Are Sports truly rigged?

Now anyone with half a brain has noticed some bizarre calls in sports if you have been watching as long as I have and Im not just talking about the NBA, but lets stick with the NBA for just one second. This is the precise reason I dont bet sports anymore. When I used to bet it was low stakes recreationally, but also at one point crunched all the numbers and made educated decisions for each game that I wanted to bet to make sure it had some long run success. I believe I broke even or lost a small amount when I actually studied the numbers, but I didnt take notes of my profits and losses as it was mostly low stake recreational stuff that I did many years ago before I played blackjack. Im sure I did lose money though, but not much, when I didnt analyze any of the data.

Nonetheless, lets get into it. Once you start having money on the line, you really start noticing EVERYTHING and I mean everything. The inconsistencies in the calls from the start of the game to the end of the game. The clearest calls that are missed that even a 10 yr old can spot. Ive seen the most ridiculous calls in a playoff series where the refs blew the simplest calls at the end of the game that cost a team the series. I believe it was the Clippers several years ago around 2013 i forget against who, maybe it was the upcoming Warriors when they just started getting good. I believe it involved Matt Barnes but cannot recall the play exactly. I just remember it was one of the biggest blown calls that Ive ever seem and really got me questioning the integrity of the game once and for all. It got the whole country and coach to speak out on what happened. I dont believe they had 'replay' to review the call as they do now back then, but calls like these still happen today.

You then also got scenarios such as when a team thats losing by 20 with a spread of +8 suddenly gets all the calls just to get it close, but at the start of the game these SAME calls were nonexistent and vice versa. Or you have a team that's a favorite that's losing by 10 in the 4th quarter suddenly get every single call every time they drive into the paint. You see the softest touch fouls that are not fouls even with todays soft rule book, but then realize it goes hand in hand with the team that needs to come back and meet the spread. What a coincidence.

Ive also seen the most bizarre injuries where someone never even got hurt, suddenly go down and now the other team comes back in the playoff series. One recent example I remember was in 2015, the bulls were up 2-1 vs the cavs in the conference semis and Pau Gasol, one of their main players MYSTERIOUSLY goes down for 2 games with a hamstring injury and now the cavs take a 3-2 lead and eventually win the series. I dont remember at any point in the game where he got hurt. If somehow the players are IN on it as well, that simply would destroy my whole enjoyment of sports. I rather only the refs be rigging it and the players not be in on it, but who really knows anymore? What safeguards exactly are there in place if the main player on a team wants to throw a game for his friend betting huge stakes on the game? How would anyone know? Not to mention the refs in game 4 with a CLEAR as day technical foul that should have been called on their coach David Blatt after trying to call timeout with NO timeouts. This was right before Lebron hit the game winner to make it 2-2. Had he called the technical foul on the coach, lebrons shot ties the game. Not to mention a questionable push off on jimmy butler before lebron hit that game winner. What about as recent as last year where Chris Paul mysteriously ALSO goes down with a hamstring injury when the Rockets were up 3-2 vs the Warriors. Dont remember at any point Chris Paul getting hurt in the game. I mean seriously?

It just boggles my mind to the point that it simply has to be rigged. This is also happening in every other sport, whether it be college basketball, college football, the NFL, etc, the most bizarre things happen and then you look up the spread for that game and you understand why it happened. I dont even have a horse in this race anymore, but I still notice it. These refs are as corrupt as these casinos and maybe they work together, who really knows. Let's not forget the whole Tim Donaghy scandal and him then coming out and saying refs today are STILL doing it. 'Doing' it as in point shaving and rigging the games like he did. Let's also not forget the NBA actually coming out and ENDORSING sports betting LOL. They're not even shy about it anymore.

Yes the counter arguments are well these players make hundreds of millions with their contracts and endorsement deals so they wouldnt risk it, but thats the players and who would really find out anyway if they threw a game for their friend? But what about the refs? Theyre not exactly getting paid huge sums of money. If it can happen, it could and will happen as you've seen with casinos gettint caught red handed with rigging their games as well corrupt ref Tim Donaghy in 2002 in the Lakers v Kings series where Lakers got about 40 free throws in the 4th quarter of one pivotal game. Whole thing makes me sick.

<insert Michael Jackson popcorn gif>

i believe there is math being done, as in they probably can rank players and mix teams up so they create teams that are relatively better and worst but its not by much. All of the owners are probably friends and no matter what, they all have one goal and thats to get you to pay for cable, tickets, and merch.

players choosing to recieve a penalty? yeah maybe they can be paid off but do it in front of millions of people and make it not look suspicious

i truly belive you about sands and harrahs. and i dont watch sports. so i am going to believe what you are saying as of this point because if someone is going to go out of their way to discredit you about the sands or harrahs ill go out of my way to show them they are wrong. ive pushed the shoes to their limits.

Your overall point that, if sports are rigged, it would be done by refs or unpaid players (NCAA) makes sense.

Tennis matches have been rigged. Horse races have been rigged.

So it does happen. But just because it does happen, doesn't mean it's always happening.

Well, at least we know now that that ZK isn't Duffel Bag Boy.

1. You think the refs are fixing the games.
2. Several of your examples of unlikely events affecting the outcome are "mysterious hamstring pulls" disabling key players.

How do referees cause "mysterious hamstring pulls?"

Quote: gordonm888

1. You think the refs are fixing the games.
2. Several of your examples of unlikely events affecting the outcome are "mysterious hamstring pulls" disabling key players.

How do referees cause "mysterious hamstring pulls?"

