$3000 FP, Limited Options, What would you do?
August 4th, 2017 at 7:27:08 AM
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So you have $3000 you must run through with only these 2 options both at $25 spin with the goal of having the best chance at the most cash out left.
Option A: 120 Spins on a $5 9/6 @ 99.54
Option B: 120 Spins on a 100 play .05 DW44 98.91
Assuming perfect play and you probably won't hit a Royal, what would you do with such a limited sampling?
And yes this is a hypothetical so other options are not an option.
Option A: 120 Spins on a $5 9/6 @ 99.54
Option B: 120 Spins on a 100 play .05 DW44 98.91
Assuming perfect play and you probably won't hit a Royal, what would you do with such a limited sampling?
And yes this is a hypothetical so other options are not an option.
Last edited by: Boz on Aug 4, 2017
August 4th, 2017 at 8:28:54 AM
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If your goal is ending up with as close to $3000 as possible, the choice is B. It can't possibly be A due to the massively increased variance.
That's like asking if you goal is getting wet would you
A) Jump in the ocean
B) Sit on the sand
That's like asking if you goal is getting wet would you
A) Jump in the ocean
B) Sit on the sand
August 4th, 2017 at 9:25:08 AM
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Thanks for the reply.
August 4th, 2017 at 10:46:57 AM
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Exposing my ignorance to ask, but 9/6 what? JOB? DDB? Bonus? Something else?
Seems like you'd be pretty lucky to find DW44 @.05. I'll have to look around...
Seems like you'd be pretty lucky to find DW44 @.05. I'll have to look around...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 4th, 2017 at 11:04:14 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsExposing my ignorance to ask, but 9/6 what? JOB? DDB? Bonus? Something else?
Seems like you'd be pretty lucky to find DW44 @.05. I'll have to look around...
Was talking JoB, sorry. The other one is out there, at least according to VP Free at 100 play.
Since it's VPFree hopefully I'm not giving anything out to hurt anyone.
August 4th, 2017 at 11:26:09 AM
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We have 5 and 10 cent DW44 in 50 play here.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 9th, 2017 at 12:28:49 AM
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I would play the $5 JoB --- to me the 0.6% in extra EV (e.g. $18) trumps everything else.
But bankroll isn't an issue for me. A $20K would be nice but it's not a life-changing amount for me. it's just a daily swing. Continually chasing the highest-EV options has served me in good stead. Ending up with $2,000 wouldn't be devastating to me --- and ending up with more than $20K wouldn't be that remarkable of an event.
If you're a smaller player and $3,000 is "a lot" of money to you, maybe you go for the Hundred Play. But I wouldn't.
But bankroll isn't an issue for me. A $20K would be nice but it's not a life-changing amount for me. it's just a daily swing. Continually chasing the highest-EV options has served me in good stead. Ending up with $2,000 wouldn't be devastating to me --- and ending up with more than $20K wouldn't be that remarkable of an event.
If you're a smaller player and $3,000 is "a lot" of money to you, maybe you go for the Hundred Play. But I wouldn't.
August 9th, 2017 at 7:50:40 AM
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The unknown variable that can make it a very close EV call is how a w2g affects your tax situation. If you hit a ton of w2g's in a year it's just whatever the EV of the game is, if you only hit 1-2 a year and are a winning player at years end, you can probably chop roughly 0.7% off the 9/6 jacks effective return for the royal and straight flush w2g's. That can make deuces virtually the same return and lower variance. If you play less than 60 lines (wasn't an option given but you can play less than 100 lines if you choose) on the 98.9 deuces you're only going to hit a taxable in the case of a dealt royal (poor guy).
