mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 1995
April 15th, 2017 at 9:22:33 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Thank you. Sounds about right to me.

still using Excel
(binomial probability distribution)
0.2838877
is the probability of showing at least a profit after 150 bets.
at least 10 unit profit is about
0.0824535
Quote: bazooooka

How many bets (roughly) till one would concludes that "chance" is down to near 1% assuming the same win percentage?

good question
I just plugged in a few numbers instead of calculating (using ev and sd)
I get about 2400 bets for 1 in 105
of showing a profit

but remember
1 in100 is still a large value to some
and some R luckier than others

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
• Posts: 182
April 16th, 2017 at 4:43:26 PM permalink
Sally,

I agree that luck can never be ruled out. I for one would back someone with a 1000+ picks at 57% percent. That kind of luck seems worthy of bet tailing.
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
• Posts: 182
April 16th, 2017 at 4:47:18 PM permalink
1 in 55 works for me? I hope my luck continues. The fact that only 1 in 30 will barely have any kind of profit left shows how hard it is to beat the vig since most are just flipping coins with their picks or worse.
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
• Posts: 182
May 8th, 2017 at 5:22:49 PM permalink
Sally,

I'm 500 bets in and still hitting at 55%; if this holds until 1000 or even 2000 bets what's odds of "luck" if one can hit 55% ATS that long?
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 488
May 8th, 2017 at 6:18:00 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Sally,

I'm 500 bets in and still hitting at 55%; if this holds until 1000 or even 2000 bets what's odds of "luck" if one can hit 55% ATS that long?

What you are really asking is: given a record of 55% over "n" trials what is the "statistical confidence" that I am at least a 51% player -or a 53% player -or a 55% player?

I would encourage the respondents to quote the statistical confidence level.

For some reason, everyone in this dang forum talks about 3-sigma or 5-sigma -as if you don't have considerable confidence in something when you are only at 1.5 sigma. Frankly, if you have a statistical confidence of, say, 80%, then you are probably more confident of that fact that most things in your life.
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
• Posts: 182
May 8th, 2017 at 6:47:21 PM permalink
Gordon,

I agree. I assume 50/50 is baseline so I'd like to see how often someone can stay above that for 1000+ picks? And also assuming an edge how rare would it be to be below 50% after 1000+ picks. I imagine 1000+ picks would weed out skill vs luck especially if one was still at a 55% clip. But maybe not?
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
• Posts: 913
May 10th, 2017 at 5:03:57 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Sally,

I'm 500 bets in and still hitting at 55%; if this holds until 1000 or even 2000 bets what's odds of "luck" if one can hit 55% ATS that long?

If you are beating closing lines and the take-back the majority of the time I would think we could take "luck" out of the equation in only 500 trials. If you are not, then we should still be looking for a larger sample size, unless there is some other reason to believe the 55% is a true reflection. What happened in the past is virtually meaningless compared to what you expect will happen going forward.
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 4704
May 10th, 2017 at 6:40:34 AM permalink
I think the idea would be interesting betting \$100, then \$200, then \$300, \$100 up at a time until you get to \$1000, betting whether you win or lose. \$5500 total bets. Naturally you would rather win the last 4 over the first four, not lose them all. I can see doing this sequence but months between bets if not a year or more just waiting for a bet you think is right.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016