Slot Machine challenges (similar to betting system challenges)

Knowledgeable members of these forums greatly helped me tweak my betting system challenge a while back. So now I'm finally getting around to asking for feedback on my slot machine challenges. Basically, the main question I'd like to answer is, Are the challenges sufficiently resistant to exploits, and if not, how should I alter them?

Here's the current wording:

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

Anyone claiming that higher-paying slot machines are found in certain places at the casino (e.g., near the change booths, near the coffee shop, etc.) is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You pick what you think is a high-paying machine for you to play and what you think is a low-playing machine for me to play, at a Vegas casino.
* Each of us will then play 2000 spins and we'll see who's ahead of the other at the end.
* I'll wager my $1000 against your $1200 that you will not be ahead of me at the end.
* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), the same coinage (e.g., 2- or 3-coin game), the same flavor (physical or video reels), same manufacturer.
* The machine you pick for me must be a standard non-progressive machine, and not a novelty machine (like one of the huge machines that's three times larger than a regular machine).
* Each of us banks our own spins.

Quote: Slot Challenge #2

Anyone claiming to be able to beat slot machines is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You will play at least 3000 spins across any number of slot machines. You get to pick which machines to play and how you want to play them, using your own special techniques.
* If you are ahead at the end I will pay you $1000. If you are behind you will pay me $1000.
* You bank your spins yourself.
* Play must be completed in a no more than 3 sessions lasting no longer than eight hours total at any single Vegas casino.
* You can choose any number of spins above 3000, as long as you choose the number before you start playing.
* If you can truly beat slot machines this should be an easy win for you.

Note that a difference between the slot challenges and the betting system challenges are that someone could win the slot challenges through pure luck. So I don't offer 10:1 odds on the slot challenges, and I keep the stakes low to limit my risk.

I would rule out Blackjack, Video Poker, and Keno machines, which may or may not be legally considered slots. I see that you specified "physical or video reels" so I think you are covered.

Does the player get to choose any machine or does the player have to propose a hypothesis, such as "better paying machines are near the buffet" and then choose machines based on that hypothesis?

If I were to take you up on the first offer, I think I would put you on the bank that advertises "5X points." I'm not certain, but I think that's a give away that you are playing horrible paytables.

Its nice to have a "put your money where your mouth is" option. However, the fact remains that slot machine placement is an ever changing situation driven by many factors including predictions of crowd flow and assumptions of current interests. Routine maintenance often results in re-arranged slot machines, attempts to use a foreign device often result in slot machine re-location, any whim of a slot machine director to follow that old wives tale would soon be weakened by routine adjustments. Yet it is is within the power of a slots director to actually institute some such policy. Of course if the casino were small enough it could simply happen by chance.
Now since the wager is really low for all the work that would have to go into the research and casinos often don't like anyone looking at serial numbers it would hard to disprove other than through a challenge which really is just a bet of 1200 to 1000.

So do you really think that 2,000 spins would answer the underlying question of "Near X pays Max"?

This reminds me of those creepy scam artists who go around saying "psst... that machine can be turned "hot" by my friend over their who knows the secret codes which he will be happy to manipulate if you agree to give us half your winnings" ... its just too easy to turn out that the machine suddenly will get "hot" ... but it won't be due to some jerk's secret button pushing.

As I read the challenges...

Challenge #1 is for the people that think they know the "hot" and "cold" zones of the slot floor.

Challenge #2 is for people that think that the cosmic karma is looking over them and not you, or that the have a "slot system" or whatever.

In either case, that person should be expecting not just to beat you, but to be significantly ahead of you. Therefore, he shouldn't win just because he comes out one penny ahead. It should be some percentage ahead. Doesn't have to be much. Maybe as low as having at least 1% more than what you have, but enough to show he really was a bigger winner (or smaller loser).

---

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

* I'll wager my $1000 against your $1200 that you will not be ahead of me at the end.

I don't see why Challenge #1 has him giving you odds, and Challenge #2 does not. Frankly, neither needs odds if you use my "significantly ahead" rule.

---

I also question how it's going to be monitored to ensure that the minimum spins is accomplished and that there's no cheating, but I assume you've got that part worked out - or you'll figure it out before the challenge is agreed to.

I am not a slot player, but it is my understanding that a casino is allowed to use different chips, with different payout rates, on otherwise-similar machines if they want to. They just aren't likely to announce which are the "good" machines and which are the "bad" ones. I realize that in your challenge #1, you are assuming that if such a situation exists, it is not really based on location in the casino and that your challenger will not likely be able to figure out a good machine and a bad machine with which to challenge you. I think you are at risk of losing to someone who has inside information. Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

Quote: Doc

I am not a slot player, but it is my understanding that a casino is allowed to use different chips, with different payout rates, on otherwise-similar machines if they want to. They just aren't likely to announce which are the "good" machines and which are the "bad" ones. I realize that in your challenge #1, you are assuming that if such a situation exists, it is not really based on location in the casino and that your challenger will not likely be able to figure out a good machine and a bad machine with which to challenge you. I think you are at risk of losing to someone who has inside information. Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

Exactly my thinking, and more well written than I cared to attempt.

Quote: Doc

Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

If such a slot tech existed, would he suddenly give a friend the info because of this challenge? Seems to me he'd provide the info regardless.

Also, I'd think that both the tech and player would avoid the challenge in order to keep a low profile.

Quote: Doc

Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

I'd be fairly confident. Even the best slots are not an advantage play, right? So knowing them wouldn't be all that useful. Therefore I don't see a tech or a manager risking their job by handing out inside info on that subject. Unless the "good" chips are so good they overpay and create a player advantage. But in that case, the tech and her friend would be quietly bleeding the casino long term.

Of course the challenge could make such information flow. But if you knew all the factors involved and could weigh them with a large degree of confidence, it would hardly be a gamble.

Nareed & DJ:

I didn't mean to imply that there are really "good" machines or that a player advantage ever exists vs. the casino. But it is not implausible to me that a slot tech might tell a friend or relative, "we swapped from 88% chips to 81% chips on that row of machines over by the party pit." Particularly if there were $1,000 available from Michael BlueJay that they could pick up with that little bit of knowledge.

Oh. That makes more sense.