Wizard
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August 27th, 2011 at 7:22:46 PM permalink
Welcome to the second annual Wizard of Vegas Super Bowl Challenge! The rules will be the same as last year, except this year you must submit your entries by Private Message. Here are the rules again:

  1. Indicate winner and loser of 2012 Super Bowl by Private Message. For example, Packers over Steelers.
  2. In the event after the Conference Championships more than one person is in contention I will ask those of you to submit a tie-breaking margin of victory prediction.
  3. If nobody wins, anybody who got both teams, but the wrong winner, shall win the contest (this happened last time).
  4. If nobody gets both teams right, in either order, then tough, nobody wins!


Deadline is kickoff time on Sept. 8. I'll post the predictions shortly after the kickoff of the opening game.

Winner will get a mystery prize, or some cash alternative. I'll figure that out later. Don't expect a lot -- I'm cheap.

Last year the winner was Mosca, who picked the Steelers to beat the Packers. Nobody else picked those two teams, so Mosca won, despite predicting the winner incorrectly. In lieu of a prize for himself he asked that I make a donation to Gamblers Anonymous, which I did.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
JohnnyQ
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August 27th, 2011 at 7:38:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In lieu of a prize for himself he asked that I make a donation to Gamblers Anonymous, which I did.



Mosca:

Hey very classy move. If I win ( and probably not likely, I need to bring
in doughnuts to work because my cubicle farm teammate's HS team
whupped my HS team in Football last night ) I'd like an authographed
book from the Wiz, and possibly a comp lunch somewhere :)
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
DJTeddyBear
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August 27th, 2011 at 8:36:04 PM permalink
I thought the prize last year WAS an autographed copy of Gambling 102. That's a hell of a gift for G.A.!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
JohnnyQ
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August 27th, 2011 at 8:39:19 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I thought the prize last year WAS an autographed copy of Gambling 102. That's a hell of a gift for G.A.!



But don't ALL Gambling books have the standard preface or paragraph on knowing if you are in over your head ?
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
DorothyGale
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August 27th, 2011 at 9:12:24 PM permalink
The Panthers beating the Bills ... obviously ...
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
Mosca
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August 27th, 2011 at 9:21:53 PM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Mosca:

Hey very classy move. If I win ( and probably not likely, I need to bring
in doughnuts to work because my cubicle farm teammate's HS team
whupped my HS team in Football last night ) I'd like an authographed
book from the Wiz, and possibly a comp lunch somewhere :)



Thanks, Johnny! Classy move by The Wiz to agree, too; we both have some misgivings about "*/A" organizations, but I believe that the benefits outweigh our doubts. I have some friends on the long slide right now. I hope they pull out but I fear the crash will be abrupt and hard. Anyone who has that many slot wins is losing a ton.
A falling knife has no handle.
NicksGamingStuff
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August 28th, 2011 at 3:41:33 AM permalink
I think the red sox will beat the yankees.
SOOPOO
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August 28th, 2011 at 3:54:55 AM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

The Panthers beating the Bills ... obviously ...



That hurt..... The Bills just resigned their defensive tackle, Kyle Williams, who was the linchpin of the worst run defense in the league last year. They were able to lock him up for just over EIGHT MILLION a year. Such managerial ineptitude is hard to match. They gave away their best wide receiver, Lee Evans, to Baltimore for a fourth round draft pick. They lost their best linbacker to free agency. They signed a backup qb who has lost 10 of his last 11 starts.
Ayecarumba
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August 28th, 2011 at 7:03:31 AM permalink
Thanks for hosting this again Wizard! Also, thank you for generously providing the mystery prize!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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August 28th, 2011 at 8:08:01 PM permalink
Only nine entrants so far. Let's get those picks in folks.

Also, about half of you have been indicating a margin of victory or exact score. That is not necessary. I will only ask that if two or more people make it as far as the Super Bowl. In that case, I'll ask those of you still in contention for a MOV after the Conference Championships. All I need now is two teams, preferably one AFC and one NFC.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks for hosting this again Wizard!



You're welcome.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
thecesspit
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August 28th, 2011 at 9:59:32 PM permalink
Thanks to.

