coilman
coilman
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March 11th, 2017 at 4:15:59 AM permalink
tonights High 5 wager is a MUST PAY ...and with a carryover of almost $600,000 going in the expected pool is $2Million plus

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/notices/3-8-17/jackpot-hi-5-mandatory-payout-saturday.html

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Supplementary%20Race%20Documents/SB-Programs/March%2011,%202017.pdf
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 11th, 2017 at 4:32:03 AM permalink
Quote: coilman

tonights High 5 wager is a MUST PAY ...and with a carryover of almost $600,000 going in the expected pool is $2Million plus

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/notices/3-8-17/jackpot-hi-5-mandatory-payout-saturday.html

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Supplementary%20Race%20Documents/SB-Programs/March%2011,%202017.pdf



Given the carryover, expected new betting, and 15% takeout, what do you figure the EV for a bet is?
coilman
coilman
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March 11th, 2017 at 1:32:21 PM permalink
This is the night (MUST PAY NIGHT) the smart bettors wait for ... all the other nights leading up to this we laugh at the guys feeding the pool. To win on a regular night you need to hold the ONLY WINNING TICKET otherwise they take out the cut 15% divide the pool in two and pay out half between the winners and increase the pool with the other half

think about that EV on a regular night
Say $10,000 bet takeout $1500 leaving $8500 plus any pool money ...but as you can see it doesnt happen often so the pot grows and the winning bettors that night ONLY get paid out $4250 !!! 57.5% rake on the bets that night

tonight $1,700,000 will most likely be paid out,split between all the winners
minimum wagers are 20 cent tickets which is why the pool builds to must pay days

only bad thing about must pay nights they run a field of 12 instead of the usually 10
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 11th, 2017 at 2:23:28 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

This is the night (MUST PAY NIGHT) the smart bettors wait for ... all the other nights leading up to this we laugh at the guys feeding the pool. To win on a regular night you need to hold the ONLY WINNING TICKET otherwise they take out the cut 15% divide the pool in two and pay out half between the winners and increase the pool with the other half

think about that EV on a regular night
Say $10,000 bet takeout $1500 leaving $8500 plus any pool money ...but as you can see it doesnt happen often so the pot grows and the winning bettors that night ONLY get paid out $4250 !!! 57.5% rake on the bets that night

tonight $1,700,000 will most likely be paid out,split between all the winners
minimum wagers are 20 cent tickets which is why the pool builds to must pay days

only bad thing about must pay nights they run a field of 12 instead of the usually 10



I understand those concepts. That is why I asked my question which I will repeat. Given the carryover, 15% takeout, and expected new bets, what is the (guess) EV for a bet tonight?
Mission146
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Mission146
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March 11th, 2017 at 2:54:06 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I understand those concepts. That is why I asked my question which I will repeat. Given the carryover, 15% takeout, and expected new bets, what is the (guess) EV for a bet tonight?



(1/12)*(1/11)*(1/10)*(1/9)*(1/8) = 0.00001052188

1/0.00001052188 = 1 in 95040.049877

It appears that the player has a 1 in 95,040 to pick the Top 5 finishers of the race, in order, if randomly picking.

It appears that the person picking the horses must make a bet of $0.20 in order to be allowed to purchase a Hi-5 ticket.

Thus:

0.00001052188 * x = 0.20

Ergo:

x= 19008.009975

Therefore, a $0.20 ticket would have to have an expected return of $19,008.01, picking randomly, in order to yield an Expected Return infinitesimally greater than 100%.

From the first link in the OP:

Quote:

A $0.20 winning ticket on the December 23rd mandatory payout returned $4,842.70.



Therefore, the EV is terrible if one is picking randomly. If I had to approximate something, I would probably just go based on the odds to win and pick in that order, so...

(1/3)*(1/4)*(1/8)*(1/8)*(1/10) = 0.00013020833

1/0.00013020833 = 1 in 7,680

If we improve my probability of winning to 1 in 7,680, then if I must buy a ticket for $0.20:

0.00013020833 * x = .20

x = 1536.000039

Thus, the win would have to pay $1,536 for me to be at 100%. Based on the past winning ticket value:

4842.70/1536 = 3.15279947917

I would say the expected value of that ticket is 315.28%

I say that ticket because every ticket has a different theoretical probability of winning depending on the actual probability of the five finishers finishing in that order, which I'm not sure anyone can be said to know.

Probably not the best way to guess that, but that's the best thing I can think of.
Vultures can't be choosers.
GWAE
GWAE
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March 11th, 2017 at 3:59:36 PM permalink
Problem with picking the best 5 odds, you will split it like 4290 times.
coilman
coilman
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March 11th, 2017 at 8:57:50 PM permalink
$1,406,000 of new money found its way into this pool tonight

thats over 7 MILLION 20 cent combinations

out of those 7 Million plus combinations 44 connected using

1/6/7/2/4 each worth a bit more than $38,179

tax free if bet in Canada

none of it coming my way

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/racing/results/data/r0311wdbsn.dat#N10


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=230sI50b3qQ

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