steeldco
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May 7th, 2012 at 10:03:15 AM permalink
Again, thanks edgelooker for spotting that. Here's the revised set of today's picks:
New York Mets 157
Baltimore Orioles 119
Miami Marlins -104
Chicago Cubs 110
Boston Red Sox -115
St. Louis Cardinals -113
Detroit Tigers -131
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steeldco
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May 8th, 2012 at 3:39:56 AM permalink
After my 7th. straight winning day, I finally get into the black for the year. Yesterday was a net winner to the tune of +336 which left my YTD at +7.....not much but damn, it feels good. Also, the +130dog won again for +157. It is now +874 for YTD.
Today's picks are:
Texas Rangers -135
New York Yankees -115
Chicago Cubs -115
Boston Red Sox -125
Minnesota Twins 166
Arizona DiamondBacks -125
Oakland Athletics 115
San Francisco Giants 180
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steeldco
steeldco
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May 9th, 2012 at 5:44:41 AM permalink
Alright, here's one for the stats guys out there......what is the probability of my picking 8 games with various payoffs and winning the exact same amount as the day before? Anyway, yesterday was good for my 8th. straight day of winning. We had a net of +336 and the YTD is now +343. Also, the +130dogs kept right on rolling along with a pair of wins for a net of +346 and a YTD of +1,220. Today's picks are:
Colorado Rockies 115
Chicago White Sox -105
Texas Rangers -127
Minnesota Twins 124
Detroit Tigers -121


The last 13 days (time period since last tweak for formula) has averaged +118 per day. Off of my goal of averaging a net of +150 per day. I believe that I have spotted another trend that would yield a heavy favorite or two. I will incorporate it starting tomorrow in hopes of increasing my yield.
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steeldco
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May 9th, 2012 at 8:51:21 AM permalink
Just as a note, the +130dogs have yielded 32 plays so far this year. Of the 32 total picks, 17 were winners. The average win was 160. Interesting that there were just 2 more winners than losers, but because of the average win, it has yielded a nice return.
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FinsRule
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May 9th, 2012 at 11:15:16 AM permalink
This is when it's exactly +130? And you bet every time it's +130. And home/away doesn't matter?
steeldco
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May 9th, 2012 at 11:43:33 AM permalink
No. It is any pick produced using my formula that is a +130 dog OR higher.
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steeldco
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May 10th, 2012 at 3:37:12 AM permalink
Unfortunately, my winning streak is over. Although I split the games, the net loss was -6 for the day. That left my YTD at +337 and since there was no +130dog play, the YTD on that remained at +1,220.

As a positivie thinker, I believe that the Rangers would have saved my winning streak had they not been rained out............

There is only 1 pick today:
Texas Rangers 135
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steeldco
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May 10th, 2012 at 10:18:25 AM permalink
The Texas pick of today is for the 1st. game of the doubleheader ONLY.
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steeldco
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May 10th, 2012 at 10:55:47 AM permalink
Also, for future reference, in case I neglect to mention which game of a double header the pick is pointing to, it is ALWAYS the 1st. game. Since part of my formula weights the last game played, I would have to be back between games if the 2nd. game became a pick.......and that's usually too small of a window for me to get it done.

