mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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April 15th, 2017 at 9:22:33 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Thank you. Sounds about right to me.

still using Excel
(binomial probability distribution)
0.2838877
is the probability of showing at least a profit after 150 bets.
at least 10 unit profit is about
0.0824535
or about 1 in 12
Quote: bazooooka

How many bets (roughly) till one would concludes that "chance" is down to near 1% assuming the same win percentage?

good question
I just plugged in a few numbers instead of calculating (using ev and sd)
I get about 2400 bets for 1 in 105
of showing a profit

but remember
1 in100 is still a large value to some
and some R luckier than others

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 16th, 2017 at 4:43:26 PM permalink
Sally,

I agree that luck can never be ruled out. I for one would back someone with a 1000+ picks at 57% percent. That kind of luck seems worthy of bet tailing.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 16th, 2017 at 4:47:18 PM permalink
1 in 55 works for me? I hope my luck continues. The fact that only 1 in 30 will barely have any kind of profit left shows how hard it is to beat the vig since most are just flipping coins with their picks or worse.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 8th, 2017 at 5:22:49 PM permalink
Sally,

I'm 500 bets in and still hitting at 55%; if this holds until 1000 or even 2000 bets what's odds of "luck" if one can hit 55% ATS that long?
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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May 8th, 2017 at 6:18:00 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Sally,

I'm 500 bets in and still hitting at 55%; if this holds until 1000 or even 2000 bets what's odds of "luck" if one can hit 55% ATS that long?



What you are really asking is: given a record of 55% over "n" trials what is the "statistical confidence" that I am at least a 51% player -or a 53% player -or a 55% player?

I would encourage the respondents to quote the statistical confidence level.

For some reason, everyone in this dang forum talks about 3-sigma or 5-sigma -as if you don't have considerable confidence in something when you are only at 1.5 sigma. Frankly, if you have a statistical confidence of, say, 80%, then you are probably more confident of that fact that most things in your life.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 8th, 2017 at 6:47:21 PM permalink
Gordon,

I agree. I assume 50/50 is baseline so I'd like to see how often someone can stay above that for 1000+ picks? And also assuming an edge how rare would it be to be below 50% after 1000+ picks. I imagine 1000+ picks would weed out skill vs luck especially if one was still at a 55% clip. But maybe not?
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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May 10th, 2017 at 5:03:57 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Sally,

I'm 500 bets in and still hitting at 55%; if this holds until 1000 or even 2000 bets what's odds of "luck" if one can hit 55% ATS that long?



If you are beating closing lines and the take-back the majority of the time I would think we could take "luck" out of the equation in only 500 trials. If you are not, then we should still be looking for a larger sample size, unless there is some other reason to believe the 55% is a true reflection. What happened in the past is virtually meaningless compared to what you expect will happen going forward.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 10th, 2017 at 6:40:34 AM permalink
I think the idea would be interesting betting $100, then $200, then $300, $100 up at a time until you get to $1000, betting whether you win or lose. $5500 total bets. Naturally you would rather win the last 4 over the first four, not lose them all. I can see doing this sequence but months between bets if not a year or more just waiting for a bet you think is right.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 10th, 2017 at 9:48:21 PM permalink
Bet Bouncing can ruin even good systems. I'm mainly a flat unit guys. Guys who are up but pick under 50% are just lucky. We all have those friends who goes big in playoffs etc to make up for a bad season. It works till it doesn't. Also guys that can beat the spread over 1000s of picks can still bust if they bet too big and then have a bad run of 11 out of 15 losers etc. It happens =(
RyanWolf
RyanWolf
Joined: Jul 18, 2017
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July 18th, 2017 at 6:23:53 AM permalink
Let's say I've got 5% edge. Betting on 1.3 odds (-333). Would would be calculations for 2,3 and -2,-3 SD please? Im struggling to do it myself. Thanks.

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