Wynn Football Survivor Contest

I was at the Wynn yesterday and picked up the rules to their "Pro Football Survivor Contest." Here are the rules.

1. It costs $100 to enter. Max 10 entries per person.
2. 100% of entries to go to the winner, with $100,000 guaranteed prize pool.
3. Players pick one game a week, straight up (no point spread). You must win to advance.
4. The games with the biggest spreads will be excluded. The number of eliminated games depends on the week, as follows:

Week 1: 1
Weeks 2-4: 2
Weeks 5-7: 3
Weeks 8-10: 4
Weeks 11-13: 5
Weeks 14-15: 6
Week 16: 7
Week 17: 8
Post-season: None

There are some other rules about cancelled games, but since that rarely happens, I won't bother to list them.

I was wondering what strategy I would follow. In the early weeks I would pick strong favorites. However, if there were one huge favorite, I would probably not pick it, because I think most other players would, and it would not narrow the field much if they won.

Week 1, for example, does not have any huge point spreads. There are three seven point favorites. I would pick one of them, probably the Giants to beat the Panthers.

If the field were narrowed to 100 or so, and I were one of them, then I would try to swing the field. I would bet against the biggest favorite I could. Of course, I'd probably lose, but if I won, not only would I advance, but much of the competition would be eliminated. Then again, maybe the competition would be thinking the same way.

Comments? How would you play it?

Sounds like a good contest. But I admit I am (pleasntly) surprised that
Wynn has a 100 % payback on anything.

This is the same place that charged my wife $ 4.50 for a diet coke at the
bar she was playing a terrible pay schedule of video poker.

Oh well, it was fun to stay there, and they gave us a great deal on the
room. But if they look at how little we played there, I doubt we will
get any more good offers in the mail.

Slightly off-track:

Why don't they put in a few machines with decent VP pay schedules ? Most
of their guests probably won't have any idea to play those vs something
else, so they could still fleece most players and appeal to those few people
who are not totally math challenged.

I would play it almost exactly as you suggest, except that I don't think I'd ever cross the line and bet against a big favorite. I don't think you need that much risk to swing the field. I think it's better to pick a home favorite with a tight line (if possible) than to go farther and pick an underdog, let alone a big underdog.

I also like the Wiz's plan. It seems to me like your play
at the end depend on how many people are left AND how quickly
the pay-out drops down for 2nd, 3rd, 4th place etc ?

Quote: JohnnyQ

I also like the Wiz's plan. It seems to me like your play
at the end depend on how many people are left AND how quickly
the pay-out drops down for 2nd, 3rd, 4th place etc ?

Thanks. It is winner take all.

About the video poker, they do have 9-6 Jacks, but at the $5 denom and up. It used to be available on lots of machines at $1, but alas, no longer.

Are you allowed to pick the same team twice? In other "survivor" type tournaments, you are only allowed to pick a team once per season.

Assuming you can pick teams more than once, I would tend to shy away from betting underdogs away hoping for an upset, (especially since the games are straight up) and go with home favorites. Since there is no second place money, I would choose conservatively in hopes of lasting to week 17, then determine if an aggressive strategy is worth it (e.g., there are 1,000 entries still in the running).

Are players expected to return each week of the season to put in their selections? That alone will knock out a fair number of entrants. Also, with multiple entries allowed, you may want to consider putting in five entries so that you can shoot for a few upsets during the season without knocking yourself completely out.

So the contest runs through and including the Superbowl, or until there's only one man standing?

Since you have to be right every time to advance, I'm not sure I see the point in ever zagging. But if you did, I would think you would eliminate the most players if you took the biggest underdog available in week 1 (and were right); it could have the biggest spreads available in the duration of the contest.

Probably need to look at the schedule to see what the matchups are the first few weeks and anticipate the possible spreads, and maybe wait a week or two. But I'd zag as early as possible if I only had one entry.

It's not your job to eliminate the field. It's your job to make the best pick available every week to stay alive and let the field eliminate themselves.

If you want to zag then play twice. have 1 entry to the zigs and the other entry do the zags.

Quote: Chuck

So the contest runs through and including the Superbowl, or until there's only one man standing?

Since you have to be right every time to advance, I'm not sure I see the point in ever zagging. But if you did, I would think you would eliminate the most players if you took the biggest underdog available in week 1 (and were right); it could have the biggest spreads available in the duration of the contest.

Probably need to look at the schedule to see what the matchups are the first few weeks and anticipate the possible spreads, and maybe wait a week or two. But I'd zag as early as possible if I only had one entry.

Assuming you can take the same team week in and out, I'd let the crowd thin itself earlier on before making any moves... no need to try to be clever until you can see where the NFL itself is shaping up over the year.

As the number of 'good' games gets smaller as games get knocked out, then I think naturally you'll going to have to be lucky and will be taking different games from your opponents. Once there's only 10 match ups available, they'll be games that people will take both sides of.

I'd try and play more than one ticket down to that time though, so I could hedge myself.

Instead of betting against the biggest favorite, why not pick a team that's further down the spread list? Not everyone will chose the biggest possible favorite each time. It seems like your exposing yourself to too much risk by chosing the huge upset rather then chosing another, lesser favorite.

Edit: Also do you have to list out your choices in advance or do you get to submit the choices each week? Do you have to physically submit choices or can you enter the contest and then submit choices over the internet?