Again, it will ALWAYS be the 1st. game of the double header.
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steeldco
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May 11th, 2012 at 8:04:58 AM permalink
Yesterday's 1 pick was a loser for -100. YTD is now +237. Also, it was a +130dog so my YTD on that subset is now +,1,120.
Today's picks are:
San Diego Padres 153
New York Mets 108
Cleveland Indians 107
LA Angels of Anaheim 138
San Francisco Giants -117
Detroit Tigers -125
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avargov
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May 11th, 2012 at 11:18:55 PM permalink
Was this a -642 day bro? I have been wondering...you are betting the ML right? I probably could have looked back to see.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
EdgeLooker
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May 11th, 2012 at 11:27:55 PM permalink
O'fer six. Ouch! (But its not easy to go 0-6 either, lol. j/k better luck tomorrow)
steeldco
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May 12th, 2012 at 6:53:39 AM permalink
Yep. 0 for 6, -642. Worst day so far.
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steeldco
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May 12th, 2012 at 6:55:16 AM permalink
Thanks edge. It'll be a key day (in my mind anyway) since I haven't had more than 3 consecutive losing days and yesterday was the 3rd. I'd obviously like not to see this extended.
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steeldco
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May 12th, 2012 at 7:39:06 AM permalink
Well, yesterday sure was a kick in the nuts. Even the +130dogs took it on the chin. The net yesterday was a loss of -642 and put me back into the red on a YTD basis, which is now -405. The +130dogs lost -200 yesterday and now stand at +920 YTD. Today's picks are:
Chicago Cubs 175
New York Mets 122
LA Angels of Anaheim 155
Boston Red Sox -128
Oakland Athletics 120
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steeldco
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May 12th, 2012 at 10:29:31 AM permalink
So I've taken some time to try and ascertain why yesterday was such a disaster and I think that I did run across a trend that I was able to back test to the date of my last tweak to the formula. It's the travel day. I found that if I lay off of a game where one, or both, of the teams had the prior day off then I would have increased my winnings by nearly 100%. For example yesterday would still have been a loser, but only to the tune of -225 instead of -642. Several other days would have been positively impacted by leaving out those games. So I will continue to keep an eye on them but will not publish a pick that involves a team that had a day off. The result should be fewer picks but less losers and a higher win rate. As always............time will tell.
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steeldco
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May 13th, 2012 at 6:26:44 AM permalink
A little bit of a bounce back yesterday. Nice to see a winning day. My longest consecutive losing days streak remains at 3. Yesterday was a win of +397 which brought my YTD to -8..........LOL. The +130dogs were a winner in the amount of +55 and their YTD is now +975. I really do think that Friday's disaster is going to end up improving the quality of the picks going forward. Today's picks are:
New York Mets 129
Kansas City Royals 116
Atlanta Braves 140
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steeldco
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May 14th, 2012 at 7:34:33 AM permalink
Another good day, won 2 of 3 games for a net win of +156 which left my YTD at +148. The +130dogs had a winner for +140 and stand at +1,115 YTD.
Today, for some reason, yielded a bunch of picks. Since it is unusual to have so many, I'm left feeling uneasy......we'll see. It will be interesting The picks are:
Washington Nationals -147
Chicago Cubs 152
Tampa Bay Rays 124
Pittsburgh Pirates 175
Atlanta Braves -136
Kansas City Royals 175
Minnesota Twins 114
Detroit Tigers -119
Oakland Athletics 175
Arizona DiamondBacks 150
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steeldco
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May 15th, 2012 at 3:54:08 AM permalink
Why is that the picks that you feel most uneasy about seem to end up doing well...........damn amazing.
I had a net win of +446 yesterday and it brought my YTD to +594. I honestly don't think that I will see red on the YTD again this year.
The +130dogs were exceptional again. A +577 on the day and the YTD is now +1,692. Who said it can't be done?
Now that I'm feeling full of myself.....I'll probably go 0 for 3 today......
Today's picks are:
Chicago Cubs 175
Detroit Tigers 116
Oakland Athletics 140
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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May 16th, 2012 at 6:22:25 AM permalink
I had forgotten what all of the constant highs and lows in doing this had felt like even though I am not going to the window on this stuff. Not yet anyway......
Yesterday was a mediocre day. A loss of -84 which brought my YTD to +510. The +130dogs went 0 for 2 for a loss of -200 and its YTD is now +1,492. Damn Cubbies............

Today's picks are:
San Diego Padres 112
Cleveland Indians 107
Minnesota Twins 170
Miami Marlins 106
Cincinnati Reds 125
Arizona DiamondBacks 110
Chicago White Sox 116
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steeldco
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May 16th, 2012 at 11:55:59 AM permalink
Just as an FYI, the effective date for the first set of tweaks to the formula was 04/26/12. Since those were made it has yielded 98 picks and I have hit correctly on 54.08% of them showing a net win of 1,705 over these 20 days. Not yet at the average that I seek but not too shabby.............
I'm really looking forward to what this last change in the formula will yield (leaving out games where one of the teams was off the day before). I would expect the average to rise considerably.
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buzzpaff
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May 16th, 2012 at 1:44:37 PM permalink
So we just forget the -1195 you were down on April 26th.

Seems fair to me...ROFLMAO
steeldco
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May 16th, 2012 at 2:07:11 PM permalink
How do I say this politely? Don't be a putz.........
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buzzpaff
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May 16th, 2012 at 2:09:55 PM permalink
Does that mean the losses do not count ? Gee, you have a very nice bookie, I must say.
steeldco
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May 16th, 2012 at 2:11:08 PM permalink
Did I say that they didn't? Did I remove them from my YTD? Show a little intelligence, okay?
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buzzpaff
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May 16th, 2012 at 2:17:36 PM permalink
" the effective date for the first set of tweaks to the formula was 04/26/12. Since those were made it has yielded 98 picks and I have hit correctly on 54.08%"
steeldco
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May 16th, 2012 at 2:21:10 PM permalink
It's apparent that you have a problem with reading comprehension. What is that you're trying to say?
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buzzpaff
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May 16th, 2012 at 2:25:47 PM permalink
I am saying you should stick with your win/loss ration as to when the thread started. Or you should have started a new thread on April 27th.
This is analogous to saying I am up $2600 on BJ, except for the $3000 I lost on the last shoe . How much for your win ratio since April 26 is due to the new formula, and how much to you can not lose them all.