If you actually read my post, you would see that I provided both of those possibilities as to the games being rigged. Refs fixing games and players purposely missing games by helping one of their friends win a bet etc. Wouldnt be surprised either if these players were bought out by someone behind the scenes. As crazy as that sounds, ive seen time and time again players mysteriously missing games in comparison to the win totals at the time or an underdog winning in a playoff series etc. I forget the saying, but if you have ruked every possibility out, then the unlikely event however rare of happening is the truth.

Id be interested in learning the unwritten rules. Seems if one call is blatantly wrong, there might be a make up where the other team is called for a penalty in a critical situation or the wronged team gets a slide. Yet sometimes it doesn't happen, so doesn't seem to be much of a rule. Nobody ever came out, proving institutional rigging, probably not true.

I kid you not, before the game started tonight, I looked at the Warriors vs Jazz with the Warriors at -2 in a tough place to play in UTah where they usually struggle to win. You want to know what I said and I swear on my grave. I said Warriors will win by 1 just enough to not cover the spread but maintain their winning ways. What do you know, the Warriors win by 1. Not to mention, everything happened that I talked about in this thread as well. The Warriors down by 10 in the 4th quarter and they miraculously come back LOL. The NBA is an absolute joke. How can the spread more often than not always be so close at the end of every single game? If the refs arent manipulating it for their own good and betting on their own games, then it has to be an inside job by the league as a whole to keep the spread as close as possible for TV RATINGS. It's as simple as that. Just look at the league endorsing sports betting. It's an absolute joke. This is again why Ill never bet sports again.

Someone go ahead and tell me the last time a 10+ pt underdog just blew a team out? If it happens, it happens once in a blue moon. This is completely unnatural. In a natural game, especially throughout an 82 game season, all this bs of the score always being so close to the spread at the end of a game would never happen.

I'm confused.
Experts look at two teams, their schedules, injuries and a million other things and determine the Warriors are two point favorites. The game ends and the experts were off by one point. To me, that shows why they are the experts and why it is hard for me to make money betting sports. To you, it isn't about how competitive the two teams are, it's about how the refs are going to slowly and quietly manipulate the actions of twenty plus unwilling participants into a result they concoct.

Selling picks seems to be the new game in town. If you buy a pick you are then in the know about everything including fixing of results.

Quote: billryan

I'm confused.
Experts look at two teams, their schedules, injuries and a million other things and determine the Warriors are two point favorites. The game ends and the experts were off by one point. To me, that shows why they are the experts and why it is hard for me to make money betting sports. To you, it isn't about how competitive the two teams are, it's about how the refs are going to slowly and quietly manipulate the actions of twenty plus unwilling participants into a result they concoct.

No amount of data can replace what happens naturally on the floor every single game. There's way too many moving parts for the score to correlate close to the spread every single 4th quarter of every game. That's completely unnatural and if you watch these NBA games, you see how much they 'control' the game as much as they can to keep it next to the spread for TV RATINGS. The only way the score is not close to the spread in the 4th quarter is if a team shoots lights out. Can't manipulate a game if you just chuck up shots. The more a team drives into the pain and around screens, the closer the score will be to the spread every game. Adam Silver and the whole league needs to be investigated to the nth degree. It all started with corrupt David Stern and now the NBA even comes out and says they endorse sports betting. So put two and two together. Would it be or would it not be in the NBA's best interest to have the score in the 4th quarter close to the spread for TV viewership/ratings if the commissioner directly tells you the league endorses betting?

When the Lakers play the Knicks on Christmas, or if the Celtics play the Warriors in June, what percentage of the audience do you think has money on the game?
Why would a league where a single team sold for two billion dollars corrupt itself for what exactly?

Quote: ZenKinG

No amount of data can replace what happens naturally on the floor every single game. There's way too many moving parts for the score to correlate close to the spread every single 4th quarter of every game. That's completely unnatural and if you watch these NBA games, you see how much they 'control' the game as much as they can to keep it next to the spread for TV RATINGS. The only way the score is not close to the spread in the 4th quarter is if a team shoots lights out. Can't manipulate a game if you just chuck up shots. The more a team drives into the pain and around screens, the closer the score will be to the spread every game. Adam Silver and the whole league needs to be investigated to the nth degree. It all started with corrupt David Stern and now the NBA even comes out and says they endorse sports betting. So put two and two together. Would it be or would it not be in the NBA's best interest to have the score in the 4th quarter close to the spread for TV viewership/ratings if the commissioner directly tells you the league endorses betting?

And there will be tons and tons of high profile NBA nationally televised games where the final score is nowhere near the spread, and nobody will say a word.

I think there are obvious biases on some games.


If you think the fix is in, figure that out and you have a gold mine. Its way better for an AP if they are fixing games vs not fixing games.

Thinking that the leagues are operating in concert with the books is a symptom of your paranoia.

I've explained several times why this is practically impossible if you think it through. But you have to have the ability to think clearly about the real world.

I believe smaller leagues and college games can be fixed, but not as some grand conspiracy to make YOU loose. A college PG with no future in the pros could build a little nest egg shaving points here and there.

It's still a bit harder to get away with than it seems if you think it through.

More importantly, it will have a negligible impact on your EV. Could help or hurt you just as easily. A rigged cointoss where neither side knows.

It's likely more common overseas as the punishments seem to be light or non existent, as in the tennis scandal. Here it's treated much more seriously.

Quote: AxelWolf

I think there are obvious biases on some games.


If you think the fix is in, figure that out and you have a gold mine. Its way better for an AP if they are fixing games vs not fixing games.

Exactly.

It does suck when it's garbage time and you have the favorite that's barely covering, especially in college football when it's like -28.5 and the team is up by 30. Even then, that's just part of the game. I believe to be true that all teams play to win, and point spreads and totals are not a factor in any game.

Quote: ZenKinG

...

