Wynn Football Survivor Contest

I don't see anything in the rules that forbids betting the same team multiple weeks. Yes, it runs through the postseason. The rules say that each weeks games to choose from will be posted by 1:00 PM on Wednesday. So, yes, you have to physically show up every week. That is the point to all handicapping contests -- to get you through the door as often as possible.

About letting the field narrow itself, I agree, but only early in the contest. Let's say there are 10 people left, where I'm one of them, and it comes down to the Super Bowl, which has a 7-point favorite. 7-point favorites win about 71% of the time. The rules say if there is more than one survivor at the end, then they will split up the prize pool. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the other 9 players will pick the favorite. If I pick the favorite my EV is .71*100,000=$71,000. If I pick the underdog my EV is .29*$1,000,000=$290,000. Of course that is a simplified example, and you don't know what the other people will do. However, I think most players will incorrectly let the field worry about itself and go with big favorites every week. If I'm right, it may put me in position for a key swing.

Quote: Wizard

I don't see anything in the rules that forbids betting the same team multiple weeks. Yes, it runs through the postseason. The rules say that each weeks games to choose from will be posted by 1:00 PM on Wednesday. So, yes, you have to physically show up every week. That is the point to all handicapping contests -- to get you through the door as often as possible.

About letting the field narrow itself, I agree, but only early in the contest. Let's say there are 10 people left, where I'm one of them, and it comes down to the Super Bowl, which has a 7-point favorite. 7-point favorites win about 71% of the time. The rules say if there is more than one survivor at the end, then they will split up the prize pool. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the other 9 players will pick the favorite. If I pick the favorite my EV is .71*100,000=$71,000. If I pick the underdog my EV is .29*$1,000,000=$290,000. Of course that is a simplified example, and you don't know what the other people will do. However, I think most players will incorrectly let the field worry about itself and go with big favorites every week. If I'm right, it may put me in position for a key swing.

Playing Streak For The Cash on ESPN.com for the past couple of years has definitely made me think about this sort of strategy a lot recently. I agree with taking a favorite, but one that is lower down on the list. The argument about the field eliminating itself is okay if the spreads were based on a concrete, mathematical advantage held by the team with the highest point spread. No such advantage exists in reality, but the majority of pickers will go for the biggest spread. They will every time. Go down a couple of games to the middle of the pack and make a pick. The #1 favorite available WILL LOSE eventually. Do you want to just be swept away with the majority or stick around and be one of the few that bucked the top pick? I go under the radar, especially because we aren't talking about the difference between a "lock" and a "maybe". I'd give up 10% of my winning chance (let's say the top pick has a 70% chance of winning, and I pick a 60%) to roll the dice and eliminate a lot of the field.

EDIT: To directly address your idea of going after the huge dog late in the game, there's no reason to risk betting it. If you are sure the overwhelming majority is going for one game, take a different game. If you take the dog, you will be in great position if they win. But those people will be KOed whether you bet the dog or not. So bet a different game, and you'll have a better chance of surviving, but still will be in a position to reap the benefits of the dog's win.

I am from Buffalo and have been a seaseon ticket holder for 20 years, until now. Just bet against the Bills each week and when they are 0 - 16 collect your money. Send me a thank you for the advice.

Are the games with the biggest lines completely off limits? Or can you take the dog but not the favorite in those games? Like the Pats/Bills game in week 16. Could a player take the Bills (@ home) in that game?

Quote: rdw4potus

Are the games with the biggest lines completely off limits? Or can you take the dog but not the favorite in those games? Like the Pats/Bills game in week 16. Could a player take the Bills (@ home) in that game?

Great question but it looks like the Wiz said those "games" are eliminated, not the teams. It seems like they should be willing to let you take the dog, but maybe they think reducing the available teams to pick helps consolidate the game.

I help my friend with his survivor pool every year. I know the correct strategy for this version.

1. You should play it straight up for at least the first half of the season. That doesn't mean always picking the top unexcluded favorite, but something close in that range at least.
2. Hopefully during the middle of the season, let's say week 10, there is a week where there are 5 heavy favorites. Since four are excluded, most people are going to be on that 5th game. That's a week where you take a chance, and take one of the marginal favorites.

Weeks 5-10 will be where most are eliminated, because of the bye weeks, there will be less games.

Don't pick road teams ever. My friend has been eliminated the last 3 years picking his one and only road team of the year.

Hope it helps.

What are your thoughts on Division games? Most people say dont pick them, but I think that might be selection bias.

Buy the 10 entries that you are allowed.

In the first week pick 5 games and bet the favorite on the first 5 tickets.
Hedge your picks by picking the opponents on the last 5 tickets.

This guarantees you 5 tickets in week 2.

Pick 2 games in week 2 and hedge your bets like you did in week one.
You can't hedge the 5th ticket and hopefully you will win on this ticket.
This hedging will give you 2 guaranteed winners and possibly a 3rd win if you win on that 5th ticket.

In week 3 hedge bet one game. Hopefully you have a 3rd bet from week two.

This brings you to week 4. If you have 2 tickets, hedge bet 1 game.
This gets you to week 5.

In week 5-------You're on your own.

I got you to week 5!
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I was once involved in a horse racing contest. It ran for 100 days, the length of the racing meet. It was FREE to enter so I gave it a shot.

Two factors determined the winner of the contest. First you had to survive to the final day and most importantly you had to have the most winnings.

Every day the track would pick 3 races. You had to make a bet in each race. If your horse ran in the money you would advance to the next day. I would always bet my horse to place. This gave me 3 chances to win in every race. As long as I had one horse in the money I would advance.

I survived until there were about 50 contestants left and I finally lost.

One day I was explaining to someone how this contest worked. He looked at me and said 'THAT SOUNDS TOO MUCH LIKE WORK'. I looked back at him and said 'YOU KNOW - YOU'RE RIGHT!'

I never entered the contest again.

I was at the Red Rock today, having lunch with NicksGamingStuff. They have what looks like the exact same kind of contest. Separate ones for the NFL and College. Much like the Wynn 100% of entry fees are returned to the winner, and there is a guaranteed minimum, in this case $25,000. Entries are $25 each, and you get 5 for the price of 4. There is also a bonus if you win both the NFL and college contests.

Quote: Wizard

I was at the Red Rock today, having lunch with NicksGamingStuff. They have what looks like the exact same kind of contest. Separate ones for the NFL and College. Much like the Wynn 100% of entry fees are returned to the winner, and there is a guaranteed minimum, in this case $25,000. Entries are $25 each, and you get 5 for the price of 4. There is also a bonus if you win both the NFL and college contests.

Will they provide a truncated list of college games, or let you choose from dozens that play every Saturday? I imagine it's just a few that they'll let you pick, and I wonder if they'll just make them more competitive rather than adding some and then eliminating the ones with the highest spread.