Sports betting chatter
today - 1:10 p.m.
Angels/Rays
Pitcher Ryan Pepiot under 6.5 strikeouts_______________-145
he's been under 6.5 Ks in 18 of his 21 starts in the last 3 years including this one
edit - DraftKings just worsened the line to -165 about one minute ago - it's still my pick
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https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props&subcategory=strikeouts-thrown
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Quote: lilredrooster.
today - 1:10 p.m.
Angels/Rays
Pitcher Ryan Pepiot under 6.5 strikeouts_______________-145
he's been under 6.5 Ks in 18 of his 21 starts in the last 3 years including this one
edit - DraftKings just worsened the line to -165 about one minute ago - it's still my pick
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https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props&subcategory=strikeouts-thrown
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I got lucky on this one. I would have bet with you but was still golfing when the game started. I had an eagle today so will be happy regardless of my pathetic bets….!
Rangers/Braves
pitcher Andrew Heaney under 4.5 strikeouts_____________-135
he's been under 4.5 Ks in 13 of his last 14 starts
he's facing the Braves - the best hitting team in the MLB (in batting average)
in his last 15 starts he has only pitched over 4 innings in one game - and is very often pulled well before that - current era - 6.75
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props
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. I just HAMMERED Heaney under 4.5 K’s.Quote: lilredrooster.
Rangers/Braves
pitcher Andrew Heaney under 4.5 strikeouts_____________-135
he's been under 4.5 Ks in 13 of his last 14 starts
he's facing the Braves - the best hitting team in the MLB (in batting average)
in his last 15 starts he has only pitched over 4 innings in one game - and is very often pulled well before that - current era - 6.75
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props
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I love the Kings over the Pelicans. Against the Lakers the Pelicans were trash EXCEPT for a GREAT game by Zion. Zion is out today. I thought I’d have to give 3-3.5 points on the Kings. I’m GETTING a point.
Quote: SOOPOO.I just HAMMERED Heaney under 4.5 K’s.
really niche move
that's how you make money betting sports
when the play is almost GUARNeffingTEED
yeah, right - sure it is_________snicker, snicker, snicker
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Quote: SOOPOO. I just HAMMERED Heaney under 4.5 K’s.Quote: lilredrooster.
Rangers/Braves
pitcher Andrew Heaney under 4.5 strikeouts_____________-135
he's been under 4.5 Ks in 13 of his last 14 starts
he's facing the Braves - the best hitting team in the MLB (in batting average)
in his last 15 starts he has only pitched over 4 innings in one game - and is very often pulled well before that - current era - 6.75
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props
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I love the Kings over the Pelicans. Against the Lakers the Pelicans were trash EXCEPT for a GREAT game by Zion. Zion is out today. I thought I’d have to give 3-3.5 points on the Kings. I’m GETTING a point.
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Heany has 5 Ks already…..
yeah, I know
I'm about even since I switched to picking all props
maybe some reason for hope - we'll see
haven't given up yet -
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Caris LeVert over 11.5 points +102
he's been over 11.5 in 6 of his last 7 games - his last 4 are 16,18,18, and 21 - he averages 14
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https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=player-points&subcategory=points
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Quote: lilredrooster.
yeah, I know
I'm about even since I switched to picking all props
maybe some reason for hope - we'll see
haven't given up yet -
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Caris LeVert over 11.5 points +102
he's been over 11.5 in 6 of his last 7 games - his last 4 are 16,18,18, and 21 - he averages 14
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https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=player-points&subcategory=points
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Next mortgage payment bet on Levert over 11.5. Also a little on LeVert over 9.5 laying -200. I remember him a few years back thinking he’d be a star instead of the journeyman he became…
Quote: SOOPOO
Next mortgage payment bet on Levert over 11.5.
