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EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 3:30:27 PM permalink
Right now its at $147 so anybody who bought it over
$175 just lost their collective asses. It was as high as
$266 today and as low as $105. The screams you heard
were the roof jumpers..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
24Bingo
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April 10th, 2013 at 3:37:42 PM permalink
Damn. Almost started mining... not worth it now.

Now nothing to do but wait for it to bottom out.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 3:46:00 PM permalink
Its back up to $175 but the damage has been done. Investors
will be terrified now, the horse is out of the barn. Now that they
know it can go from $266 to $105 in the space of a few hours,
the instability of Bitcoin is a glaring fact. Never a good thing for
any collectible.

Edit: Now its jumping all over the place. Was $130 5min ago,
now $154. Who knows where this will end.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 10th, 2013 at 4:10:41 PM permalink
http://blockchain.info/charts
aahigh.com
EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 4:11:54 PM permalink
Edit: $142 and falling. This is exciting.

Edit: $148 and rising.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
bbvk05
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April 10th, 2013 at 5:10:26 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Its back up to $175 but the damage has been done. Investors
will be terrified now, the horse is out of the barn. Now that they
know it can go from $266 to $105 in the space of a few hours,
the instability of Bitcoin is a glaring fact. Never a good thing for
any collectible.

Edit: Now its jumping all over the place. Was $130 5min ago,
now $154. Who knows where this will end.




This type of crash has happened twice before. This type of manipulation has little to do with real demand for the product.
EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 5:39:51 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

This type of crash has happened twice before. This type of manipulation has little to do with real demand for the product.



It went from $31 to $2 in 2011. A lot more painful this
time.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
thecesspit
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April 10th, 2013 at 5:41:49 PM permalink
A 15 fold loss is less painful than a 60% loss?

Really?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 6:07:26 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

A 15 fold loss is less painful than a 60% loss?

Really?



Dollar wise, yes. Any gambler knows that from painful
experience.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
24Bingo
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April 10th, 2013 at 6:40:07 PM permalink
...you do realize that people aren't buying these one at a time, right?
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Ahigh
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April 10th, 2013 at 6:43:24 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Dollar wise, yes. Any gambler knows that from painful
experience.



Now I understand about other people wanting the sarcasm detector.

I hope that EvenBob meant this as a joke.

If he did, it was pretty damn funny in the context of saying I don't know what money is.

If he didn't, I feel like a pretty evil person picking on him.
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pacomartin
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:20:20 PM permalink
It's at $167 at this moment. Still more than a tenfold increase since January 1.

It is sort of inevitable that the value would fluctuate wildly. I mean you can't increase at this kind of exponential rate forever. Even if it stays between $100 and $200 for the rest of this year, the accomplishment would still be remarkable.
EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:22:15 PM permalink
The Bitcoin forums are loaded with people who
bought for $90 10 days ago and sold for $250
today. Thats a hell of a profit in 10 days, I don't
blame them for bragging.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AlanMendelson
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:27:10 PM permalink
I just want to make one comment about Bitcoin: there is nothing wrong with using your "mad money" to speculate in bitcoin.
What is "mad money"? It's that 3% or less of income that is left over after you pay your bills and fund your savings and retirement (if you don't already have a retirement account at work).
Other uses for "mad money" include speculating on art, coins, stamps, and lending to relatives.

Bitcoin might be better than lending to some relatives.
EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:31:20 PM permalink
Somebody on a Bitcoin forum just cut right to the bone.
He said nobody will ever trust a currency that can fluctuate
more than 50% in one day. The speculators have taken over
and they'll ruin it, just like they ruin everything.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 10th, 2013 at 8:12:52 PM permalink
I don't know that it's speculation that is causing the value to go up and down. The liquidity is sort of ill-defined when it's affected by DOS attacks.

http://news.slashdot.org/story/13/04/10/215227/bitcoin-value-collapses-possibly-due-to-ddos

I would chalk it up to potentially just growing pains.

If it gets more mature, this isn't going to happen forever.

If it dies completely, it will be worth zero.

All the other assumptions are that it continues to operate as it is. I find that even more unlikely than it dying.

