Playoff thoughts
January 8th, 2014 at 2:37:51 PM
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This week there will be rain in seattle. The over/under has fallen 2 points down to 46.
Its an interesting play in that last time in dry weather saints were held to single digits. And we could expect alot of run as long passes tend to fall short in dense humid air with rain pelting down on the ball.
Both teams excel against the pass in defense,
However in my opinion, that pass defense effectiveness is reduced in wet weather. Short passes can turn into long gains on a slippery field.
Seatle has given up points against worse teams like jacksonville. And arizona ran at will against seattle.
However with that being said, I think the number is high because new orleans is in the game, and that team brings out the over bettors.
Right now, I think 46 is a number I will go under with
New England---is 7-7 in its last 14 playoff games...Do they deserve to be 7 point faves? I think the mystique of Belichik and the career of Brady jacks up this number a little. I dont think its a good value for the fave. Weather will be unusually mild, possible rain. Luck can handle that.Can brady stay upright...having the most sacks this year of his career.
Denver- SD--- Manning is just another QB in the playoffs...although he is the best regular season QB around.
I wouldnt be surprised if SD covers, but I can also see denver with a healthier offense than the last meeting...winnig double digits....I am passing on this one
SF/Carolina.......started off seeing SF as -2 earlier...now it seems to be down to a pick-em
I am gonna go with the angle that a team that has been to the playoffs before has an advantage over a team who hasnt been..if they are generally equal in other areas.
But being the playoffs and how close things are...this week I am gonna go 7 point teasers seattle under, Indy. SF.
Its an interesting play in that last time in dry weather saints were held to single digits. And we could expect alot of run as long passes tend to fall short in dense humid air with rain pelting down on the ball.
Both teams excel against the pass in defense,
However in my opinion, that pass defense effectiveness is reduced in wet weather. Short passes can turn into long gains on a slippery field.
Seatle has given up points against worse teams like jacksonville. And arizona ran at will against seattle.
However with that being said, I think the number is high because new orleans is in the game, and that team brings out the over bettors.
Right now, I think 46 is a number I will go under with
New England---is 7-7 in its last 14 playoff games...Do they deserve to be 7 point faves? I think the mystique of Belichik and the career of Brady jacks up this number a little. I dont think its a good value for the fave. Weather will be unusually mild, possible rain. Luck can handle that.Can brady stay upright...having the most sacks this year of his career.
Denver- SD--- Manning is just another QB in the playoffs...although he is the best regular season QB around.
I wouldnt be surprised if SD covers, but I can also see denver with a healthier offense than the last meeting...winnig double digits....I am passing on this one
SF/Carolina.......started off seeing SF as -2 earlier...now it seems to be down to a pick-em
I am gonna go with the angle that a team that has been to the playoffs before has an advantage over a team who hasnt been..if they are generally equal in other areas.
But being the playoffs and how close things are...this week I am gonna go 7 point teasers seattle under, Indy. SF.
January 9th, 2014 at 5:32:29 PM
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Quote: LarryS
SF/Carolina.......started off seeing SF as -2 earlier...now it seems to be down to a pick-em
I am gonna go with the angle that a team that has been to the playoffs before has an advantage over a team who hasnt been..if they are generally equal in other areas.
The Carolina quarterback will make mistakes. He's lost some of his excitement and confidence with the Auburn loss I'm sure. In addition, first time in the playoffs always makes a young quarterback nervous. Look for some interceptions and bad decisions, throwing too quickly etc.. The line movement is interesting as I would have thought the "smart" money would have gone early on the 49ers. Going to look that up now. Good luck.
January 12th, 2014 at 6:27:35 PM
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Quote: NokTangThe Carolina quarterback will make mistakes. He's lost some of his excitement and confidence with the Auburn loss I'm sure. In addition, first time in the playoffs always makes a young quarterback nervous. Look for some interceptions and bad decisions, throwing too quickly etc.. The line movement is interesting as I would have thought the "smart" money would have gone early on the 49ers. Going to look that up now. Good luck.
THE GAME WAS TOO BIG FOR THEIR qb AND THE ENTIRE TEAM.
carolina behaved like the rookie team I expected.
they cracked by taking silly 15 yard penalties all 3 of which were significant and helped them lose.
The shot of Newton on the sideline when SF went up by 13 was classic. He had a disgusted look on his face as if to say "what do you expect me to do now"
more mature QBs after the opposing FG gets a look of determination on their and face put their helmet on..and goes to work./newton was sulking
January 12th, 2014 at 10:13:13 PM
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We've got the 4 teams many predicted we would have. Two great quarterbacks going at it in the AFC, and two great defenses going at it in the NFC.
Success in betting some of these games thus far has been all about timing. Did you get Denver/SD at 9 or 7, did you get Seattle/New Orleans at 8 or 10.. Last week IND/KC went from ind -2.5 all the way to KC -1.5...
Side note, I felt the officiating was AWFUL in the Carolina SF game, mostly in favor of Carolina. I'm glad it didn't cause them to win.
No matter who wins next week I will be wagering on one Super Bowl prop for sure....
YES there will be overtime. Statistically it's overdue, and if I get high enough odds I feel I'll have , as the Wizard says... A good bet. Which is all that matters.
Success in betting some of these games thus far has been all about timing. Did you get Denver/SD at 9 or 7, did you get Seattle/New Orleans at 8 or 10.. Last week IND/KC went from ind -2.5 all the way to KC -1.5...
Side note, I felt the officiating was AWFUL in the Carolina SF game, mostly in favor of Carolina. I'm glad it didn't cause them to win.
No matter who wins next week I will be wagering on one Super Bowl prop for sure....
YES there will be overtime. Statistically it's overdue, and if I get high enough odds I feel I'll have , as the Wizard says... A good bet. Which is all that matters.
