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2011-12 College Bowls Over Unders
| December 15th, 2011 at 4:06:42 PM permalink | |
| Boz Member since: Sep 22, 2011 Threads: 11 Posts: 142 | Any thoughts on straight betting of unders with the inflated numbers to gain a small edge? Or do you pick and choice the games? |
| December 15th, 2011 at 4:14:25 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 310 Posts: 6735 | I've never looked into it. However, my educated guess is that the advantage by being a contrarian, betting the opposite way as the squares, would be roughly offset by the 4.76% juice. If you combine shopping around for a good number you would probably have a small advantage. If forced, about a 2% advantage, at best. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. |
| December 15th, 2011 at 4:23:50 PM permalink | |
| Boz Member since: Sep 22, 2011 Threads: 11 Posts: 142 | Thanks for the quick reply. Your advice is always appreciated and, as always factualy correct! |
| December 18th, 2011 at 2:04:16 PM permalink | |
| Boz Member since: Sep 22, 2011 Threads: 11 Posts: 142 | 2 Overs, 1 under last night. Both went over in the last 10 seconds of the game, but keeping the faith. |
| December 21st, 2011 at 4:26:57 PM permalink | |
| Boz Member since: Sep 22, 2011 Threads: 11 Posts: 142 | The Marshall game was under last night. Going to up the play with TCU under 56 tonight. Anyone else? |
| December 21st, 2011 at 10:04:45 PM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4799 |
Sounds like that was a good move... the Poinsettia Bowl was a total score of 55, so I guess you win at under 56. Elsewhere a LOW STAKES poker player bought a 50 grand ticket for Over 57 as well as a 30 grand ticket for Over 56. Does that mean the LOW STAKES player dropped 80 grand on this one game of little interest? |
| December 21st, 2011 at 11:54:24 PM permalink | |
| Boz Member since: Sep 22, 2011 Threads: 11 Posts: 142 | He did and maybe even 88K if they were win 80. |
| December 22nd, 2011 at 3:18:48 AM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4799 | Response lifted from elsewhere: "I think his only hope was possibly OT at the end. Had he shopped around he could have got 55 and at least pushed part of the bet. Still sick to bet that much on some stupid low level bowl game where one team (TCU) was probably disinterested in the game. " The team may have been disinterested, the bookies weren't. |
| December 22nd, 2011 at 4:32:46 PM permalink | |
| Boz Member since: Sep 22, 2011 Threads: 11 Posts: 142 | Going with under 68 tonight in the LV Bowl. Line has moved up 1.5 points today, so there is heavy action again on the over. Boise may score a lot of points, but I still see the value in the under so I am riding this train to the end. |
| December 22nd, 2011 at 4:51:55 PM permalink | |
| Ayecarumba Member since: Nov 17, 2009 Threads: 113 Posts: 2025 |
Good luck Boz! Unfortunately, I don't share your enthusiasm for the under tonight. |
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