Slightly annoyingly, I discovered I couldn't parlay my two NFC/AFC champions picks together.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
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September 6th, 2011 at 3:33:06 PM permalink
Don't forget to get your pick in before kickoff. As a shameless thumbtack post, I must tell a joke:

A man says to his friend, "I'm going to the casino tonight. I hope I break even; I need the money."
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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September 8th, 2011 at 6:59:45 PM permalink
Here are your picks. Enjoy!


Member Winner Loser
ten2win San Diego Packers
thlf Atlanta Baltimore
avargov  Chargers Phily
Switch New Orleans Baltimore
JimMorrison  Patrios Falcons
cclub79  Patrios Eagles
 AZDuffman  Ravens Bears
FinsRule  San Diego Atlanta
odiousgambit  Atlanta San Diego
TheNightfly  Chargers Giants
miplet Jets Saints
PITdood  Chargers Giants
 Knuckleball3  Steeleres Falcons
APDave  Patrios Packers
Ayecarumba  Jets Eagles
slyther  Packers Chargers
 allenwalker  Saints Titans
 thecesspit  Packers Chargers
JohnnyQ  San Diego New Orleans
Face Jets Eagles
Asswhoopermcdaddy  Packers Indy
vernfritz  Green Bay Baltimore
SOOPOOS Patriots Packers
ck1313  Green Bay New England
Toes14  Jets Saints
Mosca  Steeleres Packers
Nareed Steeleres Eagles
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Face
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September 8th, 2011 at 7:11:41 PM permalink
¡Aye carumba! ><
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TheNightfly
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September 8th, 2011 at 9:00:48 PM permalink
It is apparent from this list that is that PITdood is an exceptionally intelligent and insightful person.
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APDave
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September 9th, 2011 at 11:24:10 AM permalink
SOOPOOS picked the same as me. I hope my super tiebreak wins it out.
thecesspit
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September 9th, 2011 at 11:36:32 AM permalink
And slyther picked the same as me.

I'd much prefer my Homer choice of Lions over Texans to win it all...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
slyther
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September 9th, 2011 at 3:59:59 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

And slyther picked the same as me.



Great minds think alike
Nareed
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September 9th, 2011 at 4:44:47 PM permalink
I went with a long shot, Steelers over the Eagles. But what would be the longest shot, the two teams least likely to get to the Super Bowl?

I nominate Lions vs Browns.

Let's face it, the Browns are cursed. I don't believe in curses, but I can make an exception for the Browns. The gods, meaning Paul Brown, have decreed no team playing in cleveland and calling themselves the Browns will ever reach a Super Bowl. Never. The way they've muffed it at the plyoffs three times is epic. Two of those games have even been named: The Fumble and The Drive.

They may put a great team together, they may get the best head coach with the finest coaching staff, but they'll never make it to a game played in february. Didn't the Ravens have to possess the town of Baltimore in order to, finally, shake off the curse?
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buzzpaff
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September 9th, 2011 at 4:52:57 PM permalink
I was against Baltimore ( Wiz's home town ) taking Cleveland's team. Even after Robert Irsay screwed the COLTS. At least Cleveland
fans did not have to first find out early one morning after the Vans had loaded up all the equipment and hit the road.
Always reminding folks here the Bronco's are not Denver's team, it's Pat Bowlen. Let revenue drop or if had not built him a new stadium, they would not need a reminder!!
thecesspit
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September 9th, 2011 at 5:19:06 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

I went with a long shot, Steelers over the Eagles. But what would be the longest shot, the two teams least likely to get to the Super Bowl?

I nominate Lions vs Browns.

Let's face it, the Browns are cursed. I don't believe in curses, but I can make an exception for the Browns. The gods, meaning Paul Brown, have decreed no team playing in cleveland and calling themselves the Browns will ever reach a Super Bowl. Never. The way they've muffed it at the plyoffs three times is epic. Two of those games have even been named: The Fumble and The Drive.

They may put a great team together, they may get the best head coach with the finest coaching staff, but they'll never make it to a game played in february. Didn't the Ravens have to possess the town of Baltimore in order to, finally, shake off the curse?



Yeah, cos what happened 20 years ago really matters to how a team will perform this year... The Fumble and The Drive relate to incidents in those games... not the games themselves.

Browns vs. Lions would be the two longest droughts from going to the big game. Last time the Lions went to the NFL championship game (pre-superbowl) was 1957, where they beat down on the Browns 59-something.