I admire your posting your picks. Takes balls. But lets not sensationalize the results OK If my post offends you, this will be the last one.

no need to reply.
steeldco
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May 16th, 2012 at 2:32:33 PM permalink
I have a need to reply because this is SO ridiculous. Nowhere did I say that I should be absolved of any losses. You don't get it. Again, in all honesty, sharpen up your reading comprehension skills...............my only other thought is that you thought that you were being funny? No matter............sheesh.
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steeldco
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May 17th, 2012 at 3:45:11 AM permalink
A pretty damn good day yesterday. 2 out of the last 3 days have been that.......makes you wonder when the 0-fer is coming....
Anyway, yesterday had a net win of +420 and brought my YTD to +930. The +130dogs went 1 and 0 for a net win of +170 and that YTD is now at +1,662.
Today's picks is another set of nothing but dogs. 2nd. day in a row now ( or is it 3rd?).......I'm starting to wonder why it might be doing that. I'd feel better with a couple of favorites getting picked.

I see that Minnesota is picked again and they had just won yesterday as a +170 dog. I wonder whether it might be wise to stay away from a situation like that. I'll need to see what happens. If it's a loss, as I suspect, I need to find some time to go back and see how often heavy dogs win back to back.......

Seattle Mariners 145
Minnesota Twins 210
Baltimore Orioles 116
Pittsburgh Pirates 146
Miami Marlins 142
Chicago Cubs 165
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steeldco
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May 17th, 2012 at 12:49:40 PM permalink
LOLOL.....I just saw that Minnesota did indeed win. I've got to stop over thinking things...........needless to say I will not be taking the time to look back thru back to back big dogs winning.
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AcesAndEights
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May 17th, 2012 at 2:22:11 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Seattle Mariners 145


Sorry bro...that was a BRUTAL game.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
steeldco
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May 17th, 2012 at 3:52:24 PM permalink
Yep. Thanks Aces. Need an opinion from you. Do I count the Minnesota pick in the numbers for the day or not?
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steeldco
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May 18th, 2012 at 6:07:34 AM permalink
Wow. A split of 2 and 2 but the system still has a net win of +172 ( I chose to leave the Minnesota pick in even though I was cautionary about it. After all we're tracking the system picks and not my dumbass thoughts....). That leaves my YTD at +1,102. The +130dogs were +56 yesterday with the YTD going to +1,718. There seem to be a whole slew of picks today and as just a note, there is one additional pick in the bunch that is new, so to speak. I had mentioned a week or so ago that I had run across a trend that would yield a large favorite or two and today is the first time it has yielded a pick since then (kinda amazing that it's taken so long). Anyway, it's the Toronto Blue Jays.

Today's picks are:

Chicago White Sox 125
Philadelphia Phillies -141
Toronto Blue Jays -160
Cleveland Indians -105
Atlanta Braves 122
Minnesota Twins 135
Arizona DiamondBacks -105
Colorado Rockies -138
Los Angeles Dodgers 107
Oakland Athletics 105
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avargov
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May 18th, 2012 at 8:28:24 AM permalink
Not to split hairs, because it doesn't really matter, but...didn't you have 6 picks yesterday? It appears like your picks went 3-3. Perhaps I am missing something here, which would not be uncommon.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
steeldco
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May 18th, 2012 at 9:40:29 AM permalink
avargov, you're absolutely right. I should have stated 3 and 3. Sorry. Maybe I need to be sure that I'm at least thru my first cup of coffee before I try to write or speak..........can I use old age as an excuse?
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steeldco
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May 18th, 2012 at 12:26:59 PM permalink
I'm stoked.....I'm pumped......happy as a pig in...........
I'm absolutely thrilled with the progress we're making....
From day 1 of publishing these picks we're 33 days into it with a net of +1,102 or an average net win per day of +33.39. Way off of my stated goal of +150.
From April 26th. (day of 1st. tweak) these picks have produced +2,297 over 22 days for an average net win of +104.41....getting there.
From May 1st. (after my 0 for 6 day that I do not believe will happen again if I indeed found the cause....hopefully) these picks have produced a net gain of +2,560 over 17 days. An average of, drum roll please.........150.59. Right at my stated goal. Will it continue? Don't know. We will see but I certainly like the trend.

Everybody deserves a feel good day. Today is mine. Not bragging, or gloating, or anything.........just feeling good about things....all things.
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AcesAndEights
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May 18th, 2012 at 2:02:30 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Yep. Thanks Aces. Need an opinion from you. Do I count the Minnesota pick in the numbers for the day or not?


