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Wizard
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June 11th, 2015 at 10:09:21 AM permalink
I just saw a pair of side bets at the Palace Casino in La Center Washington. For all the rules and analysis, please see my new page on Lucky 8. As always, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.

The question for the poll is would you play Lucky 8?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
LoquaciousMoFW
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June 11th, 2015 at 10:43:27 AM permalink
Wiz, I think you have the wrong domain name in the link (WoV rather than WoO) :)
RonC
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June 11th, 2015 at 10:48:17 AM permalink
Quote: LoquaciousMoFW

Wiz, I think you have the wrong domain name in the link (WoV rather than WoO) :)



yep...I typed in Odds and got to the page...

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/side-bets/lucky8/
RonC
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June 11th, 2015 at 10:50:47 AM permalink
Does not look like a side bet that I would make.
MathExtremist
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June 11th, 2015 at 11:38:52 AM permalink
On the paytable, the payout for the "Lucky 8" outcome is 4. Bad form.
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charliepatrick
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June 11th, 2015 at 12:07:08 PM permalink
Much more interesting if it paid 8/1 (9 for 1) for a winning 8 and lost otherwise. But then it would probably be countable.
Wizard
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June 11th, 2015 at 1:38:19 PM permalink
Quote: LoquaciousMoFW

Wiz, I think you have the wrong domain name in the link (WoV rather than WoO) :)



Thanks!

Quote: charliepatrick

Much more interesting if it paid 8/1 (9 for 1) for a winning 8 and lost otherwise. But then it would probably be countable.



There was such a bet at the Marina Bay Sands in Singapore for a short while.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teliot
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June 11th, 2015 at 2:34:00 PM permalink
Mike, I don't understand this payout item.

Suited 3-card 8: Only the chosen hand (Player or Banker) has a 3-card card total of 8.

Can you explain this? In particular clarify what the other hand can be, and fix "3-card card" to be what you meant it to be.

Here is how I coded this for the Banker side, where gN is the number of ways that sequence of six cards can occur, y is the Banker's total and x is the Player's total.


if (y == 8 && x == 8\
&& bankerThreeCardSuited(a,b,c,d,e,f)\
&& playerThreeCardSuited(a,b,c,d,e,f))
paysB[0] += gN;
else
if (y == 8 && x != 8 && bankerThreeCardSuited(a,b,c,d,e,f))
paysB[1] += gN;
else
if (y == 8 && x == 8)
paysB[2] += gN;
else
if (y == 8 && x == 9)
paysB[3] += gN;
else
if (y == 8 && x < 8)
paysB[4] += gN;
else
paysB[5] += gN;

Obviously, I am getting different results from you.

Thanks.
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UCivan
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June 11th, 2015 at 3:20:21 PM permalink
teliot / Wizard, This has to be very countable, right?
teliot
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June 11th, 2015 at 3:44:27 PM permalink
Quote: UCivan

teliot / Wizard, This has to be very countable, right?

Yes. That's why I have already gotten to work on it. But, Mike's second rule for the bet is not at all clear and I can't duplicate his results. So, I am in waiting mode for Mike's response.
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DJTeddyBear
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June 11th, 2015 at 3:45:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Suited 3-card 8: Only the chosen hand (Player or Banker) has a 3-card card total of 8.


What's the 'chosen hand'? The hand that your regular bet is on? What if you sit out a hand or bet the tie?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
teliot
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June 11th, 2015 at 3:46:10 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

What's the 'chosen hand'? The hand that your regular bet is on? What if you sit out a hand or bet the tie?

The side you make the side bet on. It's really two different bets.
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miplet
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June 11th, 2015 at 4:03:50 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Yes. That's why I have already gotten to work on it. But, Mike's second rule for the bet is not at all clear and I can't duplicate his results. So, I am in waiting mode for Mike's response.


WSGC rules also give different house edges than Mike. Doing my own analysis too.
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teliot
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June 11th, 2015 at 4:13:58 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

WSGC rules also give different house edges than Mike. Doing my own analysis too.