Neither team will make the bowl this year. But both are up and coming and both sets of supporters should be relatively happy.

But this years long shot would be Panthers/Bills or Panthers/Bengals.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Face
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September 9th, 2011 at 5:31:11 PM permalink
Browns may be cursed, but if ever someone could lift, their running back is it. A giant white man that can jive like Barry Sanders, truck like Jerome Bettis and is fast as the dickens. Single handedly made me a quasi-fan of the Browns. I love that guy.
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thecesspit
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September 9th, 2011 at 5:43:14 PM permalink
Yeah, Peyton Hillis is the great white hope at Running Back (and proved a point I made a few years back about skill players can be of any race...).

Him and Joshua Cribbs are worth the ticket price to watch the Browns these days.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Nareed
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September 9th, 2011 at 5:45:07 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Yeah, cos what happened 20 years ago really matters to how a team will perform this year...



It does when it keeps happening.

Ok. the Browns ceased to exist, moved to Baltimore and were re-born as the Ravens. The team now in Cleveland has nothing to do with any of that. They were founded in the 90s, as an expansion team, even if they inherited the history of the previous team.

But the curse doesn't care about details like that....


Quote:

The Fumble and The Drive relate to incidents in those games... not the games themselves.



There are lots of games wiht names. Some are named for something that took place through large parts or all fo the game, like the Ice Bowl, the Freezer Bowl or the Body Bag Game. Most, however, are named for one key play or set of plays, like The Drive, The Fumble, The Sea of Hands, The Immaculate Reception, The Catch, The Holy Roller, The Ghost to the Post (lots of Raiders games, come to think of it), The Catch II (SB LXIII), etc.
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Nareed
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September 9th, 2011 at 5:52:24 PM permalink
Quote: Face

Browns may be cursed, but if ever someone could lift, their running back is it.



Could be.

But the only cure for the curse is for Cincinnati to win the Super Bowl.

Quote:

Single handedly made me a quasi-fan of the Browns.



I'ma big fan of the Browns, or supporter, at any rate. I love that my team plays them twice a year. That's like having a head start on the rest of the conference, except for the Ravens.
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Face
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September 9th, 2011 at 6:08:32 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

I'ma big fan of the Browns, or supporter, at any rate. I love that my team plays them twice a year. That's like having a head start on the rest of the conference, except for the Ravens.



I dunno. I'd rather play a tough team and maybe lose than play a bad team with a guy that might kill someone. He eats hopes and dreams and metabolizes them into pain. Love that guy.
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thecesspit
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September 9th, 2011 at 6:18:10 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

It does when it keeps happening.

Ok. the Browns ceased to exist, moved to Baltimore and were re-born as the Ravens. The team now in Cleveland has nothing to do with any of that. They were founded in the 90s, as an expansion team, even if they inherited the history of the previous team.

But the curse doesn't care about details like that....



Yeah, yeah, whatever. And the Lions still have the curse of Bobby Layne. I prefer to think it's because the teams have been piss poorly managed for a long period of time, and even when averagely run it takes a lot to catch lightning in a bottle. Belief in a Curse in Football is like believing in the Tooth Fairy... it's a story made up so fans can feel happier with themselves.

Quote:

There are lots of games wiht names. Some are named for something that took place through large parts or all fo the game, like the Ice Bowl, the Freezer Bowl or the Body Bag Game. Most, however, are named for one key play or set of plays, like The Drive, The Fumble, The Sea of Hands, The Immaculate Reception, The Catch, The Holy Roller, The Ghost to the Post (lots of Raiders games, come to think of it), The Catch II (SB LXIII), etc.



No. The GAME was not called "The Fumble". The PLAY was. Same with your examples. The Immaculate Reception was amazing, but it was ONE part of the game. It refers to an actual incident, not the whole game. But whatever...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Face
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September 9th, 2011 at 6:27:32 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

And the Lions still have the curse of Bobby Layne.



