Mission146
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Mission146
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January 28th, 2017 at 7:08:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks for your comments. I was downtown this afternoon thinking about betting the Falcons at the Golden Nugget, who had the best lines for them in Vegas. As I was staring at the board I saw a couple professional sports bettors down there I have a lot of respect for. I'm not sure I should say who. Both of them liked the Patriots and the under. I'm still hesitant to bet the Patriots but I definitely like the under.



You're welcome, it's an interesting subject. I think what makes it the most interesting game of the year is not just that it is the Big Game, but also because it is the game for which we have the most data possible from that season. I wouldn't mention any professional sports bettors by name unless they gave explicit permission to do so, especially since it could hurt them if mentioning what they are betting might cause more people to bet what they are betting and the line ends up getting moved off of what they like and might decide to get more money on, eventually.

I certainly like the Patriots more than the Under, in fact, based on my metric, I would only bet the UNDER 59 if I was getting 100% Even Money on it. In fact, I'm not even convinced I like the UNDER that much.

If you like the UNDER, I think that is an even more compelling reason to like NE -3. My reasoning behind that is that we know NE tears weak defenses apart. Tearing weak defenses apart is something Brady has done his entire career. The only real exception this year was the game @ NYJ in which the Patriots won 22-17, and that took the Jets playing what I believe was the best game they've played all year on both sides of the ball, particularly with respect to the way the held NE on Third Down. The Jets would not fare so well in NE when Brady and company hung 41 points on them, of course.

Anyway, if the game is going to go UNDER 59, I think the most likely reason for that to happen is because the defense of NE by and large holds the offense of ATL more or less in check. While possible, it is difficult to imagine that NE posts fewer than 28 points against a team that allowed 24.8 per game throughout the regular season. Granted, ATL has played some of the best scoring teams in the league this year, but ATL-NO-NE are 1-2-3 in that regard and ATL allowed NO to post up 32 points in each game in which they played one another during the season.

For reasons stated in this post and my previous post, I submit that NE should score 30 or more points in this game. If that is the case, and you like the UNDER 59, then NE winning by more than three is the most conceivable (though certainly not only) way for that to happen.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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January 28th, 2017 at 9:18:05 PM permalink
The Patriots appear to be -3 +102 at P.I&N#N!A8C0L7E right now. I'd jump on that while it lasts if you can access it.
Vultures can't be choosers.
djatc
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January 28th, 2017 at 11:05:11 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The Patriots appear to be -3 +102 at P.I&N#N!A8C0L7E right now. I'd jump on that while it lasts if you can access it.



That's a good bet

I think the Pats are so juiced up every week that you'll never find a good price on them, this is a steal. I did bet them when Brady was out and got even money on one week.
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
Mission146
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Mission146
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January 29th, 2017 at 12:17:08 AM permalink
Quote: djatc


That's a good bet

I think the Pats are so juiced up every week that you'll never find a good price on them, this is a steal. I did bet them when Brady was out and got even money on one week.



I hope it wasn't Week 4!
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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January 29th, 2017 at 7:21:45 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The Patriots appear to be -3 +102 at P.I&N#N!A8C0L7E right now. I'd jump on that while it lasts if you can access it.



I'm not able to access that. Strange how much range there is in the line this Super Bowl.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
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Mission146
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January 29th, 2017 at 8:47:20 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Mission146

The Patriots appear to be -3 +102 at P.I&N#N!A8C0L7E right now. I'd jump on that while it lasts if you can access it.



I'm not able to access that. Strange how much range there is in the line this Super Bowl.



Do you know if it is still -105 at the CG Tech places?

Also, FiveDimes had it at -101 last night, but it appears to have been changed to -105.

I don't know if I am that surprised by the range this year. As I mentioned before, given the caliber (not all that good) of offenses that NE has faced, I think there is a lot of uncertainty going into this one.
Vultures can't be choosers.
ThatDonGuy
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January 29th, 2017 at 9:50:20 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Why, yes - yes, it is. I should have noticed all of the references to "Carolina" and "Denver", shouldn't I? I thought that was one of those "alternative facts" you read about.

