gravity89
gravity89
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Joined: Mar 6, 2013
December 6th, 2013 at 3:46:07 AM permalink
Ok, so the Wizard created a page showing the EV of NFL Teasers following the basic strategy first published by Stanford Wong. He used the best odds available in Vegas, but since I do not live anywhere near Nevada, I was wondering if someone could help me come up with the EV based on the best available odds from online sportsbooks (which I have determined in the case of teasers to be 5dimes)

So, here's their payout chart for NFL 6pt teasers (ties reduce):
2 out of 2 pays -110
3 out of 3 pays +165
4 out of 4 pays +265
5 out of 5 pays +410
6 out of 6 pays +610
7 out of 7 pays +890
8 out of 8 pays +1275
9 out of 9 pays +1825
10 out of 10 pays +2600
11 out of 11 pays +3700
12 out of 12 pays +5200
13 out of 13 pays +7400
14 out of 14 pays +10500
15 out of 15 pays +15000

Any value to be found here? An interesting feature that 5dimes offers is the ability to come leave open slots on teaser cards, so if there aren't enough Wong plays in a given week, you can just add to it the next week and so forth. What do you guys think?
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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Joined: May 21, 2013
December 6th, 2013 at 12:46:14 PM permalink
Quote: gravity89

Ok, so the Wizard created a page showing the EV of NFL Teasers following the basic strategy first published by Stanford Wong. He used the best odds available in Vegas, but since I do not live anywhere near Nevada, I was wondering if someone could help me come up with the EV based on the best available odds from online sportsbooks (which I have determined in the case of teasers to be 5dimes)

So, here's their payout chart for NFL 6pt teasers (ties reduce):
2 out of 2 pays -110
3 out of 3 pays +165
4 out of 4 pays +265
5 out of 5 pays +410
6 out of 6 pays +610
7 out of 7 pays +890
8 out of 8 pays +1275
9 out of 9 pays +1825
10 out of 10 pays +2600
11 out of 11 pays +3700
12 out of 12 pays +5200
13 out of 13 pays +7400
14 out of 14 pays +10500
15 out of 15 pays +15000

Any value to be found here? An interesting feature that 5dimes offers is the ability to come leave open slots on teaser cards, so if there aren't enough Wong plays in a given week, you can just add to it the next week and so forth. What do you guys think?



I don't claim to be an informed parlay player, but a multi-week parlay seems like a really good opportunity. What would be the downside? Worse odds or payoffs offered than a single-week?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze
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December 6th, 2013 at 1:05:57 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I don't claim to be an informed parlay player, but a multi-week parlay seems like a really good opportunity. What would be the downside? Worse odds or payoffs offered than a single-week?



The downside is if you win too much from an offshore shop, they just don't pay you. It happens.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
gravity89
gravity89
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Joined: Mar 6, 2013
December 6th, 2013 at 7:50:29 PM permalink
so....
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 6th, 2013 at 7:56:48 PM permalink
Quote: KeyserSoze

The downside is if you win too much from an offshore shop, they just don't pay you. It happens.

reputation and risk VS rewards is the key when betting online. Obviously if you have a choice a brick and and mortar casino is a better choice. Avoiding Online or off offshore casinos and sports books could cost an AP 10's of thousands even hundreds.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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