Most of this can be summed up as, "Every now and then, crazy s*** happens" and that brain thing when you only remember the good or bad events, particularly those that agree with your pre-conception. Sometimes a huge favorite loses. Sometimes big leads are blown. Sometimes refs make the wrong calls. Oftentimes, you're not even going to realize those things are happening, because they're happening in your favor.

Another thing I've heard is that certain college coaches are aware of the spread and will go a little out of their way to beat it, knowing that many boosters and alumni have bet on the team. But if that's true, and you can figure it out, and the market hasn't figured it out and adjusted, that's a nice edge.

I used to bet on boxing a lot. In boxing, it is often the case that fighter A is a big money maker or a potential money maker, while fighter b is not. Most of the time, the judges would favor fighter A if it was at all close, and sometimes if it wasn't. So I bet accordingly.

I still got burned occasionally. When Manny P was at the height of his powers and each of his fights brought an ocean of Asian money into Las Vegas, I thought that Nevada judges would bend over backwards to hand him a victory over the relatively unknown Tim Bradly. In the eyes of almost all viewers, Pac man won the fight, but the judges gave it to Bradley and I lost one of my biggest bets. I still remember how shocked I was when the official results came.

But enormous criminal conspiracies spanning dozens of independent businesses and thousands of employees, almost none of whom have any real incentive to be involved... that's a delusion.

Quote: AxelWolf

If you think the fix is in, figure that out and you have a gold mine.

one of the best deals you will ever get in horse racing is betting against the not so wise wiseguys who think the fix is in
some trainers are winning around 30% - an outlandish % - everybody who knows knows he's juicing the horses with illegal drugs - and he most probably is

so this trainer claims a nobody horse who in the last 3 races has finished, 9, 10 and 12 lengths behind the winner in his last 3 races
and these not so wise wiseguys bet this horse way down believing the trainer is going to juice the horse and he's going to win

but this trainer is not a miracle worker
this horse is not going to win (or very, very seldom)

nice edge betting against "the fix".


I once saw them bet way down a horse with a juicing trainer who had finished 30, then 28 lengths behind the winner in his 2 races before last. and in his last race he did not finish- he was pulled up



an example of stupid people who think they're really smart

Quote: ZenKinG

There's way too many moving parts for the score to correlate close to the spread every single 4th quarter of every game.

If there's that many moving parts I would think it would be even harder to fix a game within a couple of points.

Quote:

Would it be or would it not be in the NBA's best interest to have the score in the 4th quarter close to the spread for TV viewership/ratings if the commissioner directly tells you the league endorses betting?

Why would a close game in the 4th quarter effect ratings?

People who want to watch the game have already been doing so since the 1st quarter.

People who have bet on the game don't even need to be watching to win or lose, so ratings are irrelevant for them.

Who has the ability to reliably and decisively throw a game?

ML Baseball:
Pitcher,
Plate Umpire
Really, no one else, think about it. Yes, a fielder might intentionally make an error, but no gambler is going to rely on the circumstances being such that a given fielder will happen to be in a position to throw a game by faking an error.

NFL:
1. Any starting QB.
2. Almost any offensive lineman - but it would damage their career.
3. Star players by faking injury - can change the odds, but usually not decisive.
4. Single Referees -not so much, they can be over-ruled by other referees. And their is so much video tape evidence of bad calls. that this seems impractical.

NBA (or college basketball)
Any above average starter.
Almost any referee. (See John Calipari's complaints about one particular referee having a vendetta against Kentucky and officiating in games where they lose due to questionable calls.)

Tennis
Any player.

Hockey
Any goalie.
(Perhaps) a defenseman or referee

Boxing,/Martial Arts
Any fighter.
*****************************************
Based on above, the games most susceptible to fixing are Boxing/Martial Arts, Tennis and Basketball.

Every play in the NFL is so scrutinized and reviewed that I think it has the lowest risk of game fixing. Plus, it is such a team sport with so many substitutions during game play, that I doubt that any player other than a QB could be relied on to fix a game.

I would think the easiest way to "fix" a game would be with prop bets.

"Okay, bet $1000 that in the 4th quarter, I'm going to spin around in a circle and tap my head three times, and then I'll do it right before the snap."

Okay, obviously nothing that stupid, but maybe more like throwing a certain number of curve balls in an inning, or a specific player getting a specific number of slam dunks in a game. Something that one or two players could easily control.

Quote: ZenKinG

It all started with corrupt David Stern and now the NBA even comes out and says they endorse sports betting.

You mean the David Stern that loved sports betting so much that he, er, invoked his right to ask the Nevada State Gaming Commission to impose a ban on accepting bets on the NBA All-Star Game (and the three-point and slam-dunk contests, as well, although I don't think any books took bets on those) when it was played in Las Vegas?

Quote: Rigondeaux

Another thing I've heard is that certain college coaches are aware of the spread and will go a little out of their way to beat it, knowing that many boosters and alumni have bet on the team. But if that's true, and you can figure it out, and the market hasn't figured it out and adjusted, that's a nice edge.

I still got burned occasionally. When Manny P was at the height of his powers and each of his fights brought an ocean of Asian money into Las Vegas, I thought that Nevada judges would bend over backwards to hand him a victory over the relatively unknown Tim Bradly. In the eyes of almost all viewers, Pac man won the fight, but the judges gave it to Bradley and I lost one of my biggest bets. I still remember how shocked I was when the official results came.

I wouldn't be surprised if the coaches that care about the spread try to beat it because they're afraid that if they don't cover, then it will send up a red flag that somebody on the team might be shaving points. Arizona State will not soon be forgotten.