Serves me right for trying to do this on a Monday morning...


However, I did catch one for 2017, although it's not exactly an AP:
Go to the Fremont, and bet on the field to be the MVP. If Tom Brady wins, show them the sheet and claim that nobody named on it was named MVP; certainly not "Tom Brad."
EdCollins
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January 29th, 2017 at 10:11:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The over/under on the actual game is 58 to 59. I've never seen my method be so off before. This makes the under look like a great bet. However, it makes me think that I'm missing something.


I've always been under the impression the standard "over/under rules" (when handicapping) didn't apply when it came to the Super Bowl.

I do know many games have gone WAY over the total, and I suspect this is why the line is slightly inflated, so yes, the Under is probably the play.

I don't have immediate access to the over/under of each Super Bowl (I suppose they are available online somewhere) but here's a list of the total points scored in each of the past 14 Super Bowls:

69, 61, 45, 31, 46, 31, 50, 48, 56, 38, 65, 51, 52, 34

Looking at these totals, I suspect at least half of these games did go over.

Note that the Super Bowl often has a way of bringing out the best in a team.

By that I mean, when the Cowboys beat the Bills 52 to 17 in the Super Bowl, way back in 1993, the Cowboys hadn't scored 52 points in a game all year long.

Two years later when the 49ers beat the Chargers 49 to 26 in Super Bowl XXIX, the 49ers hadn't scored 49 all year long. (Edit: Correction. They scored 50 against the Falcons in Week 14.)

Going back even further, in Super Bowl XXIV, the 49ers scored 55 points against the Broncos, and that easily was more points than they scored all year.

When the Bucs beat the Raiders 48 to 21, that was the most points the Bucs had scored all year long.

When Seattle scored 43 in their Super Bowl victory against the Broncos a few years ago, that nearly matched their season high total.

The Super Bowl can be a different beast altogether. I do think "normal" handicapping rules don't apply. (But if you don't have any "new rules" all you can go with are your "standard rules.") :)
WatchMeWin
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January 29th, 2017 at 10:49:08 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

You're welcome, it's an interesting subject. I think what makes it the most interesting game of the year is not just that it is the Big Game, but also because it is the game for which we have the most data possible from that season. I wouldn't mention any professional sports bettors by name unless they gave explicit permission to do so, especially since it could hurt them if mentioning what they are betting might cause more people to bet what they are betting and the line ends up getting moved off of what they like and might decide to get more money on, eventually.

I certainly like the Patriots more than the Under, in fact, based on my metric, I would only bet the UNDER 59 if I was getting 100% Even Money on it. In fact, I'm not even convinced I like the UNDER that much.

If you like the UNDER, I think that is an even more compelling reason to like NE -3. My reasoning behind that is that we know NE tears weak defenses apart. Tearing weak defenses apart is something Brady has done his entire career. The only real exception this year was the game @ NYJ in which the Patriots won 22-17, and that took the Jets playing what I believe was the best game they've played all year on both sides of the ball, particularly with respect to the way the held NE on Third Down. The Jets would not fare so well in NE when Brady and company hung 41 points on them, of course.

Anyway, if the game is going to go UNDER 59, I think the most likely reason for that to happen is because the defense of NE by and large holds the offense of ATL more or less in check. While possible, it is difficult to imagine that NE posts fewer than 28 points against a team that allowed 24.8 per game throughout the regular season. Granted, ATL has played some of the best scoring teams in the league this year, but ATL-NO-NE are 1-2-3 in that regard and ATL allowed NO to post up 32 points in each game in which they played one another during the season.

For reasons stated in this post and my previous post, I submit that NE should score 30 or more points in this game. If that is the case, and you like the UNDER 59, then NE winning by more than three is the most conceivable (though certainly not only) way for that to happen.