Very helpful.
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AxelWolf
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June 11th, 2015 at 4:27:24 PM permalink
Quote: UCivan

teliot / Wizard, This has to be very countable, right?

Quote: teliot

Yes. That's why I have already gotten to work on it. But, Mike's second rule for the bet is not at all clear and I can't duplicate his results. So, I am in waiting mode for Mike's response.

And this is a perfect example of why if when you do find something, and you care about having opportunities, not to post up in public forums about it. If you need help figuring something out PM someone and ask.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
teliot
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June 11th, 2015 at 4:33:28 PM permalink
My numbers match those from Galaxy in the posted document, but don't match Mike's numbers:

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UCivan
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June 11th, 2015 at 4:36:42 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

And this is a perfect example of why if when you do find something, and you care about having opportunities, not to post up in public forums about it. If you need help figuring something out PM someone and ask.


Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
teliot
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June 11th, 2015 at 4:38:38 PM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.

"Almost" excludes many opportunities that are ongoing that I don't find out about until they are burnt out. I don't think Lucky 8 will rise to that level, my intuition says "not so much," at least with this pay table.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
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MrCasinoGames
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June 11th, 2015 at 9:41:35 PM permalink
Lucky 8 was play in UK on 01 July 2012 (see link below).

Click here for Lucky 8 in UK.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 12:04:02 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: UCivan

Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.

"Almost" excludes many opportunities that are ongoing that I don't find out about until they are burnt out. I don't think Lucky 8 will rise to that level, my intuition says "not so much," at least with this pay table.



We have analysed it few months ago and our results match yours.

You are correct, there are more opportunities out there. The better pay table,3/8/25/50/200. The HE(Banker) = -9.722365%, HE(Palyer) = -6.149328%.

8 decks, cut card put at 14 cards from bottom, Lucky 8(Player), EV/shoe=0.93 unit( Unbalanced RC system), EV/shoe=0.97 unit(True Count system)
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 12:19:22 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.




Not really, he only covered 65%+- of the baccarat sidebets that we have analysed.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
UCivan
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:28:46 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: UCivan

Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.




Not really, he only covered 65%+- of the baccarat sidebets that we have analysed.

Did U publish them? What is your site?
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:37:04 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Did U publish them? What is your site?

Heh 8-). Ssho88 is a professional full-time AP. One of the very best on this site. He was recently on a cruise playing against a side bet, which is probably burnt out now.
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ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:39:14 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Quote: ssho88

Quote: UCivan

Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.




Not really, he only covered 65%+- of the baccarat sidebets that we have analysed.

Did U publish them? What is your site?



It's ONLY for our team. Sorry mate.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
Ibeatyouraces
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:40:58 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

...It's ONLY for our team. Sorry mate.


Great answer!!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
UCivan
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:44:23 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: UCivan

Quote: ssho88

Quote: UCivan

Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.




Not really, he only covered 65%+- of the baccarat sidebets that we have analysed.

Did U publish them? What is your site?



It's ONLY for our team. Sorry mate.

No apology needed, we also have analyzed all side bets, just have not published them.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 8, 2024
ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:44:55 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Heh 8-). Ssho88 is a professional full-time AP. One of the very best on this site. He was recently on a cruise playing against a side bet, which is probably burnt out now.



Burnt out ? Really ?

Could you find lucky 8 games with pay table 3/8/25/50/200 ? There are more beatable games out of US than you can imagine :=)
teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:48:58 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Burnt out ? Really ?

Care to share the story (minus the name of the cruise line and name of the bet)?
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ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:55:54 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Quote: ssho88

Quote: UCivan

Quote: ssho88

Quote: UCivan

Want to know almost everything about card counting in Baccarat, see Eliot's web site, here Baccarat. It's public.




Not really, he only covered 65%+- of the baccarat sidebets that we have analysed.

Did U publish them? What is your site?



It's ONLY for our team. Sorry mate.

No apology needed, we also have analyzed all side bets, just have not published them.



Have yo heard of these games ?


