Where can I find the freequency of legnth of win/loss streaks in MLB?

I've been toying with some very small MLB Betting. I mean very small, <$10 mostly at Bodog (yes, I signed up via WoO) and so far my "system" hasn't been very scientiffic, but it has worked. I have basically just been betting against the wost team and one with a history of major collapses after the trade deadline. I start at $5. They lose I add $1 to the next bet for $6. Another loss add $1 more. I ain't gonna get rich but it is about the only way to stay interested in the game for me.

Well, the problem is when a team is so bad you get less than even odds. So my thought is when to "reverse" and pick *for* the underdog. Look for teams on a win/loss streak of 5 or more and bet the other side, who should be an underdog giving odds at this point.

So, my request is, does anyone know of any simple place to find how often (by raw numbers) or the probability of a streak goins x games in a row. I often see streaks of 5 but rarely of 10, so my guess is the sweet spot is somewhere in there.

Try retrosheet or baseball-reference.com

Quote: AZDuffman

I've been toying with some very small MLB Betting. I mean very small, <$10 mostly at Bodog (yes, I signed up via WoO) and so far my "system" hasn't been very scientiffic, but it has worked. I have basically just been betting against the wost team and one with a history of major collapses after the trade deadline. I start at $5. They lose I add $1 to the next bet for $6. Another loss add $1 more. I ain't gonna get rich but it is about the only way to stay interested in the game for me.

Well, the problem is when a team is so bad you get less than even odds. So my thought is when to "reverse" and pick *for* the underdog. Look for teams on a win/loss streak of 5 or more and bet the other side, who should be an underdog giving odds at this point.

So, my request is, does anyone know of any simple place to find how often (by raw numbers) or the probability of a streak goins x games in a row. I often see streaks of 5 but rarely of 10, so my guess is the sweet spot is somewhere in there.

There's a fundamental truth about sports betting: the people setting the line can see things like "streaks" as well as you can. The public will want to bet a team that is winning, and will shy away from a team that is losing. The books, anticipating this, will make it VERY expensive to bet the favorite. In fact, "betting with the streak" is quite possibly the worst strategy you can follow, because you will always be paying a heavy price.

There is no single probability number for length of streaks, because that number would depend on strength of opposition as well as strength of the team itself. The odds of a five-game winning streak, if all the matchups are even, are 31 to 1 against. HOWEVER, that does NOT mean that the odds of that team winning the sixth game are anything other than 1:1.

I don't have any quick statistics on that. However, recreational sports bettors love betting on strong teams, and hate lousy ones, regardless of the odds. In my very strong opinion, that creates value the other way. Just about every skilled sports bettor I know bets underdogs the majority of the time. I do virtually all the time -- usually the huge underdogs.

So I take it you dont bet on the sox to win?

Quote: Wizard

I don't have any quick statistics on that. However, recreational sports bettors love betting on strong teams, and hate lousy ones, regardless of the odds. In my very strong opinion, that creates value the other way. Just about every skilled sports bettor I know bets underdogs the majority of the time. I do virtually all the time -- usually the huge underdogs.

This is exactly what I was thinking. Say the Yankees have won 9 in a row. If the public is betting what is hot, I say consider betting the streak to end the other way. Now, the hard thing on sports is you cannot predict odds like you can on say a roulette or craps table. Then there is the fact that it is harder to have a winning streak than a losing streak. So bet the team who is playing the team on the hot streak. Even if you lose a few in a row, you might get a winner at +175 and come out way ahead.

As far as "systems" go I figure it is as good as anything.