BAMA Huge Fave to Win it All

Oddsshark says Bovada has them at -250 to win it all. Ohio State at +500, Clemson at +575 and Washington at +1200. You could construct bets on all 3 dogs to win that would get you back profit of more than 2/1 if any one of them wins. Is that a good bet? I'm not sure. I think so. No way I'd take BAMA at -250. What do you think?

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/bcs-national-championship-odds

Quote: lilredrooster

Oddsshark says Bovada has them at -250 to win it all. Ohio State at +500, Clemson at +575 and Washington at +1200. You could construct bets on all 3 dogs to win that would get you back profit of more than 2/1 if any one of them wins. Is that a good bet? I'm not sure. I think so. No way I'd take BAMA at -250. What do you think?

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/bcs-national-championship-odds

The question in my mind is can Ohio State beat Alabama and what is the projected ML on that game? Sure anything can happen but if you think WA can beat them, you take WA in that game on the ML. Not 12/1 but a nice payoff still. While the line in the other game is close, I see Clemson as very suspect based on how they were in so many close games with lessor teams this year.

Anything can happen, but I see Bama winning this thing and its going to take an upset to knock them off. -250 is high, but its still probably going to be the winning bet. Whether or not it is the right bet at this point, I'll leave to others.

As I like to say, "All of the underdogs have one thing in common; they all pay zero if the favorite wins."

That being said, college football playoffs are never sure things; in the 2010 season, Auburn should have run all over Oregon in the BCS championship game, but it took a last-second field goal to win. Given the four options, I think Ohio State at +500 is the best bet. Now watch them lose to Clemson...

Too bad they're going to lose to the Huskies. Gonna be the upset of the year.




I hope.

Quote: lilredrooster

Oddsshark says Bovada has them at -250 to win it all. Ohio State at +500, Clemson at +575 and Washington at +1200. You could construct bets on all 3 dogs to win that would get you back profit of more than 2/1 if any one of them wins

That's not what I get, assuming "2/1" means you get paid better than 2-1:

Saw them - 130 at cantor before the sec championship. Figured it was good, but ran off to do other stuff.

-250 doesn't seem thar bad to me. See -300 some places.

You're right Don. I figured wrong. Still seems like it might be a good bet. To believe Bama is that much stronger than the other 3 you would have to believe that the conference they are in is much stronger. Or else maybe because they crushed some tough teams by a much greater margin. I don't know about that, which conference is the strongest or if one is much stronger than the others. Somebody that knows more than me about college football could maybe comment on that.

Anything can happen in college football (unlike, say, men's tennis.) However, I have closely followed the SEC all this year and Alabama is the best college football team I have ever seen.

1. Their talent level is undeniable. Every player on the Alabama team, down to two deep, is Secretariat. No one is "a few inches short" or "undersized but gutsy" or "doesn't have blazing speed but has great hands and runs a great pass route." They all have great height and great weight and great speed for their position.
- mock NFL drafts are predicting 6 Bama players to go in the first round.

2. Their defense is built around a system that relies on size on the defensive line and world-class speed for the linebackers. And the linemen are fast for their size and the linebackers are all big. The result is you can't run up the middle, and when you try to run outside the linebackers shut you down. The cornerbacks and safeties are not shut-down corners but they are very good and make their share of plays. And, you can rarely block the defensive line when you are trying to pass.

3. Bama is very well coached and it shows on the field. For one example (however trivial), on running plays I have never seen wide receivers that block the defensive secondary as well as Bama's receivers do. Also, Bama commits penalties very rarely - #1 in college football in that category.
- Nick Saban has 6 former head coaches on staff - Lane Kiffin at Offensive Coord. and 5 former head coaches as "Quality Assurance staff."

4. The team has great character. It doesn't panic or get down when something bad happens. It seems like they always answer a TD by their opponents with a TD of their own. Their best players step it up at crunch time.

5. The inexperience of their freshman QB may be their weak link. But his arm looks better than Brett Favre's, he runs like Todd Gurley, and he has the self-confidence of someone who has never lost.

6. They've been fortunate with injuries - they've lost only one starter (in the defensive secondary) all year. So, they haven't suffered any attrition. It pays to be good and lucky.

Bottomline: If you bet on sports, you must be able to recognize "excellence that transcends" when you see it. The 2016 Alabama team is like the Pennsylvania RR, the German Army, the Roman Catholic Church. They might possibly lose, but you won't get rich by betting against them.