very shrewd move
niche
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https://www.playmaryland.com/player-wins-714k-nba-parlay-live-casino-maryland/
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one more for today
Miles Mikolas to allow more than 5.5 hits______________-145
he's allowed more hits than that in 3 out of 4 starts this year and 22 out of his last 34
he's facing the Brewers who are the 3rd best hitting team in the MLB (batting average)
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props&subcategory=hits-allowed
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Quote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
Miles Mikolas to allow more than 5.5 hits______________-145
he's allowed more hits than that in 3 out of 4 starts this year and 22 out of his last 34
he's facing the Brewers who are the 3rd best hitting team in the MLB (batting average)
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props&subcategory=hits-allowed
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This old guy sucks. 35 years old
Last game 5 whiffs on 75 pitches
I think this is a good bet
Only worries if he issues walks and gets pulled early
Starting pitching ain't what it used to be
Hopefully goes at least 5 innings
props are to me much more interesting than the traditional bets
really makes your mind work to try and figure out a good bet
doesn't mean I can actually get an edge - but definitely more enjoyable to try
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one last one for today
Lane Thomas a .195 hitter for the Nationals going under 1.5 total bases________________-180
he's been under that total 15 of 19 times this year
he's facing starter Ronel Blanco of the Astros who has a 0.86 era
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=batter-props&subcategory=total-bases
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I’m close to 0 for Florida…!
Quote: SOOPOOLeVert has only played 13 minutes first 3 quarters. Has 5 points. I always need to remember the guys making the lines are smarter than me and LilRed. Or at least have access to more information.
I’m close to 0 for Florida…!
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yes, maybe the best way to play it is:
when you see a line that looks wrong like that -
either just leave it alone or play what looks to be a wrong bet
I think somehow somebody definitely knew Levert wouldn't get a lot of minutes
my bad - I'm determined to keep going - try to learn from my mistakes
edit - the Mikolas pick was a winner - that was one that didn't look like it was out of whack - Mikolas gave up 9 hits in 4 innings
from now on I'm just going to leave the lines that look wrong alone
if I win the last one my picks will have had a winning day - but not by much -
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOLeVert has only played 13 minutes first 3 quarters. Has 5 points. I always need to remember the guys making the lines are smarter than me and LilRed. Or at least have access to more information.
I’m close to 0 for Florida…!
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edit - the Mikolas pick was a winner - that was one that didn't look like it was out of whack - Mikolas gave up 9 hits in 4 innings
I'm not surprised lol
the 3rd of my picks today was a winner - Thomas had zero total bases
since I started picking props I'm 7-4 with a 6% r.o.i.
all of my picks that won paid less than even money and most paid way less
certainly not great
hoping to do better in the future
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Pablo Reyes slumping for the Red Sox batting just .167 under 1.5 total bases______________-145
he's been under that total in 14 of his 15 games this year
facing Martin Perez of the Pirates who currently has a 2.55 era_____________1:35
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=batter-props&subcategory=total-bases
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Pablo Reyes slumping for the Red Sox batting just .167 under 1.5 total bases______________-145
he's been under that total in 14 of his 15 games this year
facing Martin Perez of the Pirates who currently has a 2.55 era_____________1:35
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=batter-props&subcategory=total-bases
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Pablo Reyes is a right-handed batter and is batting 0.120 versus right-handed pitchers and 0.235 versus lefties. Martin Perez is a left-handed pitcher.
Quote: lilredrooster.
Pablo Reyes slumping for the Red Sox batting just .167 under 1.5 total bases______________-145
he's been under that total in 14 of his 15 games this year
facing Martin Perez of the Pirates who currently has a 2.55 era_____________1:35
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=batter-props&subcategory=total-bases
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Kids education fund now riding on Reyes under 1.5 total bases!
Subtle point…. Road teams always get 27 outs, 40% ish of the time Home teams only get 24.
I finally won one yesterday. The HardRock boost gave +450 on Edwards over 29.5/Twolves win.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: lilredrooster.
