gordonm888
gordonm888
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September 26th, 2016 at 2:08:28 PM permalink
I am creating an inventory of “hand categories” for which the player can sometime get a better outcome in the Face-Up mode of the 7-Up Pai Gow game versus standard strategy for playing Pai-Gow Poker and estimating the improvement in overall HE (over standard Pai Gow) for each category.

My nomenclature is:
(L/L to L/W) means player faces a Loss in both the front and back when hand is set the conventional way but can (sometimes) convert to a Loss in the front and a Win by rearranging cards

Here are 19 situations in which the player can change his hand arrangement to improve his outcome in Face-Up. I’ve also included my estimated effect of how the Face Up feature changes the overall House Edge for the first 5 categories (this is a work in progress.) These HE estimates do not “Push on Ace High Pai Gow or No Commission, but the effects of these rules should be pretty separable.

1. J-High vs Dealer J-High ( L/L to L/W)by playing the two lowest kickers in front , HE= -0.003%
2. Q-High vs Dealer Q-High (L/L to L/W) by playing the two lowest kickers in front, HE= - 0.013%
3. K-High vs Dealer K-High (L/L to L/W) by playing the two lowest kickers in front, HE= -0.067%
Ex: Dealer: QJ/K963 Player: JT/K8732 can be rearranged to 32/KJT87
4. One Pair hands (22-AA) vs Dealer backhand with identical pair(L/L to L/W) can strengthen back by playing the two lowest kickers in front, HE = - 0.98%
EX: Dealer AT/77-QJ8 Player: KJ/77-942 rearranges to 42/77-KJ9 and gets a Push
5. One Pair hands (77-AA) (L/L to W/L) by splitting the pair and strengthening the front, HE= -1.15% (estimate includes only AA pair hands so far)
6. Two Pair (normally split) vs. Higher One-Pair or (lower) Two Pair played in Back (L/L to L/W)
7. Two Pair (Normally kept together in back) vs. Higher Front (L/W to W/W) or (L/L to W/L) by splitting the pairs
8. Trips (555 to KKK) (Normally kept together in back) vs. Higher Front (L/W to W/W) or (L/L to W/L) by splitting the pairs
9. Trips (KKK to AAA) (normally split) vs Dealer back hand with KK,AA, 2 pair, lower trips) (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W) by keeping the Trips together
10. Three Pair vs Dealer Three Pair with higher Top Pair and Higher 2nd Pair (L/L to L/W) by playing lowest pair in front
EX: Dealer AA/TT-44-x Player: KK/99-66-x can rearrange to 66/KK-99 to get a Push
11. Straight (No Pair or entangled pair) vs. Dealer Pai-Gow with higher front hand (L/W to W/W) by breaking up the straight
EX: Dealer: QT/K9632 Player: 78/AKQJT rearranges to K7/AQJT8 to get a Win
12. Straight (No Pair or entangled pair) vs Dealer Flush with higher front hand (L/L to W/L) by breaking up the straight
Ex: Dealer: QT/A9632(suited) Player: 78/AKQJT rearranges to K7/AQJT8 to get a Push
13. 6-7 card Straight vs Dealer Straight that is identical or slightly higher (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W)
Ex: Dealer: Q2/T9876 Player: AJ/T9876 can be rearranged to A6/JT987 to get a Win.
Ex: Dealer: Q2/98765 Player: JT/98765 can be rearranged to 65/JT987 to get a Push.
14. Flush (No Pair) vs. Dealer Pai-Gow with higher front hand (L/W to W/W) by breaking up the flush
15. 6-7 card Flush vs Dealer Flush that is higher (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W)
Ex: Dealer 6c2d/QhJh8h4h3h Player Jok-Td/Js9s7s6s2s can be rearranged to have an A-high flush in the back as Td9s/Jok-
16. Straight with two entangled pairs (played as 2-pair) vs. Dealer with higher 2-pair or lower straight in back (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W) , play the straight in back
Ex: Dealer 77/65432 Player: 66/88-754 can rearrange to 86/87654 to get a Push.
17. Flush with two entangled pairs (played as 2-pair) vs. Dealer with higher pair/2-pair, a straight or lower Flush in back (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W)
Ex: Dealer QT/AA-732 Player: 88/KK-J94 can rearrange to K8/KJ984(flush) to get a WIN
18. Full House or Two Trips (normally split) vs higher Dealer Full House (L/L to L/W) by keeping the Full House together in back
Ex: Dealer: AA/KKK-xx Player: 77/666-Q2 can be rearranged to Q2/666-77 to get a push.
19. Quads (normally split) vs Dealer with Trips or higher in the back hand (L/L to L/W) or (W/W to L/W) by keeping the quads together in the back
Ex: Dealer: AA/KKK-54 Player: QQ/QQ-982 can be rearranged to 98/QQQQ-4