I am not an experienced handicapper, so I'll refrain from giving you advice. I just commented because I'm a Mariners fan and was listening to the game while they had their (typical) meltdown.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
steeldco
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May 18th, 2012 at 2:29:26 PM permalink
It's okay. No worries. Also, as a life long Cubs fan, I share your pain..........although at least on a day like today I have some solace since the system picked against them and was right.
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steeldco
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May 19th, 2012 at 7:52:47 AM permalink
An exceptional day. We went 7 and 3 for a net win of +446. That brought our YTD to +1,548. The +130dogs were 1 and 0 for a net win of +135 and its YTD is now +1,853.

2 thoughts.......it looks like the total YTD of +1,548 is rapidly catching up to the +130dogs YTD of +1,853. I think that once it passes it, I will cease showing the subset of +130dogs' performance. Also, it was nice to see the lastest tweak's addition of picking the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday get off on a positive foot. I will monitor and decide later whether that change will survive.

We've won 6 out of the last 7 days and 3 days in a row.........oh, for a long streak.

Today's picks are:
New York Mets 190
San Francisco Giants -123
Pittsburgh Pirates 149
Philadelphia Phillies 105
LA Angels of Anaheim -137
Los Angeles Dodgers -141
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buzzpaff
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May 19th, 2012 at 8:17:33 AM permalink
" can I use old age as an excuse? "

Only if you are older than the 72 that I am ? I accept responsibility for being just plain stupid at times. LOL
steeldco
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May 19th, 2012 at 8:31:37 AM permalink
What if I'm not 72, but feel like 92? LOLOLOL
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steeldco
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May 19th, 2012 at 8:32:47 AM permalink
No.....wait. Just plain stupid.......too many times.....
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buzzpaff
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May 19th, 2012 at 8:36:26 AM permalink
" No.....wait. Just plain stupid.......too many times..... " thats ok, we have forgiven you !
steeldco
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May 19th, 2012 at 12:48:33 PM permalink
Boy, it sure would have been nice to see the Mets (even though as a Cubs fan, I hate them) win as +190 dogs. Unfortunately it looks like they brought the bats with the holes in them.......
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steeldco
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May 19th, 2012 at 1:35:26 PM permalink
Has anybody ever heard of the "Insiders Handicapping Invitational"? I searched it and came up with 2 guys who were claiming to be the first ever to win it......LOLOL. Anyway, I was looking for some sort of yardstick, comparisons, to see how this system may stack up against others. Any thoughts?
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steeldco
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May 20th, 2012 at 7:03:51 AM permalink
All that can be said about yesterday's results is that at least it kept the consecutive days win streak alive with a mighty net win of +12 for a YTD net win of +1,560. There was one +130dog and that was a winner for +149 which brought that YTD net win to +1,998. The trend is 4 straight winning days.

Today's picks are:
Pittsburgh Pirates 162
Philadelphia Phillies -144
Washington Nationals -155
Tampa Bay Rays -147
Arizona DiamondBacks -125
Chicago White Sox -120
Seattle Mariners 131
San Francisco Giants -148

Way too many favorites for my liking, but it is what it is. One note on these, the Washington Nationals pick is now the 2nd. that has occurred as an addition since I tweaked my formula last. The first new addition pick was a couple of days ago with Toronto, which had won.
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SOOPOO
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May 20th, 2012 at 7:48:49 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Has anybody ever heard of the "Insiders Handicapping Invitational"? I searched it and came up with 2 guys who were claiming to be the first ever to win it......LOLOL. Anyway, I was looking for some sort of yardstick, comparisons, to see how this system may stack up against others. Any thoughts?



There is no need for you to compare your system with any other. You just need to compare it to the 'vig' you have to pay. If you have figured out a system where you have '+130' picks hitting more than 10/23, then your system is a winner. If your 'pick'em' games are hitting more than 11/21, then your system is a winner.
The beauty of baseball is that you can retrospectively check your system against the entire last season. If you found something that consistently beats the odds, you'll know it.
steeldco
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 20th, 2012 at 8:07:43 AM permalink
Thanks SOOPOO, I understand what you're saying, but I'm really looking for how my system would compare to the best of the others. I need goals. I need metrics. I need to strive to be the best, but I can't if I don't know what the best is.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
May 21st, 2012 at 6:08:37 AM permalink
Okay. 2 mediocre days in a row. Yesterday was a net loss of -108 which took my YTD to a net win of +1,452. There was a +130dog and it lost for a net of -100 and its YTD is now a net win of +1,898. Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -117
New York Mets -105
Cincinnati Reds -112
Colorado Rockies 162
Toronto Blue Jays 137
Milwaukee Brewers -106
Los Angeles Dodgers 104
LA Angels of Anaheim -104
Texas Rangers -141
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
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