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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 19th, 2017 at 11:15:33 AM permalink
Handicapper Dan Gordon has just died. We had a thread earlier on WoV that discussed the value of his picks. I believe he was an excellent handicapper. I found out the news from a thread on BJTF. Several people there posted and he was highly regarded there and by many others. I communicated with him there and I disagreed with one of his picks and he was very courteous and respectful in his replies. He often did free analysis of NFL bets there. When he did this he never promoted his service. He was the author of 3 books all of which are highly regarded. The most popular was "Beat the Sports Books" which is included in Arnold Synder's website's library. He also wrote "Memoirs of a Sports Bettor and Blackjack Earner," and "Las Vegas Blackjack Diary" which he wrote under the pseudonym of Stuart Perry. Linked is the thread with the comments from BJTF if you would care to read them. RIP Dan.


https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?38402-RIP-Dan-Gordon
genius has its limitations. but stupidity is boundless.
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
March 19th, 2017 at 11:46:59 AM permalink
Touts are the scum of the earth. The largest collection of frauds and snake oil salesmen. Stay away. Far away.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 8th, 2017 at 8:08:00 PM permalink
Long term they all seem to fail. However a site called FansUnite tracks amateur cappers. There are some guys on there above 55% even after many hundreds of picks. Sometimes it's good to tail a hot hand or fade a consistent loser.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 9th, 2017 at 9:33:50 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

...However a site called [EDIT: I'll call it DYSLEXICS-UNTIE since I don't like to create free traffic for suchlike] tracks amateur cappers. There are some guys...

Love it when an enterprise in this little subculture is acquired in a public stock transaction. Sometimes giving a peek into the reality of their business model as described to potential equity investors, even if it is among outfits traded in the notorious Canadian "pink sheets." This one was bought for a total of $2mil just about 8 months ago, by a kinda-sorta-almost-maybe-quasi-legal web-bookie operation, not long after a few guys cooked up a plan that sounds semi-brilliant when starting 'Dyslexics-Untie' in a little internet venture incubator in Boulder. The plan was to market themselves as a kinda grassrootsie almost counter-culturey sounding "crowd sourcing" concept for the purpose of presenting themselves in a "new-different" way to the pool of (relatively passive & not so inquisitive) sports gamblers.

And in so doing, simultaneously take advantage of the million monkeys concept. It is a concept in physics that if an infinite number of monkeys are seated at an infinite number of pianos, it becomes a certainty that some of them will happen to compose Beethoven's 5th Symphony. And given enough blind monkeys, some proportion of them will randomly happen to be a "hot shooter" for a while at a dice table, or pick a lot of winners among their cohort of furry banana-chomping coin-flipping sports handicappers.

And, they can monetize their monkey symphony by milking some of the psychological traits of gambling degenerates, who have a stronger than average emotional need to "see" mystical patterns, to impose the comfort of a meaning upon random noise (See for example: Gamblers are more impulsive and 'see patterns' where there are none - Science Daily 4/29/2015). So the "free" site sells "premium" memberships to them to get full access to all the *ahem* really good stuff, in-effect selling the monkeys more complete access to themselves. 'Cause some of them are "hot" and they've seen the "patterns" and "trends" to "prove" it!

Finally, the entire simian symphony gets big enough to become a more valuable place to mine for gambling degens, of course. A source of referrals of fish for bookies being the basic part of the baseline of everything in that world. Hence, the Vancouver boys modestly cashing out in their stock transaction last September. I think they shoulda got more later, but maybe they are also shooting up the products too, and needed quick moolah yesterday. Still, I think these kids have a future. Perhaps selling newer better virtual-ice to Eskimos.
Nevermind.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 9th, 2017 at 12:51:27 PM permalink
Interesting info about penny stock scams.

However if a monkey can hit 60% on 1000 picks. Especially when there are less than a few hundred monkeys typing away trying to reproduce Shakespeare then maybe one of them monkeys isn't just hitting random keys? And it doesn't matter either? If you find a monkey writing Shakespeare and its earlier in the book maybe stick around for awhile and see what else happens. Or maybe not?
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 9th, 2017 at 2:24:45 PM permalink
Or, yes it most definitely does matter a helluva lot, since in any significant assortment of random coin flips you WILL have some that fit whatever you are seeking and wanting to believe, and when that is what they are their predictive value of any choice among them for what the next several coin flips will is exactly ZERO. Why put the money in the "hot" lobstermania slot machine, why not the one that is now "due" instead? Or on the "hot shooter" at the dice table. Or maybe the one that's "due" now. Why not indeed; if you don't know what the causal relationship (the why) is, there will usually be no "why." At all. Most of the monkeys who just wrote the first half of King Lear will now write "grzlfritzlph" and those that wrote "uydvlgh" are just as likely to now write a few lines of Romeo & Juliet.

