Everyone was speculating about SLS mail, win or lose it wasn't that good. If you are playing something with a low HA sometimes it's worth the risk especially for future information. Had he been correct he could've had his significant other do the same. Maybe a big session on higher limit machines might get noticed and lead to a gig at SLS, perhaps there's value in that.Quote: houyi
I really enjoyed this week's show of Gambling with an Edge--Limon sounded like kind of a jerk at times but he was generally pretty funny and he was trying to keep things interesting. One thing I really appreciated (though I'm not sure how much the hosts appreciated it) was that he really seemed to press Bob Dancer to explain just how an edge is gained at video poker and how an AP video poker player calculates their edge. I don't like to speculate, but generally Bob seemed uncomfortable throughout this and seemed to evade directly answering Limon's inquires. Loosely paraphrasing, this portion of the segment went as follows:
BD: "AP Video Poker players certainly exist. When SLS first opened I made 100 k their opening weekend."
L: "Wow, that's great, how did you manage that?"
BD: "Well, I hit a royal."
L: "Well, Bob, anyone can buy a lotto ticket. What was your actual EV?"
BD: "About 25 k."
L: "Well, that is impressive, how did you get the EV from that?"
BD: "They were matching offers, and I had a 5 k freeplay, so I got 5 k for showing up."
L: "Ok, so that's 5, where's the other 20? You're still playing a losing game."
L: "What did they send you in the mail?"
L: "So where was the EV?"
BD: "Well usually given my play it would have been like 10 k freeplay every month, but I won, so they sent nothing."
L: "Well, that's usually, how did you know what they were going to send you, given that it turned out to be nothing?"
After this, BD kind of shut down. Now, I am almost exclusively a table games and poker player, and what AP video poker I do use, I pretty much just limit to enough to get me hotel stays and food comps when I travel to certain areas of the country to play tables and/or poker. I get some free play, but not enough to say I am really bringing home significant money. I know my expected loss is much less than I would have to pay out of pocket for these things (or indeed comparable things outside the casino), so I am happy. Now, from what I understand, absent very temporary situations where something like "10x points day" puts a "99.xx" machine into positive expectation, people making an actual living playing video poker are doing so by getting large mailers due to a misjudgment on the casino's part on the theo of a particular machine. I imagine this info is first brought to light from either: a) trial and error, b) networking with APs who have already discovered this info, or c) coming to some arrangement with casino personnel wherein they give out this info in exchange for money and/or goods and/or services.
My question is: how would BD know that he was going to be sent mailers => 10k for a casino that was just opening? How exactly did he calculate the EV from this play? And is this actually just a part of AP video poker where you need to take a "leap of faith" to realize any actual profit and just hope they send out what you think they will send?
I'd appreciate any insight to clear up my lack of knowledge, whether on this thread or through PM.
I never understand why APs must defend their profession or even publicly talk about it on forums or whatever. Why not let people think APs don't exist and that it's impossible?
Motorcity casino used to have the 40/10/6 DDB in $5 & $10 denominations with .33% cash back (which was actual cash, not free play) and .33% comp rate which you could turn into free play at a $3 to $1 rate.
That would be a good game by today's standards. I would certainly play it heavily if it existed in Vegas today. I don't know how recently that was. I don't know how long that "opportunity" lasted. And there's a big difference in exposure to a casino between $5/$10 games and $25/$100.
Motorcity is s a Detroit casino.
What was the state income tax situation in Michigan at the time? Was there a forced tax or withholding on W2Gs? Could you deduct losses against wins on a state level? Either of these factors could have kept pros from hammering that machine. (Nevada has no state income tax).
Also, I'm sure there are a lot more well-financed video poker pros in Vegas (including tourists) than there are in Detroit (which isn't known as a tourist hot spot for gambling)..