Pablo Reyes slumping for the Red Sox batting just .167 under 1.5 total bases______________-145
he's been under that total in 14 of his 15 games this year
facing Martin Perez of the Pirates who currently has a 2.55 era_____________1:35
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=batter-props&subcategory=total-bases
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Pablo Reyes is a right-handed batter and is batting 0.120 versus right-handed pitchers and 0.235 versus lefties. Martin Perez is a left-handed pitcher.
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I just looked at Pablo Reyes' splits on slugging percentage: his slugging percentage is 0.120 vs right-handed pitchers and 0.297 versus lefties.
Danger, Will Robinson!
gonna make tomorrow's pick - a non prop pick - early, because I think the line may get a lot worse as we approach game time
Bruins -135 over Maple leafs___________playoff game in TD Garden
Bruins crushed them on Saturday and beat them in all 4 regular season games
I just love it when SOOPOO 𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙈𝙀𝙍𝙎 my picks - gives me reason to live__________________:)
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/hockey/nhl
Quote: gordonm888
Pablo Reyes is a right-handed batter and is batting 0.120 versus right-handed pitchers and 0.235 versus lefties. Martin Perez is a left-handed pitcher.
I just looked at Pablo Reyes' splits on slugging percentage: his slugging percentage is 0.120 vs right-handed pitchers and 0.297 versus lefties.
Danger, Will Robinson!
how many left handed pitchers has Reyes faced that are as tough as Perez this season - not many I would presume
it looks like you're not planning to 𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙈𝙀𝙍 my picks - I laugh in the face of danger_____________:)
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Reyes had one hit today - a double - the pick lost -
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going to try and get some of that loss back
Darius Vines Braves pitcher tonight - under 2.5 earned runs allowed_________-120
he's played in 6 games in the majors and given up just 10 runs - only played 1 game this year and gave up just one run in four innings
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props&subcategory=earned-runs-allowed
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NBA player Jontay Porter of the Raptors was banned for life by the NBA for betting on his own team to lose and disclosing confidential info
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https://www.nba.com/news/jontay-porter-banned-from-nba
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Quote: lilredrooster.
NBA player Jontay Porter of the Raptors was banned for life by the NBA for betting on his own team to lose and disclosing confidential info
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https://www.nba.com/news/jontay-porter-banned-from-nba
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Where did you read he bet on his own team to lose? You are just making that up, right?
The main allegation (to my knowledge) is that he had an accomplice bet the ‘under’ on all his personal results from a game, and that he pulled himself out of the game.
Quote: SOOPOO
Where did you read he bet on his own team to lose? You are just making that up, right?
They were talking about that today on the radio and also said he was betting against his team.
Quote: DRichI've got a small bet on the Stars game over 5.5 tonight.
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I guess that I am either a genius or very lucky. Six goals with 19 minutes left in the second period.
I guess if I was a genius I would have made a big bet.
Quote: SOOPOOWhere did you read he bet on his own team to lose? You are just making that up, right?
<SNIP>
https://apnews.com/article/nba-jontay-porter-banned-265ad5cb703d9483347037762ee90a8fQuote: Associated Press - BY TIM REYNOLDS - 5:11 PM CDT, April 17, 2024Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter was banned for life from the NBA on Wednesday after a league probe found he disclosed confidential information to sports bettors and wagered on games, even betting on the Raptors to lose...
At 8:58am this morning I made a bet on a Ping Pong match online with Hard Rock. Match started at 9:00am. I did get lucky and win my bet at 9:19am. Great action.
Quote: DRichI MAY HAVE A GAMBLING PROBLEM!!
At 8:58am this morning I made a bet on a Ping Pong match online with Hard Rock. Match started at 9:00am. I did get lucky and win my bet at 9:19am. Great action.
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I made similar bets. They made it +EV. Free bet if you lose.
