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Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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February 3rd, 2017 at 2:34:57 PM permalink
Is this guy who is selling picks legit?

The answer is almost certainly, no. The only long term, real winner who sells picks that I know of is Right Angle Sports. Their fees are very high and when they release their picks, you have only seconds to make your bet before the line moves.

So the first question is, if tout X is also a winner, why are neither of these things the case with him?

Here is a deep takedown of RJ Bell and all the touts associated with pregame.

http://deadspin.com/how-america-s-favorite-sports-betting-expert-turned-a-s-1782438574


"Bell loves to say that every pick ever sold on Pregame is archived and available for review. This is ostensibly true, but to access results older than 30 days requires clicking through a calendar, day by day, and entering CAPTCHA codes for each one. Before long you find yourself in an infinite CAPTCHA loop, unable to continue, blocked from any attempts to tabulate the hard evidence.

Until now. Two real-world bettors, one of whom is a former financial analyst in his late 20s who is highly regarded by oddsmakers, developed a script to scrape Pregame.com URLs for daily selections and results going back to Jan. 1 2011, and their findings speak for themselves.

Based on Pregame’s own record-keeping—which leans kindly toward its touts—all of the picks sold from Jan. 1, 2011 through the end of May 2016 add up to a loss of nearly $310,000."

Also, I thought this was funny.



There are degrees. Some touts set out to be con artists from day one. Others might work pretty hard on their picks, but just can't beat widely available lines.

There are people who give away free picks, or commentary, who are pretty legitimate. But even that is hard to do.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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February 3rd, 2017 at 2:45:13 PM permalink
Here is a good Twitter follow on the subject. Groovin is, to the best of my knowledge, a very successful bettor.

For some reason, he is obsessed with discrediting touts. He is a somewhat abrasive character, and many in the anti-tout community are far more abrasive.

He also shares some pretty good info, often in the process of discrediting a tout by pointing out mathematical errors and so forth.

https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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February 3rd, 2017 at 3:34:53 PM permalink
I was 52.6% last year

I should tout
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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February 3rd, 2017 at 4:19:02 PM permalink
Nothing like the old days of Mike (Lasky) Warren, Jim Feist, Stu Feiner and former Vice Presidential Candidate Wayne Allan Root. Somehow Root has made himself seem legitimate writing for the Review Journal and distancing himself from his time as a scamdicapper back in the days of 1-900 numbers.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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February 3rd, 2017 at 6:31:19 PM permalink
I can see a case if their advice is better than randomly picking bets. If you know nothing, some bad advice could be better
than no advice. I think any kind of advice is bad if not given a reason they came upon a choice, so the tip receiver can evaluate the pick. Plus the cost of the tips must pay for itself. Even $10 you would have to bet so much just to pay for the advice, assuming the advice is sound. I guess I can not agree necessarily such advice is always fraudulent, but tend to consider the advice overvalued, overpriced.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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February 3rd, 2017 at 6:34:43 PM permalink
Rigondeaux selling his picks confirmed

*He's actually really good, I've followed some of his picks.
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
Zourah
Zourah
Joined: Mar 26, 2016
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February 3rd, 2017 at 7:05:56 PM permalink
There is a guy who's on the Kansas City radio, Fat Jack.

I know people who have purchased his picks and as well as I can tell he does post all of his past choices on the website. Obviously, when he advertises on the site he focuses on his better records but I think everything is there for people to check out. As best as I can tell, he is mildly profitable.

There was about a 10 year timeframe (the aughts) where I picked about eight to ten college football games a week and posted them on a Missouri fan site. I was just trying to challenge myself, I never wanted to sell the picks as that is too much pressure. I only had one year below 52.3%, hit over 60% twice and was usually in the high 50s.

Over the last few years though I'm probably lucky to be at 50%. I cannot explain why I ever did so well except a couple of those years Missouri dramatically overachieved and I'm a homer so I tend to pick Missouri a lot! Still, that was a pretty nice run, I also used to pick every Big 12 game and I was pretty locked into those teams before MU left the conference. Since the SEC move I'm completely inconsistent, or consistently bad!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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February 3rd, 2017 at 7:09:09 PM permalink
I came upon this site http://racingdudes.com/mahoning-valley/

I think as far as free picks go, favorite, second favorite, third favorite, anybody can do that. Even if these picks were good, by giving the picks, you destroy the value when people play them. I like getting information with explanation. If I chose to not buy the explanation, it's still possibly good advice, because then I can move to counter the advice and play against it.



I watch tvg and really like Catan Bradar.
She knows her stuff, and when I've made bets based on her advice, I've done well. I do not take it every time, but I listen closely.The nice thing about her picks is they're not always the favorites, and people don't flood to her picks betting them down. Her advice isn't just the looks of the horse, but also has her handicapping and experience involved. You just have to know how to judge what she says, balance her advice against input from other commenters, decide if she really believes it and decide if she is right or not. I could be fooling myself, that's possible, but really feel when I decide to bet on her advice, I do better than knowing nothing and betting randomly.

I like Matt Carouthers as well, he's good. The late night guys, they're terrible though on tvg. Half the time I'm sitting there wondering if they're trying to move people on bad horses. They're so bad I sometimes have to pay attention to who they're avoiding talking about or what they're trying to avoid talking about. I remember once a man mentioned he wondered if man b's pick would stay higher, wondering if 3/1 would stick. I could tell man b did not want to talk about it, as if taboo to discuss it. When it was glossed over, I knew it was my bet to make and it won. Even though I've lost with my betting, it's attributable to betting all the time and making my own bets, which sometimes is just betting randomly. I dont really bet much more when I feel confident, possibility something I should be doing. I think being more selective with a bigger bet range might help, but I'm not really wanting money tied up or shouldn't have it tied up, because I might need it sooner than I can get it out.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
Zourahonenickelmiracle
February 3rd, 2017 at 7:52:48 PM permalink
I am skeptical of fat jack. It is very easy to fudge records or to claim picks here and there after lines move and this is what almost all touts do. It only takes a little bit.

Plus, you have to be able to make the bets that the person you are following makes, assuming the even bet. This is hard even when following someone for free, especially if the are making good bets.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I can see a case if their advice is better than randomly picking bets. If you know nothing, some bad advice could be better
than no advice. I think any kind of advice is bad if not given a reason they came upon a choice, so the tip receiver can evaluate the pick. Plus the cost of the tips must pay for itself. Even $10 you would have to bet so much just to pay for the advice, assuming the advice is sound. I guess I can not agree necessarily such advice is always fraudulent, but tend to consider the advice overvalued, overpriced.



Well thats a big key. If you are paying just to lose more slowly you now have a lot more juice to overcome. If they are 1% better than random and charge 10 a pick now you gotta bet a g a game to break even on the purchase.

This assumes you have some way of knowing they are 1% better, which you don't.

Plenty of people give picks for free and some of them are pretty smart. Just go with them.
Zourah
Zourah
Joined: Mar 26, 2016
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February 3rd, 2017 at 8:04:18 PM permalink
Good point

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