Teasers, math, reasoning,question
November 8th, 2013 at 7:43:57 AM
permalink
I am not a genious at math, so I ask this from a math perspective AND from a reality of betting perspective.
First, I do know that teasers are not a great betting value, but that being said..here it goes.
6 pt teasers for basketball(BB) ABD FOOTBALL(fb) pay about the same. In fact william hill allows you to mix them in a ticket.
on the face of it, 6 pts seems of greater significance in football.(lets say for argument the ave socre in FB is 45 total, and pro BB is 195 total
so 6/195 seems less signifcant as 6/45.
But from a reasoning angle, no one in basketball scores zero points, whereas in FB it happens. In FB all the points are essential and meaningfull. Whereas in Pro BB lets say everyone scores 75 pts,(150 total) and the 6 pt tease comes into play for the last 45 pts. Making the 6 pts weighted more equally to football.
Am I analyzing that correctly?
SecondLY, IN fb AND bb......all things being equal...is it a beter value to apply a 6 or 7 or 10 pt teaser to 2 lower scoring teams?
For example isnt a 6 pt total or side teaser of better value on FB point total of 40 rather than 49.(I am talking about all things being equal since I realize there may be value in the "49" bet if you feel the man was off ...based on research). Or in BB 6 points more valuable in a game total of 180 vs 210.(again all things being equal)
First, I do know that teasers are not a great betting value, but that being said..here it goes.
6 pt teasers for basketball(BB) ABD FOOTBALL(fb) pay about the same. In fact william hill allows you to mix them in a ticket.
on the face of it, 6 pts seems of greater significance in football.(lets say for argument the ave socre in FB is 45 total, and pro BB is 195 total
so 6/195 seems less signifcant as 6/45.
But from a reasoning angle, no one in basketball scores zero points, whereas in FB it happens. In FB all the points are essential and meaningfull. Whereas in Pro BB lets say everyone scores 75 pts,(150 total) and the 6 pt tease comes into play for the last 45 pts. Making the 6 pts weighted more equally to football.
Am I analyzing that correctly?
SecondLY, IN fb AND bb......all things being equal...is it a beter value to apply a 6 or 7 or 10 pt teaser to 2 lower scoring teams?
For example isnt a 6 pt total or side teaser of better value on FB point total of 40 rather than 49.(I am talking about all things being equal since I realize there may be value in the "49" bet if you feel the man was off ...based on research). Or in BB 6 points more valuable in a game total of 180 vs 210.(again all things being equal)
November 8th, 2013 at 8:58:30 AM
permalink
Who among us can call themselves a "genious"? I think no one. Your approach may need adjustment. Look at the actual results over many games, either football or basketball and then average this results. If you see the average result falls to one side or the other by a significant amount then place a bet.Quote: LarrySI am not a genious
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 8th, 2013 at 9:19:09 AM
permalink
my approach to betting sports is not even close to the hypothetical I posed.
However I would welcome any comment based on experience, anecdotal, mathmatical, or any reasoned commentary on the validity or lack of validity.
However I would welcome any comment based on experience, anecdotal, mathmatical, or any reasoned commentary on the validity or lack of validity.
November 8th, 2013 at 11:36:39 AM
permalink
LarryS- your way of thinking makes a lot of sense to me. But then again, what the hell do I know?
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