It will mature is the most logical assumption for what will happen.

There may even come into existence a dedicated physical network to facilitate the liquidity needed for the currency to be more mature than it is now being built on top of the broader internet.

Nobody does DOS attacks on the NASDAQ. They could do a DOS on Ameritrade, but not on the NASDAQ itself.

Things can mature, I think, given time and understanding.

If anything this wild fluctuation is the signal that we are in the riskiest moments where the most opportunity to profit exists .. trading risk for profit is generally how things work.

This thing is really new still given the assumption that it continues to be the leading digital currency going forwards.
aahigh.com
EvenBob
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April 10th, 2013 at 8:21:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



It will mature is the most logical assumption for what will happen.
.



Mature into what? Not a currency. Nobody wants or will accept
a currency that can fluctuate 50% in an afternoon. People freak
when the USD goes up or down at all. 50% fluctuation isn't
a currency, its a collectible. Thats what they do, fluctuate wildly.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AceCrAAckers
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:28:28 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Thank you so much for your valuable contribution to the forum.


You are welcome.

I believe Thomas Jefferson said that paper is only ghost of money. When have we gotten so disconnected with what is real, that we buy into something with zero intrinsic value.

Ahigh you are awarded 1 WOV coin.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:37:18 AM permalink
The result of the panic doubled my number of bitcoins in 24 hours.

If I can do this 32 more times, I will have all the bitcoins.

I didn't research far enough along to understand, but I wasn't sure if mining bitcoins is easier when fewer people are doing it. IE: mine them when they are cheaper just like buy them when they are cheaper is the way to go.
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24Bingo
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April 11th, 2013 at 9:13:18 AM permalink
I don't think so. The difficulty increases more slowly when fewer people are doing it, which was important in the early days, but it's at enough of a plateau now that that doesn't really matter. I think it's basically a slot machine on which your pool is making so many billions of pulls per second, and they pay you for the number of your near misses.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 12:14:35 PM permalink
$123 at 3pm EST. Now's the time to stock up on these
Beanie Babies and put them under your mattress.
They will only go up in value, just like real currency.

No, wait, the hallmark of a real currency is its stability,
its dependability. It can't fluctuate wildly or nobody
will trust it.

Never mind..

Last price:$123.40098
High:$203.00000
Low:$105.00000
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
bbvk05
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April 11th, 2013 at 1:31:21 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

I don't think so. The difficulty increases more slowly when fewer people are doing it, which was important in the early days, but it's at enough of a plateau now that that doesn't really matter. I think it's basically a slot machine on which your pool is making so many billions of pulls per second, and they pay you for the number of your near misses.




The difficulty can absolutely go down. It has happened before. It just isn't in the cards any time soon.
bbvk05
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April 11th, 2013 at 1:32:40 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

$123 at 3pm EST. Now's the time to stock up on these
Beanie Babies and put them under your mattress.
They will only go up in value, just like real currency.

No, wait, the hallmark of a real currency is its stability,
its dependability. It can't fluctuate wildly or nobody
will trust it.

Never mind..

Last price:$123.40098
High:$203.00000
Low:$105.00000




Bob, what is the purpose of your jihad here? That bitcoin is a better commodity than currency?
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 1:52:18 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

Bob, what is the purpose of your jihad here? That bitcoin is a better commodity than currency?



I find it fascinating that it went up so high
and came down so fast. Is it due to speculation?
Can we always expect this kind of behavior from
Bitcoin? How can it be called a currency when
it fluctuates so wildly? Is it trading right now
or is MtGox still in emergency shut down because
of the selling panic.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 1:57:16 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

Bob, what is the purpose of your jihad here? That bitcoin is a better commodity than currency?



I do think he (EvenBob) is learning stuff. That much is good.

If you make enough statements, eventually one will turn out to be true. I think that's part of it too.

I doubt anyone is following along with Bob's assertions about how currency and money work, though.
aahigh.com
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:05:02 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



I doubt anyone is following along with Bob's assertions about how currency and money work, though.



