A "True" Indicator of Slot Machine Payback????

Slot machine payback (or return) is one the last great mysteries in the casino. I have stumbled across various websites that have listed payback percentages on certain machines but there really is not a valid mathematical way of validating these results. But now, I have come across one. I live in the midwest and the Indiana Gaming Commission releases gaming data for each casino. Included are return percentages for most levels (penny thru $$$) of slot machines. What is more impressive is the consistancy which these percentages run - for example the largest casino in Indiana consistantly has a payback of slightly less than 88% for their penny slots for the past year. If one were to look at other denominations, one would see a similar trend. Can there be a better indicator than this? Does the Nevada Gaming Commission provide this type of data as well?

By the way, the theoretical payback for many of the games I have found are in the 92% range. That is why I stated the data (with thousands upon thosands of bets monthly) would provide a more realistic payback percentage than the theoretical percentage.

Quote: 13Doc13

By the way, the theoretical payback for many of the games I have found are in the 92% range. That is why I stated the data (with thousands upon thosands of bets monthly) would provide a more realistic payback percentage than the theoretical percentage.

I understood your first post, but not this one. If you know the theoretical percentage, why are you still looking around. That's all the info you need, isn't it. The point of the exercise of looking at gaming commission data is to approximate the theoretical return percentage in the absense of that actual information.

Quote: 13Doc13

By the way, the theoretical payback for many of the games I have found are in the 92% range. That is why I stated the data (with thousands upon thosands of bets monthly) would provide a more realistic payback percentage than the theoretical percentage.

Keep in mind that a single "game" can have many different versions of it to satisfy the needs of various casinos. For example, let's say Cleopatra, could have versions that return 95%, 92%, 90%, and 88%. Casinos in Vegas might use the lower-returning versions for lower denominations and the higher-returning versions for higher-stakes machines. Tribal casinos with little or no competition may use the lowest-paying version regardless of denomination.

That's all hypothetical, but I wouldn't trust any web site that says "this game returns this much" because there are more than likely multiple configurations of the game that all have a different return (unless of course you are logged in to the game manufacturer's web site and obtained the info directly from them).

The "theoretical" percentage posted can not be justified – it was listed on a specific machine on a website offering info about slots in general. And as you can see, the theoretical payback provided was much greater than the actual payback. Since this is a slot machine, poor play can not be taken into account to skew the results. I guess my point is no matter WHAT the theoretical payback may be, the actual results given over time is a much better indicator. Thanks for your comments…….

Quote: 13Doc13

The "theoretical" percentage posted can not be justified – it was listed on a specific machine on a website offering info about slots in general. And as you can see, the theoretical payback provided was much greater than the actual payback. Since this is a slot machine, poor play can not be taken into account to skew the results. I guess my point is no matter WHAT the theoretical payback may be, the actual results given over time is a much better indicator. Thanks for your comments…….

Would you care to share the URL of this web page?

Also, the actual results over time (if I'm understanding your source correctly) is an average across all games (and possibly all denominations, though sometimes they are broken down by denomination). So if one game returns 85% but gets played more than the one that returns 92% then the average will fall around 88%, for example.

This is true and would explain the differences in overall payouts for a certain denomination from one casino to another (of course taking into account that each casino has a comparable number of machines in that particular denomination). But once again, is this type of data available for Las Vegas area casinos?

Sure .... the website is http://dunes.cincinnati.com/data/gaming/ and provides data for all Indiana based casinos.

The data on the slot machines are broken down by denomination (penny, nickel, $1. ...) for all the casinos in my area. And I do agree that the overall payback percentage represents all the games for that denomination and will not give one insight on the payback percentage for a particular game. Most of the action on slot machines come from popular themes or machines that pay off better than others so I wouldn't expect too wide of a range from machine to machine.

If a casino is providing numbers to a state gaming commission and those numbers are CONSISTANTLY in the same range over time, then one can have a fairly good idea what to expect when they play in that certain casino.

Thanks for the link to that website. My favorite website for checking gaming info is the New Jersey Gaming Enforcement http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/mgrtaxreturns.html. They are very detailed with their statistics. For example, you can see that Showboat consistently pays back the least amount in slots every month. Lesson? Don't play at Showboat.

I don't know if you can ever really figure a slot machine payback percentage without the PAR sheets. Best to stay away from slots and play video poker, where you can always calculate the exact return.

Quote: 13Doc13

Slot machine payback (or return) is one the last great mysteries in the casino.

Not really. The great mystery is why people play them at all.

Some of the discussion relates to "life of the machine" payouts. This is sort of similar to the airplane wing of infinite length. Its great for math calculations but kinda rough on the poor guy who has to wash it or park it in a hangar.

We know that some not-quite-perfect RNG is the start point and that some PAR strips intervene and so there is this "theoretical payout" rate and that there is some point in time wherein actual and theoretical will match but until that point in time they only approximate. Yet such approximations are considered "good enough for government work".

We don't know which chips the casino has but we know Nevada is the biggest market and all slots will meet Nevada requirements so even in a tribal casino is likely to have RNGs suitable for use in Nevada.

So if Lady Variance delivered a bit less than optimal expectations on one day ... those results are but a fluke, as is the slot machine paying off a jackpot.