Coronavirus Bets
February 8th, 2020 at 2:32:18 PM
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I was looking at stock charts for the Sands and MGM over the last few weeks and it got me thinking about how one might place bets on the impact of the virus. Is this going to be a big fat bowl of nothing that is soon forgotten or is it closer to a Twelve Monkeys scenario? The question is: what are the possible outcomes and what are the odds for each?
The challenge is how do you set odds for this kind of bet? Some sources I've come across that seem to be more fact-based and well written then most are
- The two most likely scenarios if it isn't contained
- Timeline for producing a vaccine
Based on these I'm thinking the likely outcome (say ~ 85%) is gone by June with annual re-occurrences that have negligible impact and long-term consequences limited to a bad 1st quarter for some business sectors. Not sure what the bets would be: long on vaccine producers and on-line retailers? Bet on a re-bound in gaming stocks with a lot of exposure in Asia? or maybe somebody like Ladbrokes is setting odds and taking bets.
The challenge is how do you set odds for this kind of bet? Some sources I've come across that seem to be more fact-based and well written then most are
- The two most likely scenarios if it isn't contained
- Timeline for producing a vaccine
Based on these I'm thinking the likely outcome (say ~ 85%) is gone by June with annual re-occurrences that have negligible impact and long-term consequences limited to a bad 1st quarter for some business sectors. Not sure what the bets would be: long on vaccine producers and on-line retailers? Bet on a re-bound in gaming stocks with a lot of exposure in Asia? or maybe somebody like Ladbrokes is setting odds and taking bets.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
February 8th, 2020 at 3:48:53 PM
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this is a sick post, man
there's already a few hundred dead, was it a "big fat bowl of nothing" to them?
really inappropriate
there's already a few hundred dead, was it a "big fat bowl of nothing" to them?
really inappropriate
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
February 8th, 2020 at 6:37:56 PM
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Quote: bobbartopthis is a sick post, man
there's already a few hundred dead, was it a "big fat bowl of nothing" to them?
really inappropriate
I always look at the big picture. If 1 million people die it is still very insignificant to the world population.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
February 8th, 2020 at 6:39:00 PM
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Quote: bobbartop
there's already a few hundred dead, was it a "big fat bowl of nothing" to them?
800+
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
February 8th, 2020 at 6:42:40 PM
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Quote: DRichI always look at the big picture. If 1 million people die it is still very insignificant to the world population.
Rich, your post is just as sick as the other guy's. To each individual, one's life is pretty important.
Is this "sound-like-Stalin" Day or something?
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
February 8th, 2020 at 7:04:29 PM
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I wouldn't even bet on crematoriums staying in business. They're going to choke to death on their own dust.
February 8th, 2020 at 9:27:05 PM
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I'm going to close this thread because there are already two on the Corona Virus. Here is one of them: CORONAVIRUS CLOSES MACAU CASINOS.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
