turbostat
turbostat
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February 21st, 2014 at 9:48:43 PM permalink
Quote:

It is also interesting to note that in land casinos cash back does not apply to double-up bets but at Playtech Internet casinos you get 0.1% cash on all bets, including the double-up.



so, if we get cashback for double up, than double up is +ev game, but how to count an average he for 1, 2, 3 and etc double up?

"probability for each combination" * 0.5 Is it correct for 1 double up?
"probability for each combination" * 0.5 * 0.5 Is it correct for 2 double up?

how much double ups need for breakeven point on standard JoB? how it change if we have 0.125 cashback?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 21st, 2014 at 10:12:49 PM permalink
Quote: turbostat

so, if we get cashback for double up, than double up is +ev game, but how to count an average he for 1, 2, 3 and etc double up?

"probability for each combination" * 0.5 Is it correct for 1 double up?
"probability for each combination" * 0.5 * 0.5 Is it correct for 2 double up?

how much double ups need for breakeven point on standard JoB? how it change if we have 0.125 cashback?

probably never at a Playtech casino. You will be back in 1 months complaining its rigged. Save yourself the time and problems
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
turbostat
turbostat
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February 22nd, 2014 at 1:32:19 AM permalink
I played on playtech. I trust him.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2014 at 4:22:29 AM permalink
Quote: turbostat

I played on playtech. I trust him.

Tell me that after a few months of solid play
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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February 22nd, 2014 at 5:06:15 AM permalink
OP, you're still going to lose and the double up won't stop it or affect the house edge.
I am a robot.
turbostat
turbostat
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February 23rd, 2014 at 1:04:03 PM permalink
they give points for playing on megajacks (standard 9/6 VoP jackpot). so, the breakeven for megajacks is x976 for RF. you do not need to wait x976 with cashback for double up. I want to know, what is the jackpot size will be for a breakeven point?
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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February 23rd, 2014 at 1:16:36 PM permalink
Break even point: Either wait until you find the leprechan's pot of fool's pot of gold or listen to the advice of axelwolf and don't get involved.
I am a robot.
turbostat
turbostat
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February 23rd, 2014 at 1:29:11 PM permalink
will it not be +ev even with unlimited double up option?
drrock2
drrock2
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February 23rd, 2014 at 5:00:45 PM permalink
A fair game of 9/6 Jacks or Better played perfectly with 0.001 cashback on every wager including 50/50 double-ups will yield 100.04208% if there are 4 double-ups on every win. So, +EV is possible if you believe all the assumptions. Of course, the variance will have been multiplied by close to 17; so Risk of Ruin will require quite a bankroll plus a lot of time (not to mention fair "flips" for royal payoffs). Rhetorical question: Willing to double up 4 times on each royal where 15 of 16 times you will bust down to zero + cashback? Good luck.

If you are willing to double up the same number of times (n) on each win, the formula for EV with cashback seems to reduce down to (1 + cashback % * n) x Regular Perfect Play EV + cashback %. A general formula for the variance seems a bit more complicated.
RS
RS
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February 24th, 2014 at 1:55:25 PM permalink
Couldn't you just opt out of doubling up on any high variance play (4oaks or higher)? It doesn't hurt you, just means you aren't getting as much cash back.
drrock2
drrock2
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February 24th, 2014 at 4:43:28 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Couldn't you just opt out of doubling up on any high variance play (4oaks or higher)? It doesn't hurt you, just means you aren't getting as much cash back.

Of course your question is rhetorical in that you can do anything that you want. Yes, this gets you lower variance, but when you work out the math there are some logical inconsistencies. The variance is now only a little more than 3 times as large (63.25). There is some hurt to the EV if you follow the scenario above. First the edge moves from the tiny 0.0421% to an even more miniscule 0.008%. And if you are not going to double up a 125 coin win on quads, you probably wouldn't want the 3rd double on a full house, which bets 180 to try for 360 coins, much less try for the 4th double. And if you are not going to do that, your edge fully evaporates. Even the 4th double up on trips risks 120 coins to get 240. A 5th double up on Two Pairs or a 6th double up on a high pair puts you in the same situation.

Certainly there are innumerable options, but to get to (and beyond) a breakeven EV, you're going to need to risk some serious bet sizes on 50/50 wagers.
turbostat
turbostat
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February 25th, 2014 at 4:50:56 PM permalink
thanks drrock2

sorry, but i don't understand your formula

Quote:

(1 + cashback % * n) x Regular Perfect Play EV + cashback %



for 4 double up is looks like (1+0.1*4)*(-0.5)+0.1 Where I make a mistake?
drrock2
drrock2
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February 25th, 2014 at 8:41:33 PM permalink
EV = (1+0.001*4)*(0.995439043695)+0.001 = 1.000420799870
turbostat
turbostat
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February 27th, 2014 at 3:35:27 PM permalink
thanks, I appreciate it.

it's looks good with 0.125% cashback. 1.00042 for 3 double up and 1.00166 for 4 or just 1 double up with x976 RF JP give 1.0025
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