Nice Edge on Under the Total Play Tonight MLB

Dodgers/Rockies under 10.5. Starting pitchers: Bolsinger - ERA last 3 games - 0.90; Bettis 2.01 last 3 games. Yes, I know totals are more when Rockies are at home. Yes, I know they have scored well against the Dodgers. Rockies are 12 - 12 at home going under/over 10.5. That's not considering the starting pitchers. So I'll take it. I'm all over this bet. Like white on rice.

Quote: lilredrooster

Like white on rice.

Like white on brown rice?

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Quote: lilredrooster

kewlj: How could you possibly say what your EV is on a sports bet. If you assign a probability to the likelihood that your bet will win - that is just your opinion. It cannot be proven mathematically. EV is a mathematical term. You might have won a certain % in the past. But that in now way indicates the same will happen in the future. Sports betting is not like card counting blackjack where you can say with certainty what your EV is.

What are you talking about? When did I ever talk about measuring EV concerning sports betting? Sports betting for me is -EV. I wish it wasn't but it is. I do a very small amount of sports betting as entertainment, usually during football season.

If you are referring to my signature, I am talking about measuring EV as far s blackjack play, which is what I do for a living.

13 runs scored, with 3 runs scored in the bottom of the ninth, I guess rice is all you are going to be eating for awhile:(

in lilredrooster's defense, it could have been a good bet. or maybe it was a sucker bet. Can't really know from one game. All I know is that it's rare for the bookmakers to get something very wrong, so I never get too enthusiastic over any one line.

My comment was more about the fickle nature of sports betting. I like following steeldco and one day he is the "I'm the King of the World!" and the next day he realizes he is on the Titanic.

Thought it was a great bet but it lost. Lately I've been tracking o/u and it is winning if you bet the opposite of where it looks like you have an edge. i.e.: if starting pitchers have a terrible ERA the last 3 games be the under. If they have a great ERA the last 3 bet the over. As long as the total is set in the 7 - 9 range. It's probably just been a random result - not a true edge. Baseball is really tough to find an edge. I will keep tracking and let you know. I'm all over it. Like red on a cherry.