Mission, all of your posts regarding the superbowl and your analysis have been spot on. Thank you for your posts. It is evident that you put great thought into it. I have been on both Atlanta and New England pretty much every week as both teams were always my 'go to' teams who rarely disappointed. I think most of the betting world had done the same. Now we are face with the dilemma of having to pick one or the other....sigh Ive watched the Falcons offense absolutely dominate every defense they have play except the Eagles. Ive also watched other teams move the ball without difficulty against the Falcons Defense. Ive watched New England's offense drive easily against other teams, while their defense was absolutely dominant against everyone..although fairly weak teams.. Seattle and Buffalo put up 31 and 25 against them.

So, the ultimate question, what gives? I think I found my answer. I am going to go with history here. The last time a first ranked offense played a first ranked defense was Superbowl 37. Tampa Bay (No 1 Defense) destroyed Oakland (No 1 Offense) 48-21 which ironically was an over game since the Defensive team won. Additionally, the past few weeks have seen just about every favorite and over come in winners. I venture to guess that the trend wont stop here....I didn't think just about all of the favorites and overs would keep winning game after game after game throughout the playoffs, but they did! So, with the aforementioned rationale, Im going Pats and over. I hate that high 58 number, but let history continue to repeat.

I think the key to this game and deciding factor will be whichever team can put more pressure on the other team's qb.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Mission146
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Mission146
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January 29th, 2017 at 1:03:43 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin



Mission, all of your posts regarding the superbowl and your analysis have been spot on. Thank you for your posts. It is evident that you put great thought into it. I have been on both Atlanta and New England pretty much every week as both teams were always my 'go to' teams who rarely disappointed. I think most of the betting world had done the same. Now we are face with the dilemma of having to pick one or the other....sigh Ive watched the Falcons offense absolutely dominate every defense they have play except the Eagles. Ive also watched other teams move the ball without difficulty against the Falcons Defense. Ive watched New England's offense drive easily against other teams, while their defense was absolutely dominant against everyone..although fairly weak teams.. Seattle and Buffalo put up 31 and 25 against them.



Thank you for the compliment! I actually have an in-depth article with further analysis coming out anytime now on LCB that I will be sure to post a link to here. I share your concerns about the games against SEA (sixth) and BUF (tenth) which are the only two Top 10 teams in total scoring they played. Granted, they also held BUF to sixteen in Week 4 when the Patriots were forced to play without an offense. Either way, they have played ZERO teams with an offense of Atlanta's caliber, and have mixed results in the few games they have played against borderline good offenses.

Quote:

So, the ultimate question, what gives? I think I found my answer. I am going to go with history here. The last time a first ranked offense played a first ranked defense was Superbowl 37. Tampa Bay (No 1 Defense) destroyed Oakland (No 1 Offense) 48-21 which ironically was an over game since the Defensive team won. Additionally, the past few weeks have seen just about every favorite and over come in winners. I venture to guess that the trend wont stop here....I didn't think just about all of the favorites and overs would keep winning game after game after game throughout the playoffs, but they did! So, with the aforementioned rationale, Im going Pats and over. I hate that high 58 number, but let history continue to repeat.

I think the key to this game and deciding factor will be whichever team can put more pressure on the other team's qb.



It is also nearly the exact same thing as DEN v. CAR last year, though DEN was not #1 in Opponent Points Allowed, but rather, number four. That game did go Under, but I don't think anyone really expected (or had any reason to believe) that Denver would put a ton. We have no reason to expect otherwise with the ATL/NE matchup, (and let's not forget that Carolina was 6th in Opponent Points Allowed last year with 19.5 compared to 23rd ATL with 23.8 this year) there's really absolutely no reason to believe NE won't hang 30+ on them.

I understand your trends on, 'Favorite/Over,' as that has been the story of the Playoffs, but I tend not to put too much faith in short term trends in what I consider a limited sample size. As you will see in my LCB analysis, my conclusion is Patriots, Lay Three Points, 59 TOTAL is about as solid as the line could be.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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