I'd appreciate comments - what did I miss? Did I make any errors in compiling the above?
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Sep 26, 2016
y2d2
y2d2
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September 26th, 2016 at 2:08:45 PM permalink
Only thing I hate is the"casino style" format vs "card room style". I like being able to bet on as few or many hands as I want, regardless of my seating position. If I'm in seat 2 at a full table in a casino for instance, they will only allow me to side-bet on #1 or #3. If in #1, only on #2 and if on #6, only on #5. And depending on which floor person is on duty and how clueless they are about the rules, they will sometimes allow me to "jump an empty spot" to side-bet, or only allow side betting on physically adjacent seats. For example, if seats 1,2,4,5,6 are occupied (seat 3 empty) with me at #4, some floor staff will allow me to side-bet on #2 & #5, some will only allow me to side-bet on #5 because of their faulty and subjective interpretation of the rules. Absolutely ridiculous, and is common in EVERY casino I've played at.

I'd MUCH prefer dice over computer as well. It's not so much that I don't trust the fairness of the RNG, it's just an inner psychological thing where I want the dice shook and results set at the time of shake, so that I'm not a victim (or recipient) of a mini "butterfly effect" of timing on the button push. In other words, I'd happily accept a compromise of having the starting hand # set prior to me placing my bet. By computer or cards or dice or anything.
y2d2
y2d2
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September 26th, 2016 at 3:01:14 PM permalink
How do any of those player advantages increase the house edge, instead of lowering?
gordonm888
gordonm888
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September 26th, 2016 at 4:25:00 PM permalink
Quote: y2d2

How do any of those player advantages increase the house edge, instead of lowering?



Thank you for pointing that out. I originally had that listed as the effect on player EV, but I changed it to HE to make it more clear and I forgot to put in the minus signs. I have edited the post and corrected it.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 26th, 2016 at 6:56:36 PM permalink
Full house for player versus straight or flush for house.
y2d2
y2d2
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September 26th, 2016 at 11:52:17 PM permalink
Two trips for player vs dealer trips or full house (W/L to W/W or L/L to L/W, second part covered by #18)

Player 99/5559x vs dealer 44/777xx or xx/777xx

Into 55/9995x

Or (covered by #18)

Player 99/5559x vs dealer TT/JJJxx

Into 9x/55599
Last edited by: y2d2 on Sep 27, 2016
gordonm888
gordonm888
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September 27th, 2016 at 10:18:03 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm


Thank You Gordon!! So we are looking at something around 8.75% of hands the player is going to see the dealer A High Pai Gow and not like the outcome. Getting close to 1 in 12 hands which isn't bad.



No, not exactly. I've completed the calculation so here are the results:

In conventional Pai Gow Poker, when Dealer has a 7-card Ace-High (Pai Gow) hand, which occurs with a frequency of 9.79%

Players wins: 6.40%
Player pushes: 2.35%
Player loses: 1.04%

In 7-Up these hands are automatically converted to a push. With commission, the net impact on HE of "Push On Ace-High" is to increase it by 5.04%.
Deucekies
Deucekies
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September 27th, 2016 at 10:42:20 AM permalink
If you play two hands in this game, are you allowed to set both of them? Often when playing two hands on Pai Gow, the second hand must be set by the dealer and must be set houseway. If that's the case here, that really makes playing that second hand a losing idea.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
y2d2
y2d2
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September 27th, 2016 at 11:55:49 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

If you play two hands in this game, are you allowed to set both of them?


Yes
y2d2
y2d2
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September 27th, 2016 at 6:15:29 PM permalink
Quote: y2d2

Yes




Third night degenning this game this week.

Think I'm hooked.

Better quit now.

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