I must ask, since I don't know any other Lions fans.... aren't you in any way pissed at them for what they did to Barry Sanders? Possibly the greatest RB of all time out of the league at 30 years old because management was stubborn... When I think of "The Lions", that's the overriding thought that always enters my mind. =(
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thecesspit
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September 9th, 2011 at 6:36:13 PM permalink
Quote: Face

I must ask, since I don't know any other Lions fans.... aren't you in any way pissed at them for what they did to Barry Sanders? Possibly the greatest RB of all time out of the league at 30 years old because management was stubborn... When I think of "The Lions", that's the overriding thought that always enters my mind. =(



Oh yes... Pissed for about 10 years. He retired early as all his love of the game had been sucked away, and the Lions management was incompetent, in handling the talent and the team. It was less the management was stubborn, but more unable to actually have any consistency what so ever in their coach, players or system. Just not stubborn enough. You have to wonder why a team with Perriman, Moore and Sanders didn't have another tilt in the playoffs, and I wish Barry had managed just one more season to really ice home the fact of his greatness. He is the reason I started watching football.

Much of that dead wood has gone the way of the dodo. I turn most of my hate to Matt Millen these days for being a cretin. How he is qualified to be a pundit on TV, I don't know... he obviously knew about 4/5ths of f-all about about college talent.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Nareed
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September 9th, 2011 at 6:39:39 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Belief in a Curse in Football is like believing in the Tooth Fairy... it's a story made up so fans can feel happier with themselves.



I said I don't believe in curse, but that for the Browns I am willing to make an exception. Night Train Layne is not responsible for the Lions' poor performance in recent decades, any more than the Paul Brown is for the Browns'. as far as I know he never even cursed the Browns.

But it's fun to play with stats and facts and make it look like, gee, there might be something to this unmade curse curse :) Besides, I kind of like Paul Brown.


Quote:

No. The GAME was not called "The Fumble". The PLAY was. Same with your examples. The Immaculate Reception was amazing, but it was ONE part of the game. It refers to an actual incident, not the whole game. But whatever...



In the NFL Networks Top Ten "Games With Names," all of these, and others like The Fog Bowl, The Sneakers Game, The Greatest Game Ever Played, were deemed to be games with names.

Now, as to The Fumble and The Drive, those were the play and series that defined those games. I know my own Law states that a game lost by one play was really lost by much more than the one play, but what sticks in the mind is Ernest Binder fumbling near the goal line, and Elway obstinately driving 98 yards to tie the game and send it to overtime.
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Face
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September 9th, 2011 at 6:42:33 PM permalink
OK, just wanted an actual fan to weight in. By stubborn I meant that I had thought that he wanted out of Detroit but wasn't allowed by management. He basically chose not to play than to subject himself to any more f*ery. I, too, was enthralled by the man, and while RB's don't have the longevity of a punter, 30 is too damn young to give up on what was an epic run to immortality. At least I take solace in the fact that he won't suffer the fate of many long time running backs, and will be fit enough to play with his grandchildren.
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thecesspit
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September 9th, 2011 at 7:58:50 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

I said I don't believe in curse, but that for the Browns I am willing to make an exception. Night Train Layne is not responsible for the Lions' poor performance in recent decades, any more than the Paul Brown is for the Browns'. as far as I know he never even cursed the Browns.



I wasn't talking about Dick "The Night Train" Lane. Who had no reason to curse the Lions. And was one of the greatest DBs to ever play. Plus awesome in "Paper Lion" (a book well worth reading as well as the film).

I was talking about Bobby Layne, QB for the 1950's Lions before he was traded to the Steelers in 1958. And he alledgedly "cursed" the Lions to have no more success for the next fifty years.

Date of the Lions last championship appearance? 1957, in the game I previously mentioned versus the Browns.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
thecesspit
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September 9th, 2011 at 8:01:19 PM permalink
Quote: Face

OK, just wanted an actual fan to weight in. By stubborn I meant that I had thought that he wanted out of Detroit but wasn't allowed by management. He basically chose not to play than to subject himself to any more f*ery. I, too, was enthralled by the man, and while RB's don't have the longevity of a punter, 30 is too damn young to give up on what was an epic run to immortality. At least I take solace in the fact that he won't suffer the fate of many long time running backs, and will be fit enough to play with his grandchildren.



I think Sanders just didn't want to learn a new system and a new team, not at Detroit or anywhere else. He was the best at the time, and I suspect could have gone anywhere, but felt that another set of changes was just too much. The team thought he was looking for a trade, but Barry just wanted to play the football he new and loved.

