Kelly Criterion by Wizard
September 6th, 2010 at 1:33:21 PM
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Hallo to everybody!I am trying to understand how to figure it out the chances of winning in sports from Kelly's Criterion.In wizard's example #3, the horse has a 20% chance of winning.Does that mean that they are 5 horses in the race???Or you have to look in the horse's standings to see how many races has him won before in the season( let's say he participate in 10 races and won 2 ). Same question for soccer.If in soccer a team can win, lose or draw, does that mean the chances are always 1/3 (33,33% ) or you have to look on the standings to see how many games that team won during the season from the total games played.But, if you look in the standings, a team can play good at home and bad away, so...please let me know what are your opinions.thank you very much !
September 8th, 2010 at 1:13:37 PM
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That's the whole thing right there... what is the percentage chance of option X happening. If the chance you calculate is better than the book odds offered, you have a bet, and then the Kelly Criterion comes into play.
If I knew how to do it to any degree of success, I wouldn't tell you.
If I knew how to do it to any degree of success, I wouldn't tell you.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
September 8th, 2010 at 2:35:23 PM
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I that was just an assumption for the sake of example. If you don't know much about horse racing, I'd assume the market is effecient, and get the probability from that. That is how I did it when I had my Kentucky Derby promotion.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
