Half Time betting- 1st ball possession correlation

I was wondering if anyone has done any studies to see if there are any correlations between the team with the 1st ball posession and the halftime spread. The reason why I was wondering is that I notice that for some internet sites, on a lot of televised games, you can put in a bet after the cointoss until right before the kickoff. Therefore, in that quick span, you could put in a bet to the team that recievs the ball first. Thus, I was wondering if anyone has done studies to see if it was advantageous to bet (i.e. overcome a 5% or 10% vig) on the team that recieves the ball first for halftime (especially in the NFL where the game moves faster than college)?

No and NO

I suspect there's little correlation, but there might be for second halves, as the team that gets first possession can try to dictate the pace of the match for the second half. I know some coaches like to have a last possession/first possession over the half time.

Probably worth some data mining, but I'd doubt any trend would be big enough to beat the vig. It might at best be worth tenth of a point, that might be another factor to add in....

Thank you for the feedback. The only thing with the 2nd half is that the team getting possession first is already determined from the cointoss. Thus, I'm guessing the oddsmakers probably figure that into the 2nd half spread. For the first half, though, it seems like the majority of teams winning the toss likes to kickoff first. Thus, it can't really be figured into the halftime line unless you are one of the teams under a few coaches that like to recieve first (e.g. June Jones), in which,it is pretty much a given that they will recieve first and I'm guessing the oddsmakers probably account for that too. I'll try to experiment and bet small on the team that recieves first in the NFL, but I'm pretty certain the numbers won't overcome the vig as probably many people have thought about this (although I do notice that some books will shut off betting before the cointoss and some don't).

One question that gets asked from time to time is how important is it to win the coin toss in NFL overtime. I have no statistics to quote, but others I respect say that the odds are about the same whether kicking or receiving. Thus, I don't think who kicks first in the second half makes much difference either.

However, this does not factor in the new rule about kicking the ball 5 yards further down-field.

Quote: Wizard

One question that gets asked from time to time is how important is it to win the coin toss in NFL overtime. I have no statistics to quote, but others I respect say that the odds are about the same whether kicking or receiving. Thus, I don't think who kicks first in the second half makes much difference either.

However, this does not factor in the new rule about kicking the ball 5 yards further down-field.

Last time I corrected the teacher, I got my knuckled cracked by Sister Mary Francis's ruler . But here goes :


LIVE WIN PROBABILITY GRAPHS FOR ALL GAMES
Oct 15, 2008
How Important is the Coin Flip in OT?
All of our favorite teams have been on the short end of the stick when it comes to sudden death overtime in the NFL. The opposing team wins the coin flip, gets a decent return, completes a couple passes, then kicks a game-winning 40+ yard field goal. Our team never even gets a chance to touch the ball. It's a painful end to an otherwise exciting game.

Everyone knows the coin toss can be decisive. The team that wins the toss instantly becomes favored to win the game, but just how heavily?

From the 2000 through 2007 regular seasons, there have been 124 overtime games. In every single game except one (I believe), the team that won the toss elected to receive. And those receiving teams won 60% of the time (and tied once). That's a relatively large advantage,

Quote: buzzpaff

Last time I corrected the teacher, I got my knuckled cracked by Sister Mary Francis's ruler . But here goes :


LIVE WIN PROBABILITY GRAPHS FOR ALL GAMES
Oct 15, 2008
How Important is the Coin Flip in OT?
All of our favorite teams have been on the short end of the stick when it comes to sudden death overtime in the NFL. The opposing team wins the coin flip, gets a decent return, completes a couple passes, then kicks a game-winning 40+ yard field goal. Our team never even gets a chance to touch the ball. It's a painful end to an otherwise exciting game.

Everyone knows the coin toss can be decisive. The team that wins the toss instantly becomes favored to win the game, but just how heavily?

From the 2000 through 2007 regular seasons, there have been 124 overtime games. In every single game except one (I believe), the team that won the toss elected to receive. And those receiving teams won 60% of the time (and tied once). That's a relatively large advantage,

I vaguely recall that 1 game where the coin toss winner elected to kick in OT. I believe it was a *very* windy day, and as the kicking team they got to choose the direction they play downfield.

Seems to me many years ago a player was so nervous he chose to kick off also.

A friendly wager? 10 pushups per game. Any OT game, I will take the team that gets the ball first ???