Slot Machine challenges (similar to betting system challenges)

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

Anyone claiming that higher-paying slot machines are found in certain places at the casino (e.g., near the change booths, near the coffee shop, etc.) is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You pick what you think is a high-paying machine for you to play and what you think is a low-playing machine for me to play, at a Vegas casino.
* Each of us will then play 2000 spins and we'll see who's ahead of the other at the end.
* I'll wager my $1000 against your $1200 that you will not be ahead of me at the end.
* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), the same coinage (e.g., 2- or 3-coin game), the same flavor (physical or video reels), same manufacturer.
* The machine you pick for me must be a standard non-progressive machine, and not a novelty machine (like one of the huge machines that's three times larger than a regular machine).
* Each of us banks our own spins.

Assume the challenger is a high roller who likes to play $100 slots. Are you willing to put $200k coin-in, and lose at least $8k (assuming 96% return) to win only $1,200, and risk losing another $1,000 on what amounts to basically a coin flip? A player at this level can easily absorb the loss. Could you?

Quote: Slot Challenge #2

Anyone claiming to be able to beat slot machines is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You will play at least 3000 spins across any number of slot machines. You get to pick which machines to play and how you want to play them, using your own special techniques.
* If you are ahead at the end I will pay you $1000. If you are behind you will pay me $1000.
* You bank your spins yourself.
* Play must be completed in a no more than 3 sessions lasting no longer than eight hours total at any single Vegas casino.
* You can choose any number of spins above 3000, as long as you choose the number before you start playing.
* If you can truly beat slot machines this should be an easy win for you.

I am not familiar with common slot ""systems", but wouldn't a component of a winning system be to stop losses and bank winnings? Forcing a challenger to play 3,000 spins creates an artificial hurdle that I don't think you would encounter in a "serious" (cough, cough, sorry, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit) slot system player. Nevertheless, here is how I would do it:
-- Start with $1 slots. If ever up $30, stop.
-- Move to penny slot, play one cent a spin for the balance of the 3,000 spin minimum.
How often would a $1 slot player be up $30? I am totally guessing, but maybe a 50% chance in the first 100 spins? The bottom line is that having the option to switch to penny a spin "econo-mode" at anytime, negates the 3,000 spin minimum.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

...* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), ....

Assume the challenger is a high roller who likes to play $100 slots. Are you willing to put $200k coin-in, and lose at least $8k (assuming 96% return) to win only $1,200, and risk losing another $1,000 on what amounts to basically a coin flip? A player at this level can easily absorb the loss. Could you?

It appears he has that part covered.

Quote: Doc

Quote: Ayecarumba

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

...* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), ....

Assume the challenger is a high roller who likes to play $100 slots. Are you willing to put $200k coin-in, and lose at least $8k (assuming 96% return) to win only $1,200, and risk losing another $1,000 on what amounts to basically a coin flip? A player at this level can easily absorb the loss. Could you?

It appears he has that part covered.

Thanks for pointing that out Doc. Still, the expected loss just running challenge #1, even at a dollar max, needs to be considered. I would assume anyone who takes it up, will play dollar slots due to the generally higher expected return. I would put Bluejay on Megabucks, with its lousy 89% expected return. Of his $6,000 through, he would be expected to lose $660. All for a chance to win $1000 on a coin flip?

Megabucks is a progressive. Besides, both machines have to be the same "type" (unless I misunderstand the rules about same manufacturer).

I would suggest Mr Bluejay limits the total coin if he wants to safe guard himself (I assume there's $1 machines that have multiple lines and multi-coin per line that could make a $1 machine over $100 per spin = $200,000 coin in).

I am surprised that the hypothesis here seems to be that all machines in a casino of the same base type have the same payout.

Quote: thecesspit

I am surprised that the hypothesis here seems to be that all machines in a casino of the same base type have the same payout.

I don't think it is this at all. He is wagering $1000 against $1200. Because of the variance, the player would need to find a machine that is about 2% higher in order to have a break even bet. The player can gain an advantage if player finds machines with the lowest possible variance and actually identify machines with a difference in payback.

If the machines were the same return, then the player has a 50% chance of winning $1000 and a 50% chance of losing $1200. That's an expected loss of $100. It sounds like a pretty fair gamble and I'd like to see someone try... but, it wouldn't prove the player right or wrong because of the limited number of games.

I would refine the rules of the challenges to say that both machines must not just be the same type as in mechanical reels vs. virtual reels, but the same exact machines, because with video slots there are secondary bonus games to consider and not all bonus games are the same; some allow the player to make choices while others simply award so many free spins.

I would also specify that both players must wager the same amount on every spin because a lot of slot players have the superstition that varying the coin-in can have an effect on the outcome (I call it the "Ocean's Eleven Syndrome"). Plus, when you get into multi-line machines where you can play anywhere between 5 cents and $5 per spin, it might make a difference over the course of 2,000 or 3,000 spins if one person is betting the minimum and one is betting the maximum. For mechanical reel machines, I would specify that max coin-in be wagered every time.

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies.

After a lot of thought, and considering the comments, I've decided to just retire Slot Challenge #1. It's just a pain to try to thwart all the exploits, and no short-term test could really prove much of anything anyway.

So let's focus on Challenge #2, which is to try to disprove any generic "I can win at slots" system that's being sold by hucksters. If you were constructing this challenge from scratch, how would you design it?

(bump)

Agree that challenge 2 is beatable if after an early win you can lower your bet. Even if you stipulate the same machine, if one can switch from 5 coins to 1 coin after an early win the switch will lower the variance and make a small win more likely. As far as challenge 1, I would give yourself either better odds (his 2k versus your 1k), or even odds (your 1lk versus his 1k) with him having to have beaten you by some predetermined amount since it is only fair since he is playing the 'hot' machines. Say for 3000 spins on a dollar machine he has to be up $150 more than you...

Okay, here's where we're at. Again, I've killed the challenge about whether higher-paying machines are located in certain areas of the casino floor, because it's too hard to write a set of rules which both makes the point and at the same time counters all the loopholes for exploits. So I'm focusing only on the challenge about whether anyone has a winning betting system. I've upped the challenge payout to $5000, and revised the rules according to the feedback I've gotten so far. Here's what I've got:

Quote: Bluejay's $5000 slot machine challenge

Game selection. You pick which slot machines to play and how you want to play them, using your own special techniques, at any single casino in Las Vegas or Atlantic City.
Number of spins. The minimum number of spins is 5000 times the ratio of your largest wager to your smallest wager. For example, if you always play $0.75 at a time, then the minimum number if spins is 5000. If you wager between $0.50 and $3.00, then the minimum number of spins is 6 x 5000 = 30,000 spins. You can choose any number of spins above the minimum number, as long as you choose that number before you start playing.
You bank your spins yourself.
Time Limit. Play must be completed within 120 hours (including any time spent machine-scouting or machine-hopping).
Winning. If you have made at least $15 per hour by the end, I will pay you $5000. If you failed then you will pay me $5000.

Thoughts?