I'm afraid none of them are my assertions, they are
all from articles by financial experts. What are your
assertions, why don't you teach us O Master Of Everything.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:13:11 PM permalink
Because of the selling panic, MtGox has suspended trading
till 10pm EDT, 2am UTC. The feeling on Twitter is trading
will be frenzied when the suspension is lifted. We will see.
I found out yesterday my son has money in Bitcoin and is
riding it out. He bought in at $40.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:55:47 PM permalink
My latest basis price is $77 (I got this price today on bitfloor).
aahigh.com
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 3:01:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

My latest basis price is $77 (I got this price today on bitfloor).



Bitfloor is also down, just like MtGox. Bitfloor has
been down for hours. The gold digging speculators
have ruined Bitcoin, if the discussion boards are to
be believed.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 3:17:31 PM permalink
Yeah, I already sent my coins over to my iPhone. bitfloor was acting pretty wacky today!!! I sent them to my phone as soon as I could because I wasn't trusting what bitfloor was doing when the prices were so far out of whack compared to other trading systems. I didn't want to give them an opportunity to say my transaction wasn't valid.

Bitfloor also got a lot of bad press for letting $250,000 worth of bitcoins get stolen in September.
aahigh.com
24Bingo
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April 11th, 2013 at 3:17:53 PM permalink
All I know is that if I found myself stuck with any right now I'd be on a Silk Road spending spree... (checks) the prices haven't gone up...? It was 6-7 per 100g MDPV before, and it still is.

(...I'm not advocating buying drugs, by the way. It was just the only one I could remember.)
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
bbvk05
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April 11th, 2013 at 4:23:52 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I find it fascinating that it went up so high
and came down so fast. Is it due to speculation?
Can we always expect this kind of behavior from
Bitcoin? How can it be called a currency when
it fluctuates so wildly? Is it trading right now
or is MtGox still in emergency shut down because
of the selling panic.




Of course it is due to speculation. The swings should lessen (by %) over time, but as long as someone is running the dump and DDOS the exchanges playbook there will be fluctuation.

Many currencies fluctuate wildly. Mt. Gox is down due to their complete lack of technical capacity to handle the volume and DDOS. It's worth noting they deny DDOS. I have been convinced otherwise by technical people.

This crash event will certainly shake confidence the currency, as it has before. What it tells us is that the current exchanges and trading capacity simply can't handle the volume when there is a sell off or major buying event. The shaken confidence could, however, create a decent value.

I am not a big fan of putting and real amount of USD into bit coin. The only time I did it was when it crashed from 30 to 3.
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 4:25:36 PM permalink
Yeah, that sounds like a Cloud 9 plan there. I'll hoard json wallets like Beanie Babies and keep them in my fire-proof box.

There will be buying opportunities following this crash just like there were back in September. Probably just won't last as many months until more people understand crypto currencies.

It will probably only be a few months before a more battle-hardened service (EG: Ameritrade) allows you to buy and sell bitcoins or an ETF that represents the value of the bitcoin on some other exchange that is more foolproof.

The underlying problem isn't the technology for the currencies. It's the technology for a centralized web-based trading system that is lacking.
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bbvk05
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April 11th, 2013 at 4:26:18 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

All I know is that if I found myself stuck with any right now I'd be on a Silk Road spending spree... (checks) the prices haven't gone up...? It was 6-7 per 100g MDPV before, and it still is.

(...I'm not advocating buying drugs, by the way. It was just the only one I could remember.)




Even getting to the silk road requires more sophistication than late-comers to bitcoin have.
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 4:34:18 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



There will be buying opportunities following this crash



There were lots of buying opportunities after the market
crashed in 1929. Most of them were bad. Crap will always
be for sale to those who want to pay for it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
pacomartin
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April 11th, 2013 at 6:56:35 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

Of course it is due to speculation. The swings should lessen (by %) over time, but as long as someone is running the dump and DDOS the exchanges playbook there will be fluctuation. Many currencies fluctuate wildly.



Quote: New York Times

By CARTER DOUGHERTY Published: September 22, 2008

Financial deregulation in the 1980s fed a frenzy of real estate lending by Sweden’s banks, which did not worry enough about whether the value of their collateral might evaporate in tougher times.

