NFL Spread Accuracy

I was so impressed by your report atreally great in depth analysis.
What I am looking for, and found in the report is historically how accurate spread maker have been at predicting the final outcome. In other words how many times were they exactly right? I see that 2.76% over 25 years is the answer provided. To take it a step further, how often is the spreadmaker off by 1, 2 and 3 points?
Thanks in advance for any insights and answers.

Quote: RealScorz

I was so impressed by your report at https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ really great in depth analysis.
What I am looking for, and found in the report is historically how accurate spread maker have been at predicting the final outcome. In other words how many times were they exactly right? I see that 2.76% over 25 years is the answer provided. To take it a step further, how often is the spreadmaker off by 1, 2 and 3 points?
Thanks in advance for any insights and answers.

Of interest would be is how often is it over or under the spread, which would tell you if the line was right in the middle. Though the closeness would also help, and if there is a link between the spread number and the accuracy (do -10 games tend be more or less accurate than -1.5 games, for example?).

Hmmm, I'd probably have to go dig for the raw data on this.

Actually, the game we have created doesn't care which way you are wrong, winning or losing. Just how far off of a perfect zero. Does that make sense? So if I pick the Giants to beat the Redskins by 7 and they win by 10, my score would be three (I was wrong by 3), but if the result was the Giants winning by 4 I would also get a 3. It the Redskins won by 3 I would get a 10. Hope that is helpful.

Don't forget they don't want to be "right.". A spreadmaker who is right means a push and no money for the bookie.


Popularity of teams enters into some calculations. If more packers fans bet their team the spread will reflect that so action is even.

Excellent point. Thank you!