bigfoot66
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
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May 28th, 2017 at 12:36:15 PM permalink
I'm a fan of Cousin Sal from the Jimmy Kimmel show and was excited that he recently started his own podcast, "against all odds". He is something of a sports gambling "expert" (enthusiast? He presents himself as a guy who just likes sports gambling, not an expert) appearing regularly on the Bill Simmons podcast.

Anyway, on episode 2 of the new podcast they discuss gambling on the outcome of the NBA lottery. He states that one of the teams is +280 and that this was a terrible bet--The fair payout on this bet is +400 since this team had a quarter of the balls and the odds they win are 1 in 4.

I was amazed that someone who has been gambling his whole life would not understand the way that odds and fair payouts can be calculated. I expected a sheepish apology on the next podcast where he explained that he got a million mean tweets insulting him for this elementary error, but it hasn't even come up! Could it be that the large majority of people listening thought his analysis is correct?

This is not meant as an insult to Sal, who I enjoy. It simply amazes me that there is so much ignorance of how odds work among a group of people who are interested in gambling.
Last edited by: bigfoot66 on May 28, 2017
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iamnomad
iamnomad
Joined: Nov 3, 2014
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May 28th, 2017 at 1:08:31 PM permalink
I'm sure he's been told. But many of these guys never want to admit they've made a mistake. They become less of an "expert" if they do. Ever hear Colin Cowherd say he was wrong? Never to a listener, only when he's called out by an in-studio guest.
bigfoot66
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
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May 28th, 2017 at 1:37:11 PM permalink
Perhaps. Sal is more of a joker/comedian. I agree with what you said but not sure if it applies to Sal, i think he would take the opportunity to make fun of himself but of course I'm speculating.
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Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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May 29th, 2017 at 5:14:01 AM permalink
Cowherd is a buffoonish know it all.

Sal, like Simmons, at least pretends to be humble. I think he'd be willing to admit the error. Maybe he just thought it wouldn't be entertaining.

Only thing that kinda annoys me with those guys is they still play up the ordinary guy routine, even though they are now very wealthy.

It's all sort of weird to me. I don't totally get squares (who are not idiots) who insist on being square. But I do have friends like this, who bet on stuff like their assessment of the coaches, or their belief that one team will be really motivated. I explain to them why they are wrong, and tell them how to make money, and they ignore me.

I think part of that is just the dream of gambling. But I'm pretty confident that if these guys had millions in the bank, they'd promptly lose interest in trying to beat their bookies for $200 on Sundays.

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