Property prices imploded. The bubble deflated fast in 1991 and 1992. A vain effort to defend Sweden’s currency, the krona, caused overnight interest rates to spike at one point to 500 percent. The Swedish economy contracted for two consecutive years after a long expansion, and unemployment, at 3 percent in 1990, quadrupled in three years.



CIA World Book lists Sweden's M3 money supply at US$440.2 billion as of 31 December 2011 (top two dozen in the world). If you can jerk around a currency worth $100's of billions then you can certainly jerk around something worth less than a billion dollars.

Quote: Wikipedia

On September 16, 1992, Black Wednesday, George Soros' fund sold short more than $10 billion in pounds, profiting from the UK government's reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float its currency. Finally, the UK withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, devaluing the pound, earning Soros an estimated $1.1 billion. He was dubbed "the man who broke the Bank of England". In 1997, the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.



So given the history of national currencies, why would you expect anything less of bitcoins.
Boney526
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April 11th, 2013 at 7:45:09 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I do think he (EvenBob) is learning stuff. That much is good.

If you make enough statements, eventually one will turn out to be true. I think that's part of it too.

I doubt anyone is following along with Bob's assertions about how currency and money work, though.



But you can't just post articles with a short comment that doesn't even show you understood what you posted and expect people to take you seriously.

And I'm also certain that I could go find articles making the opposite claim. It'd be legitimate if you actually examined some article you posted.... but I suspect you won't because I'm not sure you do understand what you're posting. And by posting these articles, and then asserting that Bitcoins aren't money, you are making an assertion. Your assertion may be that you agree with these experts - but you can't, or haven't, defended that assertion so you come off like you're just seeking attention and nothing more....

If I posted a paper about quantum mechanics, that would give no indication to anyone that I understand it. And trust me, I wouldn't.


And you earlier asserted that the hallmark of currency is it's stability.... that is not true. Although - unstable currencies often become useless - that can and has occurred in the past with both government and privately created currencies... I doubt that's the path of the Bitcoin, I also don't expect it to be the a very useful or valuable currency in the future. And yes, it is obviously unstable. Although I think it's going to have more periods of relative stability with short spurts of corrections....
understand it.

EDIT - I quoted the wrong post here...
24Bingo
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:01:32 PM permalink
EvenBob doesn't have to understand, as long as EvenBob is right, and EvenBob is always right, because the definition of "right" is "EvenBob."

...aaaanyway...

I may have to eat my words here, but I think this is the end of the bubble. I don't think any of the speculators stuck it out through the crash there, so I expect it's just going to level off now that the more opportunistic ideologues who held out or sold are buying (back) in.

(Quietly reboots miner...)
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:04:52 PM permalink
Quote: Boney526

But you can't just post articles with a short comment.



Sure I can, because I'm posting for myself and not you.
Or anybody else. Once you start worrying if you're
pleasing everybody, you'll never post anything.

Quote: Boney526

And you earlier asserted that the hallmark of currency is it's stability.... that is not true.



"Exchange rate stability (of currency) is the hallmark of economic performance."

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Exchange+rate+stability+is+hallmark+of+economic+performance.-a0257306909
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Boney526
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:30:08 PM permalink
Well you can always be right if you slice people's sentences apart in order to ignore part of them.

You can do whatever you want, but as the second half of my sentence said, don't expect people to take you seriously.


See how you skipped over the important part?

Anyway I'm not trying to "combat" you here. I'm just saying that it is illogical for you to expect people to take your comments seriously, if you are posting for yourself - then do as you please. Personally I don't see the point in putting a comment on a public forum if the comment was meant for yourself. If that's what it's meant for, why not just think it and not waste anymore time?


I would go into why that description is wrong, but I'll just leave it alone. It's clear that you have your opinion, and since your comments directed at other people are posted "for yourself" I'd have to assume that you don't care about what's right or wrong, or what is logical.
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:41:24 PM permalink
Quote: Boney526



I would go into why that description is wrong, but I'll just leave it alone..



