“Rabbit’s Play” Side Bet for Baccarat
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Rules:
Player can bet on either Player’s or Baker’s hands, or both. Each hand is resolved independently. The following payouts are made on the hand’s first 2 cards or the final 3 cards.
Unsuited Pair 7 to 1
Suited Pair 15 to 1
Unsuited 3 of a Kind 50 to 1
Suited 3 of a Kind 500 to 1
Could someone please show the math for this? Is this a good bet?
BANKER PAIR, HE = 12.25%.
All you have to do is wait until there are 17 more Aces (or pretty much any other card other than 8s or 9s) in the deck than other cards (that is, 17 more Aces than 2s, 17 more Aces than 3s, and so on). At this point, simulation shows the ER = about 1.005.
Please do not send me private messages concerning doing additional calculations.
Quote: ThatDonGuyAll you have to do is wait until there are 17 more Aces (or pretty much any other card other than 8s or 9s) in the deck than other cards (that is, 17 more Aces than 2s, 17 more Aces than 3s, and so on). At this point, simulation shows the ER = about 1.005.
http://apheat.net/2012/11/01/beating-the-lucky-pairs-baccarat-side-bet/
The straight Pairs bet is slightly different, of course. But the same "Target and Weights" method will work just fine here.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI know I am going to regret posting this, but it's possible for this to turn into an AP.
All you have to do is wait until there are 17 more Aces (or pretty much any other card other than 8s or 9s) in the deck than other cards (that is, 17 more Aces than 2s, 17 more Aces than 3s, and so on). At this point, simulation shows the ER = about 1.005.
Please do not send me private messages concerning doing additional calculations.
With respect to your request, I'll throw it to the public. What are the chances of such a shoe occurring?
Quote: ssho88PLAYER PAIR, HE = 9.98%.
BANKER PAIR, HE = 12.25%.
I'm getting different numbers. Bellagio Bet is the same, but doesn't pay extra for suited. 7/31 of the pairs will be suited and 7/155 of the trips will be suited.
| Player Hand | Pays | Ways | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited Trips | 500 | 685245609216 | 0.000137093 | 0.068546519 |
| Unsuited Trips | 50 | 14488050023424 | 0.002898539 | 0.144926927 |
| Suited Pair | 15 | 80884104311808 | 0.016182005 | 0.24273007 |
| Unsuited Pair | 7 | 277316929069056 | 0.055481159 | 0.388368112 |
| Loser | -1 | 4625023946489860 | 0.925301205 | -0.925301205 |
| Total | 4998398275503360 | -0.080729576 |
| Banker Hand | Pays | Ways | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited Trips | 500 | 639985280256 | 0.000128038 | 0.064019036 |
| Unsuited Trips | 50 | 13531117353984 | 0.002707091 | 0.135354534 |
| Suited Pair | 15 | 81110405956608 | 0.01622728 | 0.243409193 |
| Unsuited Pair | 7 | 278092820422656 | 0.055636387 | 0.389454708 |
| Loser | -1 | 4625023946489860 | 0.925301205 | -0.925301205 |
| Total | 4998398275503360 | -0.093063734 |
Deck composition editable spreadsheet (6.5mb) bacrabbit.xlsb (Hope it doesn't have any errors. Use at your own risk)
Quote: mipletI'm getting different numbers. Bellagio Bet is the same, but doesn't pay extra for suited. 7/31 of the pairs will be suited and 7/155 of the trips will be suited.
Player Hand Pays Ways Probability Return Suited Trips 500 685245609216 0.000137093 0.068546519 Unsuited Trips 50 14488050023424 0.002898539 0.144926927 Suited Pair 15 80884104311808 0.016182005 0.24273007 Unsuited Pair 7 277316929069056 0.055481159 0.388368112 Loser -1 4625023946489860 0.925301205 -0.925301205 Total 4998398275503360 -0.080729576
Banker Hand Pays Ways Probability Return Suited Trips 500 639985280256 0.000128038 0.064019036 Unsuited Trips 50 13531117353984 0.002707091 0.135354534 Suited Pair 15 81110405956608 0.01622728 0.243409193 Unsuited Pair 7 278092820422656 0.055636387 0.389454708 Loser -1 4625023946489860 0.925301205 -0.925301205 Total 4998398275503360 -0.093063734
Deck composition editable spreadsheet (6.5mb) bacrabbit.xlsb (Hope it doesn't have any errors. Use at your own risk)
I think my previous estimated results is not correct. I am now using a true combinatorial program . . . . . .will post here soon.
Results from my combinatorial program matched your results :-
BANKER PAIR = -9.306373%
PLAYER PAIR = -8.072958%
Thank you for pointing out my mistakes.
Quote: ssho88
I think my previous estimated results is not correct. I am now using a true combinatorial program . . . . . .will post here soon.
Results from my combinatorial program matched your results :-
BANKER PAIR = -9.306373%
PLAYER PAIR = -8.072958%
Thank you for pointing out my mistakes.
I agree with those figures. Here is my page on the Rabbit Bet.
I'd also like to disclose that I have a small financial interest in the Rabbit bet. So, you may wish to keep any advantage play thoughts to yourself.
I am told there is a $10 maximum bet on the Rabbit, which should discourage any card counters.
