb 6, 2012
Threads: 19
Posts: 197
Ditto, Teddys.

Bet $5005 at craps with 1000x odds, expected loss is 7.5cents.

Bet $5005 at Bac, the expected loss is about $50. That's a monster difference.

1000x odds is AWESOME!!
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:09:35 PM permalink
klimate10
Member since: Feb 6, 2012
Threads: 19
Posts: 197
BTW, it does cost the casino money on the odds bet.

While the casino does not make money on the odds bet itself, there is a loss in that it will cause people to bet on the odds, rather than on something where the house does make money.

It is analogous to this...if you intend to spend $100 at the supermarket, and you see a loss leader where the supermarket makes no money on the product, and you wind up spending your budget on the loss leader, the supermarket did not make money on the loss leader, but the supermarket lost money because, if not for the loss leader spending, it would have made money on the products what you would have purchased otherwise.

It's the same thing at the craps table. If you are going to bet $100 per roll (or per hand, whatever), and you would have bet it place bets of $25 each on whatever numbers, the house would have made money on those place bets. But if you instead bet on the odds, the house is technically losing money BECAUSE IT IS NOT MAKING MONEY.

I run a successful business (AlanMendelson just finished, today, shooting one of my infomercials, and we were arguing about odds at craps), and as a business owner, every minute that ticks by costs me money. Unless I am making money, I am losing money. It's the same thing for the casino. When the casino's time is going by, and people are betting odds, they run out of time to pay the bonds, the taxes, the employees, etc. Time is money. That's why it mystifies me when people in this thread knock the Riviera for giving 1000x odds. Whether or not people use it, it will definitely divert action away from the more profitable house bets. THATS A GOOD DEAL for the players.

If the house is losing money, the players are making money BECAUSE THEY"LL BE LESS LIKELY TO BET STUPID STUFF LIKE THE HORN OR THE YO!!
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:17:56 PM permalink
Tiltpoul
Member since: May 5, 2010
Threads: 32
Posts: 1573
Quote: klimate10
If the house is losing money, the players are making money BECAUSE THEY"LL BE LESS LIKELY TO BET STUPID STUFF LIKE THE HORN OR THE YO!!


The thing is, large action players enjoy playing bets on the Horn and Hardaways. All this does is appeal to the people on this website who wouldn't go to the Riviera for any other reason. It's funny, really. We all talk about wanting the best odds and best games available, and Riviera is doing it, and it didn't make me want to play there any more when I was there. I enjoyed seeing the games (single deck and single zero roulette) but I was still so grossed out by the casino that I didn't want to spend my money there.

If somebody is playing those kinds of odds, my guess is they are also making 1000 dollar Horns.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:30:35 PM permalink
klimate10
Member since: Feb 6, 2012
Threads: 19
Posts: 197
Well, thats true.

The most common form of whale craps that I see is $10,000 each on the hardways. $5000 horn high YO. $10,000 on the pass, and $5 on the odds (half joking).
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:40:34 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 642
Posts: 11845
I'm seriously considering removing references on my site to the "combined house edge" in craps, and this promotion is an illustrated example why. 1000x odds sounds ten times better than 100x odds, but is it? At a $5 pass line bet, only those willing to bet over $500 on the odds would see any benefit. I don't think the Riviera is going to see many players like that.

Furthermore, it seems to me that odds bets make up roughly 20% of the total bets on the table. Most players make timid pass and odds bets and then get aggressive the the place bets and the prop bets. I'm gravitating to more of an outlook of judging a casino by the house edge on all its craps bets, not just the odds. Yes, that is all the sharp players care about, but what percentage of player stick strictly to line bets and odds? I'd estimate about 10%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:51:22 PM permalink
thefish2010
Member since: Dec 24, 2009
Threads: 5
Posts: 50
Quote: Wizard
I'm seriously considering removing references on my site to the "combined house edge" in craps, and this promotion is an illustrated example why. 1000x odds sounds ten times better than 100x odds, but is it? At a $5 pass line bet, only those willing to bet over $500 on the odds would see any benefit. I don't think the Riviera is going to see many players like that.

Furthermore, it seems to me that odds bets make up roughly 20% of the total bets on the table. Most players make timid pass and odds bets and then get aggressive the the place bets and the prop bets. I'm gravitating to more of an outlook of judging a casino by the house edge on all its craps bets, not just the odds. Yes, that is all the sharp players care about, but what percentage of player stick strictly to line bets and odds? I'd estimate about 10%.


Do "sharp" players even play craps? Any way you slice it, it's a negative expectation game. Higher odds just increase potential variance while keeping the tax one must pay to experience that variance small relative to other negative expectation games. "Only" paying 7.5 cents to experience up to $10K of positive variance on a single roll may be fun and is a good value relative to other house games, but in the long run, you will still have lost 7.5 cents.
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:52:42 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Nov 11, 2009
Threads: 367
Posts: 11375
Quote: Wizard
Yes, that is all the sharp players care about, but what percentage of player stick strictly to line bets and odds? I'd estimate about 10%.


We know from personal testimony even some assiduous posters here do place and prop bets, so you ahve a very good point.

I wonder, though, if the Riviera hopes to attract high rollers? I mean, a man who bets thousands per rool, say with a $500 PL plus full Strip odds, might find 1000X more attractive.
You can visit my blog Kathy's Cooking Corner at kathyscookingcorner.blogspot.mx ... .... When someone offers you friendship with one hand and stabs you in the back with the other, you tend to notice the knife a little bit more.
February 22nd, 2012 at 7:00:38 PM permalink
klimate10
Member since: Feb 6, 2012
Threads: 19
Posts: 197
I just booked my ticket to Riviera. See you guys there this weekend.

I called the pit and they verified 1000x odds is going on right now.

Come say hi and play craps with me.

Alan, come to the Riviera!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'll be there all weekend. 200x odds, here I come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 22nd, 2012 at 7:03:01 PM permalink
YoDiceRoll11
Member since: Jan 9, 2012
Threads: 7
Posts: 532
If you were a smart craps player, you wouldn't be betting the field (at that %) OR hop bets.....ever. So I really don't care much about it.

But that's my opinion.

1000x odds is just too gimmicky. What kinda high roller wants to play at the.....Riviera. Blegh.

 

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