Team to kickoff first in Super Bowl

One prop you see every year is team to kickoff first. Here are the lines for this year at Pinnacle:

Giants: +228
Patriots: -275

I can't find data on this, but somebody told me that the Patriots always defer when they win the flip. Meanwhile, the Giants usually accept the first possession when they win the flip. I'm told there were two exceptions this year, one in a regular season game (I don't know which) and one against the SF in their last game.

I'm not sure how often each time won the flip, but let's assume the Giants won it 9.5 times out of the 19 games they played this season, and accepted the ball 7.5 times. Let's assume the Patriots always defer. Then the probability of the Patriots kicking off will be:

pr(Pats win flip) + pr(Giants win flip)*pr(Giants take the ball) = .5 + .5*(7.5/9.5) = 0.8947.

A fair line on the Patriots kicking off would thus be -850. However, one only has to lay 275. Is there something I'm not seeing?

Discuss.

it seems to be a good bet ...

i just checked the lines on an european sports book and they have them as:

Giants: 1.3 => -333.33
Patriots: 3.2 => +220

which are the lines for catching the first ball...that's why the numbers are reversed. and this site is taking more rake. still a good bet if your numbers are valid. i'll place a bet on it. thanks for the tip

ps: how often did the Giants take the ball post season ? maybe they changed their style in these games already ? just a wild guess...

Quote: gameterror

thanks for the tip

Don't consider it a tip. There must be something I'm not seeing about it.

One thing to take under advisement is the LAST game the Giants played they deferred. In that game they were 2.5-point underdogs and in this one they are 3-point underdogs. For whatever reason they deferred against SF they might defer again in the Super Bowl.

That's why I posted it, to discuss what the Giants are likely to do if they win the flip.

see my post scriptum: how did they play there most recent games if they won the coin-toss ?
also your point about the SF game is valid. they might change their strategy when declared a underdog.
and i did read your initial post wrong. i thought you were talking about there last game in regular season. (sorry english isn't my native tounge as you might have guessed already).

edit:
checked the playbook of their post season (they won coin toss twice):

vs ATL: NYG wins toss, elects to Receive
vs SF: NYG wins the coin toss and elects to defer

Quote: Wizard

Is there something I'm not seeing?

Discuss.

Great question.

It may have something to do with who chooses what for the second half.
Whoever wins the coin toss has choices, not just if they want to receive the kick.
I am not an expert but this is from wikipedia

"Start of halves
The game begins with a coin toss to determine which team will kick off to begin the game and which goal each team will defend.[12] The options are presented again to start the second half; the choices for the first half do not automatically determine the start of the second half. The referee conducts the coin toss with the captains (or sometimes coaches) of the opposing teams. The team that wins the coin toss has three options:[12]

They may choose whether to kick or receive the opening kickoff.
They may choose which goal to defend.
They may choose to defer the first choice to the other team and have first choice to start the second half.[13]

Whatever the first team chooses, the second team has the option on the other choice (for example, if the first team elects to receive at the start of the game, the second team can decide which goal to defend).


At the start of the second half, the options to kick, receive, or choose a goal to defend are presented to the captains again. The team which did not choose first to start the first half (or which deferred its privilege to choose first) now gets first choice of options"

Check to see what they do inside a dome. I have a feeling that New England prefers having the wind to their backs in the 4th quarter. In a dome, that would be moot.

The Giants might want to get after the Patriots early, defer and hope the Pats decide to receive. The Pats won't to kick first knowing the Giants would also take first possession in the second half, so I'd expect a defer Giants choice would lead to the Pats kicking off, IF you think they'd choose to defer.

A trawl of some of the pre-game talking heads might give you an insight.

Deferring makes sense, because it guarantees you the first posession in the second half. That's a good thing if you're behind by halftime. It's not a big thing, however.

Otherwise you may want the wind on your side in the 2nd and 4th quarters, when field goals can be more important, even crucial. but the Superbowl this year will be played indoors.

Quote: guido111

They may choose whether to kick or receive the opening kickoff.
They may choose which goal to defend.
They may choose to defer the first choice to the other team and have first choice to start the second half.[13]

Though it looks like there are several choices, the only two REAL choices are receive or defer. Almost never has a team decided to choose the goal to defend (because then the other team would choose to recieve, and then since that team has first choice in the 2nd half, to receive again). Same thing to choose to "kick"; you'd be giving the ball to the other team, and then they'd choose to take it in the second half. Recently (last 10 years?) a player accidentally said "kick" and not "defer", and the team indeed lost the ball there and to start the second half. So you want to receive or defer in the first half, and only receive in the second half.

As for the goal defense, if there was a hurricane force wind in one direction, you might think that it would be better to choose the goal to defend. But since they flip after each quarter, it is not a measurable advantage (at least when compared with giving the ball to your opponents twice - basically a conceded turnover). Ironically, the (quasi sudden death) Overtime is the only time you might choose to pick which goal to defend if there were indeed horrible wind conditions, since OT's would have to play 15 minutes before flipping the field, and perhaps you'd think you could score before that.

Double post, sorry, but I'd say the odds are tighter because you look at what NYG did LAST time, and considering they won, perhaps Coughlin will do it again.