I do make small -EV bets on cricket, darts, etc…. No evidence but I think they act as a sort of cover play. I did make a soccer bet on a national team that before the bet I had never heard of the NATION.
new strategy - find 3 that look ridiculous and hope at least 2 out of three win for a probable win unless the -230 is together with the -190_______that would be a tiny loss
Jonas Valanciunas under 0.5 threes_________-230__________he hasn't hit a three in his last 11 games
Payton Pritchard over 2.5 assists_________-190__________he's been over that total in 15 of his last 16 games
Jaime Jaquez under 1.5 threes_________-166__________ I counted him going under that total in 52 of his last 65 games
if this tanks I'm probably done
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Quote: lilredroostermy last 3 picks lost - I don't think anyone is going to want to 𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙈𝙀𝙍 my picks
Keep posting, we may want to hammer the other side.
Quote: lilredroostermy last 3 picks lost - I don't think anyone is going to want to 𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙈𝙀𝙍 my picks
new strategy - find 3 that look ridiculous and hope at least 2 out of three win for a probable win unless the -230 is together with the -190_______that would be a tiny loss
Jonas Valanciunas under 0.5 threes_________-230__________he hasn't hit a three in his last 11 games
Payton Pritchard over 2.5 assists_________-190__________he's been over that total in 15 of his last 16 games
Jaime Jaquez under 1.5 threes_________-166__________ I counted him going under that total in 52 of his last 65 games
if this tanks I'm probably done
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I’ll be parlaying your picks. Go big or go home.
2 out of 3 winners on yesterday's picks but flat betting would have realized a small loss
Astros pitcher Justin Verlander under 6.5 strikeouts_________-190
he's been under that total in 23 of his last 31 games in this season and last
he's only pitched in one game this year - he started the season on the injured list with a right shoulder inflammation
he's an excellent pitcher - but he's 41 now - in his last 4 years he's averaged slightly over 5 Ks per game
when he was much younger he was averaging almost 10 per per game
finding 3 that I like is too time consuming
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Quote: SOOPOO
Where did you read he bet on his own team to lose? You are just making that up, right?
I don't make stuff up
headline of this story - "Jontay Porter bet on his own team to lose"
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2024/04/jontay-porter-lifetime-ban-gambling-fanduel-toronto-raptors
the pick on Verlander lost - I'm done - to quote B.B. King "The Thrill is Gone"
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOO
Where did you read he bet on his own team to lose? You are just making that up, right?
I don't make stuff up
headline of this story - "Jontay Porter bet on his own team to lose"
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2024/04/jontay-porter-lifetime-ban-gambling-fanduel-toronto-raptors
the pick on Verlander lost - I'm done - to quote B.B. King "The Thrill is Gone"
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My apologies. I had read many reports and all were focused on the prop bets surrounding him. Him betting against his own team I hope leads to felony charges. My son who follows the Porters due to the Mizzou connection said he was playing well enough to get a bottom level NBA contract which still is over a million a year. Now he’ll be begging his brother for $$. His brother will likely be making over $20 million a year next contract.
Quote: DRichWho follows NASCAR and how are the odds estimated? I made a small bet on Kyle Busch tomorrow to with the race at 13-1. I have no idea if that is a good number or not but it was more than I was expecting since he is starting on the pole tomorrow. I believe Dover is a small track and both Busch brothers used to run well at small tracks.
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13-1 seems like it might be slightly +EV. He’s 9-1 on HardRock. He’s the 6th choice. After starting April abysmally here in Florida, I’ve been on a heater recently to actually be up a few $$. Had James 30/Lakers ML last night to get over the hump. Accidentally bet it twice which is even better. Was +500.
I lost my initial risk free bet, then lost the bonus bet that came with that loss…. So started in a hole…. I think just the regular daily boosts/promos on Hard Rock add up to $20- $30 a day in EV.
Back to my 5 ‘regular’ books in two days…..
Quote: SOOPOO
13-1 seems like it might be slightly +EV. He’s 9-1 on HardRock. He’s the 6th choice. After starting April abysmally here in Florida, I’ve been on a heater recently to actually be up a few $$. Had James 30/Lakers ML last night to get over the hump. Accidentally bet it twice which is even better. Was +500.