2 EITHER PAIR
6 FLEX ACTION
8 SUPER 6
9 FINAL TOTAL 4 CARDS

11 FINAL TOTAL 6 CARDS
12 TIE WITH 4 CARDS

14 TIE WITH 6 CARDS

16 TIE ON ODD NO(5 vs 5, 7 vs 7 . . . . )


20 PLAYER FINAL TOTAL ODD NUMBER

23 ZODIAC - WE won nearly 500k in last October(The best sidebet !)

29 WAR BACCARAT

And more . . . . .There are total 43 games in our programmer's game list. . . . .
ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 7:59:26 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Care to share the story (minus the name of the cruise line and name of the bet)?



I will post it here once the game burn out. No game can last forever, it will be burnt out one day.

Not at the moment, please be patience.

Can you imagine some casinos even offer rolling chips rebate up to 1.8% !
teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 8:27:04 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

There are total 43 games in our programmer's game list. . . . .

How much have you won against UR Way Egalite?
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ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 8:34:14 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

How much have you won against UR Way Egalite?




Not much because the max bet limit is low ! We have better games to play. We also have to spend a lot to "dig" out side bets all over the world.
ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 8:58:49 AM permalink
teliot, if you found a beatable game at a casino which does not have any business relations with you, are you going to inform the casino ? What is their response normally ?
teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:11:22 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

teliot, if you found a beatable game at a casino which does not have any business relations with you, are you going to inform the casino ? What is their response normally ?

I don't have a relationship with any casino, business or otherwise, as an informant of any type. I think of myself as a gaming mathematician, writer and teacher. Any income that comes from that lifestyle is good, but I am not food driven. Recently, most of my income has come from book sales and seminars. This week I analyzed a new table game. Often I can do in a few minutes what it takes GLI a few months to complete (and do it better).
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ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:17:07 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

I don't have a relationship with any casino, business or otherwise, as an informant of any type.



But why you publish beatable games to the public especially the casinos ? You may join our team if you want :=)
teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:20:10 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

But why you publish beatable games to the public especially the casinos ? You may join our team if you want :=)

Thanks. That is very kind. Maybe if I was 25 years younger. Being an AP is an extremely tough lifestyle, requiring endless travel and long hours. I'm very content, even if not as rich, doing what I do.

The reason I publish is that this information should be available to the public. I was a professor for (can you believe it) 26 years, and was involved publishing research articles in journals for about 15 years. I've always felt that information does the greatest good for society when it is in the public domain (I'm a big fan of Wikileaks). I found an area of research that is fun for me, wide-open and held secretively by a select few. Let's put it out there. This forces those who are serious about protecting their games to educate themselves, and education is fundamentally a good thing.
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UCivan
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:25:52 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

But why you publish beatable games to the public especially the casinos ? You may join our team if you want :=)

The reality is we see more and more Panda8, Dragon Bonus, Dragon7, Lucky Lucky, Lucky Ladies, etc in casinos everywhere. You don't think table game operators read as much as you do? You really believe you out smart them; they don't know what they are doing?
teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:27:55 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

You really believe you out smart them; they don't know what they are doing?

I will vouch for ssho88, he and his team sometimes (not always) outsmart "them" (us), big time.
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ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:31:12 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Thanks. That is very kind. Maybe if I was 25 years younger. Being an AP is an extremely tough lifestyle, requiring endless travel and long hours. I'm very content, even if not as rich, doing what I do.



Most AP said that you are on the casino side simply because your seminars only for casino personnel. Any comments ?

You should know that you can't stop APs because there are just too many casino out there and yet these casinos are too stingy and greedy. Can you imagine a side bets with 83% house edge ! They deserve it.
ssho88
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:36:49 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

I will vouch for ssho88, he and his team sometimes (not always) outsmart "them" (us), big time.



We are not as good as you think, but we are able to find dumb casinos more often than others
UCivan
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June 12th, 2015 at 9:56:36 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

But why you publish beatable games to the public especially the casinos ? You may join our team if you want :=)

Eliot, this is one of the greatest complements of your works, since you said ssho88 is a top gun in the field. Congratulations and keep it up. I am a regular viewer of your web.
teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 10:10:53 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Most AP said that you are on the casino side simply because your seminars only for casino personnel. Any comments ?