I believe he had to repay a whole bunch of signing money back as he'd signed for 6 years, but played for two.

I still have his jersey and still wear it, and also remember reading the US news in Japan when he announced his retirement. I was gutted.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Nareed
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September 9th, 2011 at 8:21:32 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I wasn't talking about Dick "The Night Train" Lane.



Sorry. My mistake.
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Nareed
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September 12th, 2011 at 9:17:32 AM permalink
BTW, having seen the Steelers are back in Super Bowl form, I think I should concede right now.

By Super Bowl form, I mean they played against the Ravens the same way they did against Green bay: badly and with lots of mistakes. Come on, now. Seven turnovers, 4 sacks. It's a wonder they didn't lose by 50 points or more. I quit watching the game by the third quarter.

I should say the last time I spent the whole season carping about the Steelers, they beat Arizona at the Super Bowl. So try and stop this minor superstition of mine :)
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APDave
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September 13th, 2011 at 1:02:15 PM permalink
Even with just week 1 behind us, I think my Pats over Green Bay pick is looking strong. Brady had enough time to check his stock portfolio and facebook updates on his smartphone before throwing the ball. And well, Aaron Rodgers just looked unreal. Hopefully, their defenses don't end up overly suspect.
thecesspit
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September 13th, 2011 at 2:06:01 PM permalink
Quote: APDave

Even with just week 1 behind us, I think my Pats over Green Bay pick is looking strong. Brady had enough time to check his stock portfolio and facebook updates on his smartphone before throwing the ball. And well, Aaron Rodgers just looked unreal. Hopefully, their defenses don't end up overly suspect.



I think the games vs. the Lions for the Pack will be very telling. They'll win, but how Rodgers copes with the Lions pass rush will be critical to how teams play against them in the playoffs.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ayecarumba
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September 26th, 2011 at 3:50:30 PM permalink
Did all the entries get posted somewhere? Did anyone take Buffalo?
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buzzpaff
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September 26th, 2011 at 4:02:11 PM permalink
Buffalo was not listed as this contest is only for Professional Football Teams,
ten2win
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September 26th, 2011 at 4:36:06 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Buffalo was not listed as this contest is only for Professional Football Teams.


Ha! Made me laugh. I'm still laughing.....

Brings back memories of Jim Kelly.
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ten2win
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September 26th, 2011 at 4:46:34 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Did all the entries get posted somewhere? Did anyone take Buffalo?


Yes, they did, on page 2. There were no Buffalo takers, not even SOOPOO.
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buzzpaff
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September 26th, 2011 at 5:22:04 PM permalink
Any chance Canada might take Buffalo ?
mariejamison
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January 4th, 2012 at 7:03:56 PM permalink
NFL playoffs are here. I bet this is the perfect time in doing such betting for the winners that you would want to advance and to go to the super bowl! Exciting things are yet to come for both players and betters!
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98Clubs
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January 11th, 2012 at 4:36:30 PM permalink
The scary thought...

TEEEEBOWWWW
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 11th, 2012 at 4:42:15 PM permalink
I thought I'd eliminate all the teams who are out to see where people are now (the number of people who picked the Chargers this year is interesting. And Norv Turner still has a job...).


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Nareed
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 12th, 2012 at 9:35:19 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I thought I'd eliminate all the teams who are out to see where people are now (the number of people who picked the Chargers this year is interesting. And Norv Turner still has a job...).



The way GB is playing, I'd have to say vernfritz and ck1313 are in pretty good shape. It would be fun to see Denver tear everyone up though.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 12th, 2012 at 9:42:33 AM permalink
I'd like a Packers / Texans superbowl, and hope I get the best answer to the tie breaker :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
mrjjj
mrjjj
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January 15th, 2012 at 6:06:24 AM permalink
Packers vs. Balt.

Ken
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 15th, 2012 at 9:29:57 AM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

Packers vs. Balt.

Ken



You are a bit late with that prediction, Ken. Do keep up, this was for predictions before the season began....
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
TheNightfly
TheNightfly
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January 15th, 2012 at 10:27:15 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

You are a bit late with that prediction, Ken. Do keep up, this was for predictions before the season began....

He predicts football the way he predicts roulette numbers... after the results are in.
Happiness is underrated
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