It does sounds like I made a decent bet because I got the 13-1 at Hard Rock online.
SOOPOO: it would be pretty easy to get ahead if a bettor had the discipline to just limit himself to free bets or bets where he gets some kinna bonus
wouldn't it_______?
or maybe I'm missing something - do you have to bet a certain amount before the free stuff starts coming________?
or maybe the boosts only come on longshot type bets
please explain how it works - I'm very curious - thanks
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Quote: lilredrooster.
SOOPOO: it would be pretty easy to get ahead if a bettor had the discipline to just limit himself to free bets or bets where he gets some kinna bonus
wouldn't it_______?
or maybe I'm missing something - do you have to bet a certain amount before the free stuff starts coming________?
or maybe the boosts only come on longshot type bets
please explain how it works - I'm very curious - thanks
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I wish I could give a short, easy answer!
When you first sign up you tend to get a really good offer. Maybe ‘free bets’. Maybe ‘risk free bet’. Maybe ‘deposit match’
My best was the initial sign up at Caesars. Deposited $3k. Got a ‘match’ to immediately make that $3k into $6k. Plus they gave me an extra $300 for why I don’t remember. So minutes after I deposited $3k my account had a value of $6.3k. To be able to withdraw any I’d need to bet the $6.3k once. So I made around 63 $100 ‘even chance’ bets (at-110 mostly). Whatever the result was I’d be able to withdraw the entire amount. I did particularly well (just luck) and had around $7k quickly.
DraftKings had a ‘risk free’ $5k bet upon sign up. I was just starting, and nervous, so didn’t make the ‘best’ decision as far as EV, but bet the $5k on a hockey game. It won, so I won around $4700, but hedged on other sites so lost $2100 on those, so ended up maybe $2600, if I recall right.
I’ve been able to make smaller additional deposits which have given me free money recently as well.
All 5 sites have different promotions going every day. Different profit boosts every day. They certainly may vary depending on your ‘status’ with the company. I’ve thought I’d be cut off a long time ago. I certainly have fewer ‘boosts’ or dollar limits on them from when I started. Exactly how and why I can’t figure out.
I tend to use ‘cover play’, possibly for no real reason, but I have heard of others being kicked off for only using bonus bets/boosts. If I get a clearly +EV bet on site A, I may make a bet to guarantee a win on Site B. Remember, the bet on Site B is a ‘regular’ -EV bet, so site B just thinks I’m a regular ploppy bettor.
the books must be crushing by a ton a lot of bettors if they're giving away that much - bettors who unlike you and others on the site have no discipline
or else the fierce competition is forcing them to give up a lot of their profit margin
I think a little of both but more of the former
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I remember some of your previous cautionQuote: lilredrooster.
the books must be crushing by a ton a lot of bettors if they're giving away that much - bettors who unlike you and others on the site have no discipline
or else the fierce competition is forcing them to give up a lot of their profit margin
I think a little of both but more of the former
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One thing to remember is you don't have to risk so much money if you want to sign up. Soopoo risked 5k and stuff like that, but he probably could have made the same deal proportionally for $500 or $100. You should keep that in mind if you have so much trepidation
The DK offer to make a $5 bet and get $200 in bonus bets is extraordinarily 'almost can't lose' and if you did it's only $5 you lost. I think that is out there all the time
Quote: odiousgambit\
One thing to remember is you don't have to risk so much money if you want to sign up. Soopoo risked 5k and stuff like that, but he probably could have made the same deal proportionally for $500 or $100. You should keep that in mind if you have so much trepidation
In some case you don't have to risk any money. In Florida the only legal online sportsbook is Hard Rock. Just for signing up they game me $25 or $30 of free bets. I have not made a single deposit yet and have many hundreds of dollars in my account now. Mainly just making $10 and $20 bets using their bonuses offered.