Of course that's true. I work for the industry. I haven't directly helped an AP beat a casino in over a decade. Of course, if an AP reads my blog and use that information to beat a casino, well, good for them.

This year, most of my seminars and trainings for the industry have been on gaming mathematics, including basic probability theory, as well as the mathematics for slots, table games and risk analysis (confidence intervals, z-Score, n_0, etc.). The enlightened casinos are hungry to learn. I've also taught a few "advanced advantage play" seminars, where I cover the material in my book and blog. Bill Zender and I are co-presenting a one-day seminar on advanced advantage play in July.

In all my years as a college professor, most students who took my courses were there because they had to be, not because they wanted to be. They were fixated on grades instead of learning. And they never got any older (they were always 19 years old). Can you imagine how fabulous it is to teach a group of adults who are there because they want to learn what you are teaching? Then again, when I give them homework (which I do in my math trainings), many of them don't do it.
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beachbumbabs
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June 12th, 2015 at 3:40:22 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

But why you publish beatable games to the public especially the casinos ? You may join our team if you want :=)



That's a huge compliment! Should be a blurb on the next edition of your book, teliot! Cool of you, ssho88.
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teliot
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June 12th, 2015 at 4:56:18 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

That's a huge compliment!

Yeah, I agree, even though it was obviously tongue-in-cheek.
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teliot
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June 13th, 2015 at 9:19:54 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

EV/shoe=0.97 unit(True Count system)

Concur. 10 million shoes gave 0.96 units/shoe, or 1.18 units/100 for the Player bet with the best pay table. I'll run 1B, etc., and post over on APHeat.

I used the balanced system:

T, J, Q, K, A, 2 = +1
3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = 0
8 = -8
9 = +2

With a trigger TC of +6.
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UCivan
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June 13th, 2015 at 9:32:15 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Concur. 10 million shoes gave 0.96 units/shoe, or 1.18 units/100 for the Player bet with the best pay table. I'll run 1B, etc., and post over on APHeat.

Too low to be attractive.
teliot
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June 15th, 2015 at 9:57:36 AM permalink
It's actually pretty good with PT #1 - about 3x the Dragon 7 bet.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 8, 2024
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kman
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June 16th, 2015 at 2:33:37 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Thanks. That is very kind. Maybe if I was 25 years younger. Being an AP is an extremely tough lifestyle, requiring endless travel and long hours. I'm very content, even if not as rich, doing what I do.

The reason I publish is that this information should be available to the public. I was a professor for (can you believe it) 26 years, and was involved publishing research articles in journals for about 15 years. I've always felt that information does the greatest good for society when it is in the public domain (I'm a big fan of Wikileaks). I found an area of research that is fun for me, wide-open and held secretively by a select few. Let's put it out there. This forces those who are serious about protecting their games to educate themselves, and education is fundamentally a good thing.



You are such a liar. Stop drinking your own kool-aid. I've emailed you a couple times asking to see your source code. Your response was that sorry it's private research that you put time and work into. I even pointed out similar quotes on your website about how much you love freedom of information and your goal is to spread information. You removed all your free information and packaged it in a book to profit off.
ssho88
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June 16th, 2015 at 2:44:13 AM permalink
Quote: kman

You are such a liar. Stop drinking your own kool-aid. I've emailed you a couple times asking to see your source code. Your response was that sorry it's private research that you put time and work into. I even pointed out similar quotes on your website about how much you love freedom of information and your goal is to spread information. You removed all your free information and packaged it in a book to profit off.



Very well said. kman
beachbumbabs
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June 16th, 2015 at 3:06:53 AM permalink
Quote: kman

You are such a liar. Stop drinking your own kool-aid. I've emailed you a couple times asking to see your source code. Your response was that sorry it's private research that you put time and work into. I even pointed out similar quotes on your website about how much you love freedom of information and your goal is to spread information. You removed all your free information and packaged it in a book to profit off.



Personal insult. 3 days. You're entitled to your opinion of what teliot writes or does, but not to call him names.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
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