And as for the first Pacquiao-Bradley fight, soon after that, one of the judges that voted for Bradley also scored a Mayweather fight that everybody thought he had won easily a 114-114 draw.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Y

And as for the first Pacquiao-Bradley fight, soon after that, one of the judges that voted for Bradley also scored a Mayweather fight that everybody thought he had won easily a 114-114 draw.

CJ Ross. An infamous name in the boxing world.

It's a bit hard to say what her story was. I tend to think she was just grossly incompetent.

I used to keep notes on the different judges. There was one guy, named Warner perhaps, who was totally in the bag for Golden Boy fighters. Going through his archives was hilarious.

Fun fact about boxing: the promoters pay the wages of the judges, which can get into the 5 figure range iirc. They also play a role in selecting the judges. As a judge, you might get to judge a fight in Tokyo, Paris or London. All expenses paid, with a per diem. Makes sense to keep your boss happy.

As you work in the boxing business, makes sense to side with the fighter who is most +EV for the game as a whole.

But a lot of them are also just very bad at their jobs. And, in fairess, it is a very difficult job to begin with.

Sports are so clearly and unquestionably rigged, that it often gets missed. One example would be the way the sports leagues determine draft order. It is rigged in a way to give bad teams a chance to improve. The rules for the Golden Knights expansion draft was much more favorable than other expansion drafts mostly because Foley paid $500 million. That feels rigged to me. Officiating mistakes is another example. For years the leagues had replay technology, but wouldn't use it, or only use it partially. That's an example of keeping the game rigged in an effort to make the pace more appealing to customers.

The nefarious examples tend to only be based on rumors, but there are some that I believe. When UFC was doing their own drug testing, it would have been very easy for them to be much more lenient in "randomly" testing some fighters than others. Just watching some weigh-ins, it was hard to believe they were really anywhere close to USADA or WADA level drug testing those years. The Mayweather-McGregor fight was stopped way too soon and one judge scored a 10-8 round with no knock down. And then there is the Kings - Lakers playoff game in 2002, which was probably just the most blatant example among at least a few.

But in those examples above, none were tied to gambling. It was a matter of being able to better sell their product. The UFC needed stars. Boxing couldn't survive with a different result. The NBA wanted to sell more playoff games in June. Anytime a sports game is rigged it is almost always about the money. And in the US, the money in sports gambling is such a small fraction of the money in sports. TV, ticket sales, shoe companies, et cetera. Anytime a sports game is rigged in the US, it is likely from something other than gambling. Other countries (thinking Asia specifically), gambling may be where most of the money is. In that case gambling is the likely reason for sports to be rigged.

Some times, what may look like a fixed game because of gambling is because people just have no idea what they're really seeing an make up their own details to fit whatever they want (this may or may not apply to ZenKinG). A few years ago, Hawaii opened as a 23 point favorite against UNLV. So much money kept coming in on UNLV that the line dropped 6-7 points. Money line went from +1600 to +700. Then the underdog won by 20 and someone sent an anonymous tip to the police that Hawaii was "shaving points," and things were crazy for a little while thinking the team was throwing the game. The more credible story that has been corroborated is that Hawaii players went out partying way too hard in Las Vegas, and some people with a lot of money learned about it and bet enough to move the line that much.

For sports betting, information is always going to be for more efficient and profitable than rigging the games. It would be must easier and better for earning money to have a direct line with the bullpen catcher to know how a pitchers arm is doing rather than trying to convince a pitcher to groove a fastball to lose a game. It would be much easier to have access to a graduate assistant to know about the team than to payoff the longsnapper or quarterback to make bad plays.

The sports betting industry profits only when the customer believes the game is fair. The industry would be hurt by any fixing. It does happen, though. The ASU basketball article from Sports Illustrated in the 90s (check their vault) is probably the most insightful piece there is

For those of us who do bet on sports, we are just as likely to benefit from these rigged events as lose because of them. A sports bettor talking or complaining about rigged games is the equivalent of a blackjack player complaining that another player took the dealers bust card.

Quote: gordonm888

Who has the ability to reliably and decisively throw a game?

But it doesn't need to be reliable, nor decisive. Against a point spread a teach should have a close to 50% chance of covering without anything being rigged. Changing those odds to 60-70% would still be huge and most players who get any playing time in most team sports could influence the game that much by playing lazy.

Quote: gordonm888

<<<NFL:
1. Any starting QB.
2. Almost any offensive lineman - but it would damage their career.
3. Star players by faking injury - can change the odds, but usually not decisive.
4. Single Referees -not so much, they can be over-ruled by other referees. And their is so much video tape evidence of bad calls. that this seems impractical.>>>>

Plus, it is such a team sport with so many substitutions during game play, that I doubt that any player other than a QB could be relied on to fix a game.

#5...the kicker

Quote: petroglyph

#5...the kicker

Boy, no kidding about the kicker. Last week was a disASTer for a couple teams.

Quote: TomG

Sports are so clearly and unquestionably rigged, that it often gets missed. One example would be the way the sports leagues determine draft order. It is rigged in a way to give bad teams a chance to improve. The rules for the Golden Knights expansion draft was much more favorable than other expansion drafts mostly because Foley paid $500 million. That feels rigged to me. Officiating mistakes is another example. For years the leagues had replay technology, but wouldn't use it, or only use it partially. That's an example of keeping the game rigged in an effort to make the pace more appealing to customers.

The nefarious examples tend to only be based on rumors, but there are some that I believe. When UFC was doing their own drug testing, it would have been very easy for them to be much more lenient in "randomly" testing some fighters than others. Just watching some weigh-ins, it was hard to believe they were really anywhere close to USADA or WADA level drug testing those years. The Mayweather-McGregor fight was stopped way too soon and one judge scored a 10-8 round with no knock down. And then there is the Kings - Lakers playoff game in 2002, which was probably just the most blatant example among at least a few.

