Mystery Bonus Math Question

I have this video keno progressive play. The frequency to snap the meter off is 2405 games. There is a side feature in this game called Mystery Bonus. You'll be playing along and "Mystery Bonus" will flash across the screen, then 10 tiles will appear. You pick a tile and are awarded whatever the amount is behind the tile. The average mystery bonus is 680 bets. I have no clue how often the mystery bonus hits playing straight through. Once I snap the meter off I have to get off the machine as the game is negative at reset.

But I have a set of statistics. In the past 7 years I've had about 1700 plays on this game. I'm on the machine an average of 2405 games. I've hit the Mystery Bonus on 10% of the plays. So my question is: Can these two numbers be used to calculate how often the Mystery Bonus hits if one were playing straight through? Any help is appreciated.

Let me get this straight, the mystery bonus is a separate feature that has nothing to with the progressive, and you're just wondering what is the probability of the Mystery Bonus showing up? And you have hit the bonus about 170 times in about 4.09 million games?

With your sample, we can only be about 95% sure that the probability of hitting it is somewhere between 1 in 20,695 and 1 in 27,940.

If you want to be 99% sure to fall within the range, then the range would be between 1 in 19,794 and 1 in 29,372.

Quote: tringlomane

Let me get this straight, the mystery bonus is a separate feature that has nothing to with the progressive, and you're just wondering what is the probability of the Mystery Bonus showing up? And you have hit the bonus about 170 times in about 4.09 million games?

With your sample, we can only be about 95% sure that the probability of hitting it is somewhere between 1 in 20,695 and 1 in 27,940.

If you want to be 99% sure to fall within the range, then the range would be between 1 in 19,794 and 1 in 29,372.

Yes, tringlomane, the mystery bonus is a separate feature. Thank you so much for the help.