But if this is not immediately intuitively obvious to some, which tends to be especially true of some guys & gals born with a special kind of mental & emotional makeup who REALLY like gamblin' it up and doing what looks, sounds, and feels good to them, then I personally don't believe in saving people from themselves. I think it is probably just as well for those poor folks to puke the money away on "picks" or in whatever direction feels/sounds/looks good at the moment, 'cause none of that or any other moolah will ever be hanging around long enough to feel attached to that poor sap, ever, in their lifetime, 'till the day they die.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 9, 2017
Nevermind.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 9th, 2017 at 2:42:44 PM permalink
DD,

Like I said if a monkey hits 55-60% ATS over 1000 picks it likely isn't random. And even if it was I'd tail it after a few hundred picks. Maybe if you saw 60% over 10000 picks you'd jump on board. Calculate the stats and ask yourself "maybe this isn't a monkey". Billy Walters must have been very lucky in your view of the world?
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 9th, 2017 at 3:14:22 PM permalink
Yes, there are some (a VERY small fraction) who manage long-range success at sports betting. And by hook or crook or luck or by being a very small scale clever guy sometimes, except when I'm not, I've got a modest profit at doing a very few things within it, doing some very selective things highly specialized on what I believe I know very well. So I'll continue to enjoy doing that myself, so long as it works and stays fun. And yes, when a sample gets large enough and consistent enough from something or someone, it becomes more and more interesting to investigate whether and what kind of causal relationship might be going on. But these are always much more likely to exist in the mind of gamblers who really want to "see" that, when there is none.

And you cite an excellent example. Besides of a lot of deliberate PR (and stay outta jail) work by the subject, it comes from a little echo chamber of some spectacularly gullible gamblers eager to "see" and "know" what they believe. Because "everybody" knows that. And that true-believer echo chamber repeats it endlessly among themselves with religious zeal, proving that it is true because everybody they know "knows" the story he peddles about himself must be true.
Quote: bazooooka

Billy Walters must have been very lucky in your view of the world?

Uhh, not exactly, since Billy Walters' money hasn't got a damn thing to do with making sports picks. This is how Billy Walters got one of the big chunks of money he's laundered through his supposed "sports bettor" bullshit, in case you're really interested:

http://www.americanmafia.com/Inside_Vegas/5-23-16_Inside_Vegas.html

http://www.stevemiller4lasvegas.com/TravelGolfarticleonWalters1a.pdf
http://www.stevemiller4lasvegas.com/TravelGolfarticleonWalters2a.pdf
http://www.stevemiller4lasvegas.com/TravelGolfArticleonWalters3a.pdf

Walters' thieving scams have been well known locally for decades, since they aren't really any too subtle, and the number and length of his payoffs within the local political machine and the amounts stolen are truly massive. Steve Miller has done an excellent job of following Walters' ACTUAL business for a long time. This description of one example (among many) is copyrighted by Miller, but he does encourage distribution, with attribution as per the link above:

Quote: Steve Miller

...<SNIP>...

In 1999, when Walters bought the city land, "Councilman" McDonald's only income was his $33,000 per year council salary, and he lived in a tiny bungalow valued at $46,140 by the Clark County Assessor.

Today, Michael McDonald is Chairman of the Nevada Republican Party, and lives in Billy Walters' luxurious 2520 Pinto Lane house.

The house is valued at over one million dollars, features a twelve car garage, and sits on an acre in one of Las Vegas' most plush neighborhoods near Rancho and Alta Drives. McDonald's salary as chairman of the state GOP barely covers the estate's utility bills, and he has no other known income.

McDonald purchased the home in 2005, but was about to lose it in a 2009 bankruptcy when Walters stepped in to buy the property while allowing McDonald to remain its sole resident. Its not currently known whether McDonald pays Walters rent for living in the rescued house.

In 1999, Michael McDonald. as a LV Councilman, fought for Walters' ability to purchase the 160 taxpayer-owned acres for only $894,000 ($5,600 per acre) when adjacent land was selling for $30,000 - $40,000 per acre according to county records. McDonald did so based on the promise that Walters would charge low green fees for locals, and accept a permanent deed restriction to limit the land's use to golf course only. McDonald argued vehemently that the $894,000 was desperately needed for parks. He and then-Mayor Jan Jones scoffed at protesters including a certified land appraiser who testified that multiple parks could be built if the city would sell the 160 acres at fair market value.

After the land appraiser told the council that the land was worth more than $40,000 per acre at the time of the hearing, Jones angrily held up a front page article I authored, and said, 'I know what ex-councilman Steve Miller thinks is true, and I take exception. Land is worth what land is worth. You can speculate. Maybe someday this will be worth a lot of money. Maybe it won't."

Soon thereafter, Walters was charging everyone, including locals, $200 - $260 in green fees. Then to add insult to injury, he began selling "golf course frontage" for $130,000 per acre, and later on was accused of letting the fairways and other facilities deteriorate, claiming the golf course was a failure and he needed to have the deed restriction removed so he could redevelop the land into a higher and better use.

In 2005, after many more Bali Hai political fund raisers, Bill Walters was allowed to sell the once-city-owned land for $54 million, the same year Michael McDonald moved into his Pinto Lane estate.

...<SNIP>...

Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 9, 2017
Nevermind.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 9th, 2017 at 3:31:19 PM permalink
DD,

Agreed; Billy ain't a Saint. And I'm sure he lost his sports betting edge many years ago as the quants have taken over this game.

But I do believe, that he did at one time - beat the book for many years and 10000s of picks.

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