But in those examples above, none were tied to gambling. It was a matter of being able to better sell their product. The UFC needed stars. Boxing couldn't survive with a different result. The NBA wanted to sell more playoff games in June. Anytime a sports game is rigged it is almost always about the money. And in the US, the money in sports gambling is such a small fraction of the money in sports. TV, ticket sales, shoe companies, et cetera. Anytime a sports game is rigged in the US, it is likely from something other than gambling. Other countries (thinking Asia specifically), gambling may be where most of the money is. In that case gambling is the likely reason for sports to be rigged.

Some times, what may look like a fixed game because of gambling is because people just have no idea what they're really seeing an make up their own details to fit whatever they want (this may or may not apply to ZenKinG). A few years ago, Hawaii opened as a 23 point favorite against UNLV. So much money kept coming in on UNLV that the line dropped 6-7 points. Money line went from +1600 to +700. Then the underdog won by 20 and someone sent an anonymous tip to the police that Hawaii was "shaving points," and things were crazy for a little while thinking the team was throwing the game. The more credible story that has been corroborated is that Hawaii players went out partying way too hard in Las Vegas, and some people with a lot of money learned about it and bet enough to move the line that much.

For sports betting, information is always going to be for more efficient and profitable than rigging the games. It would be must easier and better for earning money to have a direct line with the bullpen catcher to know how a pitchers arm is doing rather than trying to convince a pitcher to groove a fastball to lose a game. It would be much easier to have access to a graduate assistant to know about the team than to payoff the longsnapper or quarterback to make bad plays.

The sports betting industry profits only when the customer believes the game is fair. The industry would be hurt by any fixing. It does happen, though. The ASU basketball article from Sports Illustrated in the 90s (check their vault) is probably the most insightful piece there is

For those of us who do bet on sports, we are just as likely to benefit from these rigged events as lose because of them. A sports bettor talking or complaining about rigged games is the equivalent of a blackjack player complaining that another player took the dealers bust card.

Even the examples you gave are speculative. I really don't think the Connor Floyd match was stopped early, and if so, it wasn't to protect Floyd. Floyd was just toying with him and trying to make for a good show. Connor was gassed and had had enough.

Maybe the refs really just screwed up in the lakers/kings. Perhaps this single example from 20 years ago stands out so much because it was just a plain ole aberation. But maybe not.

Conspiracy minded people tend to not really grasp how different the first person perspective is from the outside, TV/Video game perspective. And how different making a decision on the spot with little information is from looking at the big picture over time. And how chaotic real life is, compared to the tight little narratives you come up with in your mind.

A ref is watching 20 things happen at once, with incredible speed, while standing there on the floor. The idea that he is perfectly calculating what call to make with regard to the point spread is a little silly.

Sitting there watching a fight at ringside with a limited perspective, no announcers and knowing when a punch landed or not is very, very hard.

Sometimes you drive through a stop sign without seeing it, or fill out a form incorrectly or whatever and for everytime you realize you've made a mistake, there are many others that you never know about. That's just how it is.

Imagine someone claiming your every move was part of some grand scheme to screw them over, and that this was all you thought about 24/7 with perfect focus and flawless execution. Not only that, it was part of a perfectly coordinated effort with everybody else in your life, who was doing the same thing.

Quote: Rigondeaux

.....Sitting there watching a fight at ringside with a limited perspective, no announcers and knowing when a punch landed or not is very, very hard....

That reminded me of the time....

An old friend got into words with a guy in a bar, and they decided to "take it out back" of the bar.

They started slugging each other, and it was pretty obvious the other guy had had some training. He was landing punch after punch and started throwing combinations at my friend.

The friend says to the guy, hey wait a second, so the guy stops swinging.

My buddy says to him, I'm not sure what's going on here, but if you want to keep fighting with me, you are going to have to slow down a little bit.

The other guy started laughing so hard, he said he was done. : )

Quote: Rigondeaux

Even the examples you gave are speculative

For a few of the examples I was very clear that their were rumors and that I believed them. For other examples, they are simply how the sports leagues operate. Do you really disagree that draft position is rigged to give a benefit to the weaker teams at the expense of the stronger teams?

Quote: Rigondeaux

Conspiracy minded people tend to not really grasp how different the first person perspective is from the outside, TV/Video game perspective.

You missed the entire point that a game can be rigged (and would be easier to rig) without any conspiracy at all.

Mayweather was playing games with McGregor, but not doing much damage. It is rare for a fight to stop under those conditions. Usually it is the opposite problem, where the ref lets the fight go on longer than it should. Because it can be so hard to score a round in boxing, giving a 10-8 round to someone without a knockdown makes it look even more suspicious. The ref and the judge could very easily have been favoring Mayweather independently, without any conspiracy at all. Their bias may have changed the probability of a Mayweather win from 98% to 99%. May not seem like much, but it cuts McGregor's chances of winning in half.

Quote: Rigondeaux

A ref is watching 20 things happen at once, with incredible speed, while standing there on the floor. The idea that he is perfectly calculating what call to make with regard to the point spread is a little silly.

The Lakers-Kings was an All-Time great screwup by the refs, with motivation to do so, corroborated by other sources that the refs were favoring one team. As I said before, there are rumors and I believe it happened. As hard as it can be to make the right call, every close call went to the Lakers, in addition to calls that weren't close at all. There is a very low probability of that happening just based on degree of difficulty without some outside influence. And even if it was all just one big colossal screwup without anything deeper, the refusal of the league to use replay technology helped to rig the game to whichever team was the beneficiary of those screwups.