No doubt. There's a lot of that in this thread. A lot
of finger pointing and no explanations. I understand..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:44:04 PM permalink
Forbes agrees with me:

'Bitcoins Are Digital Collectibles, Not Real Money'

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2013/04/11/bitcoins-are-digital-collectibles-not-real-money/
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
24Bingo
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:48:09 PM permalink
I don't think you actually understand why it is people cite things.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Boney526
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:53:49 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Louis Woodhill agrees with me:

'Bitcoins Are Digital Collectibles, Not Real Money'

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2013/04/11/bitcoins-are-digital-collectibles-not-real-money/



FYP

Recognize that people who are knowledgeable on these subjects disagree, just as with many other subjects like this.

But if you want to make a claim and IF your goal is to have a discussion about it - then give solid reasoning, and don't just link articles without explaining your opinion.

If your goal is just to post for posting sake, then fine.
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:54:27 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

I don't think you actually understand why it is people cite things.



I cite things because they bolster my point.
Why do you cite things?

MtGox is down again, $98 was the last price.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
24Bingo
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April 11th, 2013 at 10:57:59 PM permalink
I cite things to acknowledge that the ideas I cite, which must be defended on their own merits, are not my own. Sometimes the defense of the ideas is implied, if the matter is sufficiently objective and the author of sufficient standing, but that's separate from the primary purpose, just like a casino's functions of providing a venue and fading bets are two functions even when performed by the same action.

In short, to think citations exist to bolster you is exactly backwards: they exist to tether you.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 11:06:39 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo



In short, to think citations exist to bolster you is exactly backwards: they exist to tether you.



They tether you, maybe, not me. I have an opinion
and search for others to bolster that opinion. If you
get tethered to the opinions of others, that's your
problem, don't thrust it on me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
onenickelmiracle
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April 11th, 2013 at 11:19:46 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Forbes agrees with me:

'Bitcoins Are Digital Collectibles, Not Real Money'

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2013/04/11/bitcoins-are-digital-collectibles-not-real-money/


So is physical gold and silver and it's a pretty good way to get people not to invest in them. When they sit with a computer which controls the world as we know it( the fed), anything is possible with the power to create money. I don't see how anyone can ever beat them, unless they defeat themselves.
I am a robot.
pacomartin
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April 12th, 2013 at 4:46:28 PM permalink
Canada is circulating roughly 50 banknotes per capita right now, adding up to slightly over $1700 per capita . As most people know they are trying to modernize their currency. The best known effort is switching from paper to polymer banknotes. The next effort is eliminating the penny. A third effort is to make it possible to conduct electronic transactions that are untraceable (more like exchanging banknotes and coins then paying for things by credit card). This last effort is usually promoted as a way to eliminate small cash transactions and the accompanying difficulty in making change, and helping to minimize the motivation for burglary and theft and all the accompanying risk to people and expenses associated with guarding cash drawers.

I think the recent bitcoin fascination would inspire some people who are in charge of national currencies.

But, as we know there is that once you figure out how to easily pay for a candy bar or a bag of groceries electronically leaving no permanent record, you can probably figure out how to move large amounts of cash electronically with no record. Canada could get into the business that USA has been in since WWII, creating large amounts of cash for people around the world to use discreetly and anonymously for whatever purpose they choose (honest or dishonest).

Notes per capita as of 2011 for Canada
6.6 $5
3.5 $10
24.5 $20
5.5 $50
9.0 $100

Such a move means that transporting money becomes much easier if it does't involve physically moving banknotes. It is easier for honest and dishonest purposes alike, But it is also very profitable for the United States as it involves exporting something without all the cost of manufacturing something. While currency is technically a liability, if no one ever collects on the liability, it behaves more like profit.

While most of these questions could ostensibly be asked about the US dollar, any major move in that direction would have a larger impact on the world finance system. I think the question is more appropriate concerning the Canadian or Australian dollar which would be a significant change in the use of currency, but not a global changing paradigm.
24Bingo
24Bingo
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April 13th, 2013 at 11:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

They tether you, maybe, not me. I have an opinion
and search for others to bolster that opinion. If you
get tethered to the opinions of others, that's your
problem, don't thrust it on me.



I tried to decide between half a dozen snarky responses to this paragraph before realizing I didn't need one. Does anyone not see what's wrong with this picture?
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
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