mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 1962
April 15th, 2017 at 9:22:33 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Thank you. Sounds about right to me.

still using Excel
(binomial probability distribution)
0.2838877
is the probability of showing at least a profit after 150 bets.
at least 10 unit profit is about
0.0824535
or about 1 in 12
Quote: bazooooka

How many bets (roughly) till one would concludes that "chance" is down to near 1% assuming the same win percentage?

good question
I just plugged in a few numbers instead of calculating (using ev and sd)
I get about 2400 bets for 1 in 105
of showing a profit

but remember
1 in100 is still a large value to some
and some R luckier than others

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 44
April 16th, 2017 at 4:43:26 PM permalink
Sally,

I agree that luck can never be ruled out. I for one would back someone with a 1000+ picks at 57% percent. That kind of luck seems worthy of bet tailing.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 44
April 16th, 2017 at 4:47:18 PM permalink
1 in 55 works for me? I hope my luck continues. The fact that only 1 in 30 will barely have any kind of profit left shows how hard it is to beat the vig since most are just flipping coins with their picks or worse.

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