Makes me think of the widely held believe that in basketball the refs will often give "make-up" call after they screwup. Just watching casually, it seems like this is true. And it is definitely a form of the refs rigging the game.

Referencing the point spread is silly and meaningless, as that is almost never the basis for why a game would be rigged. (Though there are some examples of when it has been)

Quote: Rigondeaux

Imagine someone claiming your every move was part of some grand scheme to screw them over, and that this was all you thought about 24/7 with perfect focus and flawless execution. Not only that, it was part of a perfectly coordinated effort with everybody else in your life, who was doing the same thing.

Imagine a non-coordinated effort by one person, making one action in their own best interest, without regard for anything else. A cashier dipping into the cash register. Someone taking a sick day so they can go to the beach. Stretching the truth on a resume. A fight judge scoring it for the guy who will help them keep their job. If you believe those first three could happen, the last one seems pretty reasonable.

It seems like there may be some misunderstandings as far as what someone means by sports being rigged and someone else saying they aren't rigged.


How often do you think sporting events are rigged? Are you suggesting maybe several NBA games are rigged every week? Are most (big) boxing fights rigged? How rigged do you consider to be rigged? Obviously there's going to be a level of bias, whether you naturally favor Floyd, the Warriors, or if you're more inclined to let a fight go on longer / stop it quicker than what other refs may. But do you think there's a conscious effort to favor one side versus the other, as in the ref is purposely calling extra fouls on purpose (which is different than a subconscious bias)?

Not everything I said was in reference to your post Tom. I was saying even the examples you gave were questionable. Then pontificating about the subject as a whole, which is part of what you discussed.

But no I don't see how the NFL draft is rigged. It is designed to help the worst teams. I don't know. Are tournaments that reward the best teams with byes or good seeds rigged? That just doesn't make sense with my understanding of the word.

Rewatching the end of the fight. The stoppage was on the early side but well within the parameters of fairness and normalcy A gassed fighter was out of the fight. His hands were down. Opponent was teeing off almost at will. Given 10 more seconds, there is little doubt Connor would be properly KOed, and perhaps badly hurt. Could have waited for 1 more hay maker but again, a snap judgement from a first person perspective in the heat of the moment. I'd be shocked if the possibility of Connor winning was anywhere in his mind.

The ref might consider the lopsidedness of the overall fight. In this case, the fact that the dude was an amateur. And lean to preventing the last 1 or 2 punches that could be devastating.

Though he put in a relatively great performance, Connor did not have a 1% chance before the fight started, let alone at that point.

How many punches in a row did Mayweather land? Connor was out of gas, defenseless and in jeopardy.
Only people who had Conor think the fight ended prematurely.

Quote: lilredrooster

one of the best deals you will ever get in horse racing is betting against the not so wise wiseguys who think the fix is in
some trainers are winning around 30% - an outlandish % - everybody who knows knows he's juicing the horses with illegal drugs - and he most probably is

so this trainer claims a nobody horse who in the last 3 races has finished, 9, 10 and 12 lengths behind the winner in his last 3 races
and these not so wise wiseguys bet this horse way down believing the trainer is going to juice the horse and he's going to win

but this trainer is not a miracle worker
this horse is not going to win (or very, very seldom)

nice edge betting against "the fix".


I once saw them bet way down a horse with a juicing trainer who had finished 30, then 28 lengths behind the winner in his 2 races before last. and in his last race he did not finish- he was pulled up



an example of stupid people who think they're really smart

I dont know if the "the fix" is in or not. I do know in some sports it has, does, and can happen. Tennis and soccer come to mind. I have no doubt ZK is being over paranoid(ABOUT EVERYTHING). And that's ok, someone has to do THE ZK thing.
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I have rarely messed with the horses, the few times I have there was a clear advantage. At a time back in the 90's when I first started APing there was lots easy very low-risk consistent AP money to be made. I got to know quite a few guys that were doing the same type of plays that I was, some even started before I had. After a short while, I could tell the ones that bet on the horses. They were all very unkept, half crazy, and broke (or close to it) by the end of each day. Half of them loved to tell me how good they were at the horses.

I dont think 95%of the guys or gals on this site fits the above description of horse bettors. So don't be offended by my story. I'm not Horseist, I just stereotype guys I see betting horses in the "horsebook"

Rigged versus riggable?
I've possibly created a new word here.
Consider various Overs in Cricket Test Matches.
Playing to a lesser advantage will hardly be detected, won't cost any points and wont affect the game.
So it is relatively easy to get a player to accept a hundred grand to do it.

With all these forms on in-game betting the cheating market is worth millions.

With millions at stake,,, what do you think happens.

Look at those very experienced homicide cops at The Met who needed counseling when a member of a cheating ring let his cell phone go dead and couldn't call in the results in a game that was 'live' . Two minutes of delay and it took him atleast two days to die. Heck, it took his cat at least two days also.

I have half a brain and I noticed. I also watch the 'Serbian Lottery Scandal' on youtube and was SHOCKED. Why, they draw their numbers the exact same way we here in the states draw our Mega Millions and Power Ball numbers! But, no WAY would OUR boys fleece us. Anyway, sports, or anything where there is that much money involved, of course somewhere there's going to be a Tony Soprano with his hand out, waiting for his cut. It's the way it is and the way it's always been.

Let's put the rigging thing aside for one second. I think everything is rigged these days so maybe I might be overthinking it, but I doubt it. After all I've said in my OP, it sure is suspicious, especially when a professional NBA ref was caught and sent to prison for rigging it as well as several players back in the day, I believe it was the 80s or early 90s where several new york knicks players were bought out, can't remember the exact date, but I remember reading an article about it.

But assuming it's all fair and square, I've always been intrigued of live-betting because just off the top of my head, I feel like that could be a major AP play, but never really dug deep into it. The in-game odds being put out by these sportsbooks throughout the game will always be less accurate than having days to put out a line before a game starts, and that's obviously due to time being the issue. This is especially true for the smaller local books who don't get to compare their lines to the major sportsbooks because once again, time is an issue. Not to mention, even if they still put out accurate lines, if you've done your homework before the game and you're able to see what kind of motivation and intangible things are happening from one team and not the other, it might reinforce your bet to double down or maybe cut your losses and bet on the 'hungrier' team etc. This is a huge variance reducer and should be +EV if you do it right. The point made by Tom regarding the Hawaii - UNLV game is a good example of that. If you felt Hawaii was a great pick before the game, but then you see how they came out flat for whatever reason, you might now be inclined to change your bet. I feel like live betting allows further flexibility to the studious observer. Of course you still have to do your homework to make a rational educated bet, but it should lower the risk a lot especially when you made a +EV bet to begin with.

Also to the people mentioning the drafts in professional sports. Has anyone seen the NBA draft and how it's done? lol. They literally do it in the 'back' and not one person in the general public gets to see what is happening with those ping pong balls as they decide who gets the number 1 pick LOL. I mean seriously? Why can't they just show some integrity and do it in the front of everyone? Red flags should be going off in everyone's head after that suspicious procedure. By the way, Tom and RIGondeaux(seriously just realized you have the word 'rig' in your name lol). Anyway, you guys seem to be talking about rigging the draft in a different way, saying they favor favorable teams. Do you mean that teams with losing records shouldn't be awarded a better chance to land a top pick? That's not really 'rigging' per se. That's just a horrible policy in place because it destroys competition. The NBA and the NFL should introduce the same league policy as they do in international soccer. If you don't get in the top 95% of the standings you get RELEGATED to another division. This will end 'tanking' as we know it and not have teams purposely games and thereby enhancing competition throughout the whole season regardless if a team is already eliminated for the playoffs. The NBA and the NFL need to implement at the least another division, maybe two for all the relegated teams. Of course this will entail needing more professional teams to create a multi division sport, but it has to be done. I think it would be a +EV business decision and a strong negotiating point at the table with prospective owners.

Quote: BaccaratKid

I have half a brain and I noticed. I also watch the 'Serbian Lottery Scandal' on youtube and was SHOCKED. Why, they draw their numbers the exact same way we here in the states draw our Mega Millions and Power Ball numbers! But, no WAY would OUR boys fleece us. Anyway, sports, or anything where there is that much money involved, of course somewhere there's going to be a Tony Soprano with his hand out, waiting for his cut. It's the way it is and the way it's always been.

Wait until you see how the NBA draft is done. LOL

Quote: Rigondeaux

Though he put in a relatively great performance, Connor did not have a 1% chance before the fight started, let alone at that point.

If you knew that before the bout, well may we ask how much you won?

Regarding the stoppage, I recall but don't care enough to dig it out, but wasn't the over/under(rounds) impacted by the stoppage? Thanks.

I don't remember but I started getting Floyd at -1300 or something and never dreamed it would get where it did.

I said on the forum several times that Connor had no realistic chance.

That was, to some degree, speculation on my part though the premise of an amateur beating an all time great elite athlete in his sport seems objectively far fetched. Guess it was logically possible that Connor was some kind of once every 1,000 year talent who could achieve such a thing.

Upon watching the fight, it was clear that this was not the case and Connor could only win if Floyd tore his Achilles or something.

A skydive could have landed on Mayweather mid bout and he still wouldn't lose that fight.

Another suspicious 'injury' to one of the bulls main players. That's 2 of their best players once again out at the beginning of the season just like last year. I watched the whole game yesterday and NOT once did I see Kris Dunn hurt his knee. Apparently they even checked him out during the game and had him return to the game after seeing nothing. So either this medical staff is completely incompetent which is very possible as their main players go down every year or these players are faking it. This was his first game back after coincidentally having a kid as soon as the season starts. Really? Out of 365 days in the year, it just happened to fall on the exact day the season started or maybe the night before? You just cant make this stuff up.

Theyre saying hes now out for 4-6 weeks with a moderate MCL injury. We already have our best player Markannen out 6-8 weeks with some random elbow sprain thag he apparently hurt in PRACTICE in the offseason? I mean really? Not to mention the perfect timing touch fouls called all throughout the game once again to keep the score close that ultimately ended with the bulls losing by 6 when the spread was +5. Wow what a wonderful coincidence. Im honestly done watching sports. It's clear as day what is happening. The books got hammered on the Bulls over 27.5 that now theres people behind the scenes paying off these players to fake injuries. The whole league needs to be investigated. Complete and utter embarassment.

I doubt the total money on Bulls over 27.5 even equals 1 players salary for the year.

Quote: MaxPen

I doubt the total money on Bulls over 27.5 even equals 1 players salary for the year.

Enough to move the spread to 30.5. No other team in the league moved more than 1.5 in either direction. The bulls moved +3. That basically confirms how right I was about my initial analysis on betting the over. I didnt even mention another really good player in my original analysis, which I dont know how I left him out, that being Justin Holiday. The bulls at 27.5 was way too good to be true, that's for sure.

You guys can say whatever you want and try to rationalize whatever, but that's what these corrupt mafia ridden people behind the scenes prey on. Everything is perfectly carved out to make anyone with a rational explanation just look the other way. I honestly could live with the refs and the commissioner being the only ones 'in' on the fix, but if the players are now in on it as well, that would completely ruin sports for me in general. And from what ive seen over the years is that these injuries happen at the 'perfect timing' every single time.

I also wish someone would do a study on how close the score by the end of the 4th quarter correlates to the point spread every single game of the season, including the playoffs. You would quickly realize this is beyond natural. In a natural fair game, no amount of data analysis by the bookies could predict such a high correlation every game to the point spread. If the spread is 7 points, the 4th quarter is ALWAYS maybe 99% of the time within a range of a 5 to 10 point lead with 5 minutes to go. You're telling me that's legit? If it's a 3 point spread, the game is either anywhere from a tie game to a 5 point game, etc. Just go ahead and observe throughout an NBA game how it has been called by the refs and combine it together and you reach the rigged conclusion that I have.

Here's a nice little observation for any of you. Just pay attention to the next nba game you watch and notice the inconsistency of calls from the first 2-3 quarters and the last 1-2 quarters. The touch fouls you saw early in the game on one team are completely nonexistent when they need to 'come back' and get within the point spread by the end of the 4th quarter. The other team is now getting called for ticky tack fouls whereas the whole game they were getting all the calls both defensively and offensively. It will make you absolutely disgusted.

This is not a normal standard deviation and range of results. In a natural occurring game with no fix, you wouldnt see 99% of results after 43 minutes of action always clearly line up between a certain range of numbers based on the initial spread. If the spread is supposed to be a 50/50 probability with their edge coming from ripping you off 10% on the payout, then how are they predicting with 99% accuracy the range of results every single 4th quarter? Why doesnt a 10+ point NBA underdog ever blow out the favorite team outright and not only cover, but win the moneyline as well and when I say win the moneyline, I dont mean by barely winning by a point, but just straight blowing them out? In a natural occurring game, you would see that happen a lot more times than is happening in these rigged games across all professional sports.

I really hope Im wrong for the sake of how much I love to watch sports, but I just have given up total hope after I started realizing what is truly happening.

Quote: ZenKinG

Enough to move the spread to 30.5. No other team in the league moved more than 1.5 in either direction. The bulls moved +3. That basically confirms how right I was about my initial analysis on betting the over. I didnt even mention another really good player in my original analysis, which I dont know how I left him out, that being Justin Holiday. The bulls at 27.5 was way too good to be true, that's for sure.

You guys can say whatever you want and try to rationalize whatever, but that's what these corrupt mafia ridden people behind the scenes prey on. Everything is perfectly carved out to make anyone with a rational explanation just look the other way. I honestly could live with the refs and the commissioner being the only ones 'in' on the fix, but if the players are now in on it as well, that would completely ruin sports for me in general. And from what ive seen over the years is that these injuries happen at the 'perfect timing' every single time.

I also wish someone would do a study on how close the score by the end of the 4th quarter correlates to the point spread every single game of the season, including the playoffs. You would quickly realize this is beyond natural. In a natural fair game, no amount of data analysis by the bookies could predict such a high correlation every game to the point spread. If the spread is 7 points, the 4th quarter is ALWAYS maybe 99% of the time within a range of a 5 to 10 point lead with 5 minutes to go. You're telling me that's legit? If it's a 3 point spread, the game is either anywhere from a tie game to a 5 point game, etc. Just go ahead and observe throughout an NBA game how it has been called by the refs and combine it together and you reach the rigged conclusion that I have.

Here's a nice little observation for any of you. Just pay attention to the next nba game you watch and notice the inconsistency of calls from the first 2-3 quarters and the last 1-2 quarters. The touch fouls you saw early in the game on one team are completely nonexistent when they need to 'come back' and get within the point spread by the end of the 4th quarter. The other team is now getting called for ticky tack fouls whereas the whole game they were getting all the calls both defensively and offensively. It will make you absolutely disgusted.

This is not a normal standard deviation and range of results. In a natural occurring game with no fix, you wouldnt see 99% of results after 43 minutes of action always clearly line up between a certain range of numbers based on the initial spread. If the spread is supposed to be a 50/50 probability with their edge coming from ripping you off 10% on the payout, then how are they predicting with 99% accuracy the range of results every single 4th quarter? Why doesnt a 10+ point NBA underdog ever blow out the favorite team outright and not only cover, but win the moneyline as well and when I say win the moneyline, I dont mean by barely winning by a point, but just straight blowing them out? In a natural occurring game, you would see that happen a lot more times than is happening in these rigged games across all professional sports.

I really hope Im wrong for the sake of how much I love to watch sports, but I just have given up total hope after I started realizing what is truly happening.

I have a hard time understanding how you can draw a lot of those conclusions with certainty yet cannot figure out how to exploit the exploiters.

Quote: ZenKinG

I think everything is rigged these days .

I would think you are right. Tour de France rigged? That was the last straw for me.

There are always Sharpies out there who have no qualms about making a dishonest dollar and always people who will take a look at the stick and take a look at the carrot and know what to do.

Quote: MaxPen

I doubt the total money on Bulls over 27.5 even equals 1 players salary for the year.

I admit that I am guessing. But with Max bets around $500 to $2000 ( I think) I guess that any individual book's exposure on this tops out at a bad player's salary for 1 game.

Never mind the books themselves, which made $250 million in hold last year, just in Nevada

One thing I do believe though is that a player timed the birth of his child to save South Point sports book $4,000.

Quote: FleaStiff

Consider various Overs in Cricket Test Matches.
Playing to a lesser advantage will hardly be detected, won't cost any points and wont affect the game.
So it is relatively easy to get a player to accept a hundred grand to do it.

The money is made on Mendas and Maidens.
Mendas might be comparable to an UNDER and of course a Maiden is a zero score in the Over which means that a fixer has to have fixed each of the two teams.
The play will still appear to be reasonable