DRich
DRich
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November 19th, 2015 at 12:44:14 PM permalink
On the Gambling With an Edge radio show this week there was quite a dichotomy in guests. The first guest Jeffery Compton was his informative self and comes across very professional. I thought the second guest whose name I didn't get was terrible and seemed quite uninformed about the business of gaming.

Did anyone else hear this? If so, what were your thoughts?
Romes
Romes
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November 19th, 2015 at 12:52:27 PM permalink
I just got done listening to it actually... and I disagree. Dennis Krum is a casino consultant that, in the realm of the radio show, was showing his attempts to teach the casino to get out of the "win/loss" mentality. I completely agree with Dennis's analysis on casinos as well as Richard's add on of "employees just trying to keep their jobs."

I've seen it in the pits. Some drunk guy who has NO CLUE what he's doing gets up a lot of money and they give him the boot, ask him to stop playing, buy him dinner so they can send him away, etc... PB's are scared if their tables lose a lot of money they'll get fired, because that's what the higher up execs look at because they're, well, idiots.

Casinos used to understand (I think) that they have a built in edge, and just like any AP, they just need to get to the long run to see it. Any great blackjack player can't win on any given night, just like one blackjack table in a casino only gets 5 hours of "full" play (6 spots so 30 hours of total play) in any given night. These casinos are terrified if the tables are losing that some "AP" is getting them, or some players are just on winning streaks that affect their bottom lines when in reality any one player pretty much won't affect their bottom line. Yes, there are huge mega ultra whales that might want to bet hundreds of thousands per hand, but that's up to the casino to accept or decline that variance. What they should be looking at instead of "did we win or lose tonight" is "what was our expectation from the action tonight?" Casinos need to understand what Certainty Equivalent (CE) is...

This, at least to me, is what Dennis was explaining... and I couldn't agree with it more.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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November 19th, 2015 at 1:19:23 PM permalink
Careful. One of those big outfits might offer you a job, a job on the 'darkside'.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
jml24
jml24
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November 19th, 2015 at 1:27:28 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Casinos used to understand (I think) that they have a built in edge, and just like any AP, they just need to get to the long run to see it. Any great blackjack player can't win on any given night, just like one blackjack table in a casino only gets 5 hours of "full" play (6 spots so 30 hours of total play) in any given night. These casinos are terrified if the tables are losing that some "AP" is getting them, or some players are just on winning streaks that affect their bottom lines when in reality any one player pretty much won't affect their bottom line. Yes, there are huge mega ultra whales that might want to bet hundreds of thousands per hand, but that's up to the casino to accept or decline that variance. What they should be looking at instead of "did we win or lose tonight" is "what was our expectation from the action tonight?" Casinos need to understand what Certainty Equivalent (CE) is...



If a PB doesn't understand this he shouldn't be in the business. If somebody is a winner you comp them a free room so they stay longer and lose it back. If everyone lost a nice steady amount every visit, the casino's profits would be very constant: zero, because nobody would gamble under those conditions.
Romes
Romes
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November 19th, 2015 at 1:39:09 PM permalink
Quote: jml24

If a PB doesn't understand this he shouldn't be in the business. If somebody is a winner you comp them a free room so they stay longer and lose it back. If everyone lost a nice steady amount every visit, the casino's profits would be very constant: zero, because nobody would gamble under those conditions.

It might amaze you if you've never seen it first hand... but 95% of the PB's I've come across don't even know how the games they're overseeing work. The amount of negligence and miss-information in most pits is astounding. They're just there to do they're job and collect a check. All they care about is self preservation, and if the execs sweat their pits losing money then they'll try to stop their pits from losing, even if that means doing something stupid and completely uneducated.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DRich
DRich
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November 19th, 2015 at 2:24:00 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

It might amaze you if you've never seen it first hand... but 95% of the PB's I've come across don't even know how the games they're overseeing work. The amount of negligence and miss-information in most pits is astounding. They're just there to do they're job and collect a check. All they care about is self preservation, and if the execs sweat their pits losing money then they'll try to stop their pits from losing, even if that means doing something stupid and completely uneducated.



I agree with you that lots of casino personnel are clueless. Where I completely disagree with the guest is his thinking that letting AP's play more is good for the casino. Anyone who would rather have a pro play a particular machine instead of a ploppy is crazy to me.

He also seemed clueless when he made the comment about casinos not backing off card counters decades ago. When Richard jumped in and said he had been barred from pretty much every place in town the guest seemed perplexed and surprised.
DRich
DRich
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November 19th, 2015 at 2:39:39 PM permalink
If anyone has any background on this guys casino experience I would be interested in hearing about it. The only thing I found while Googling him was that he was the Becker family administrative assistant and consultant in 1981 before they opened Arizona Charlies.

I would think that all of the AP's out there would want to know what casinos he is advising. Juicy opportunities are probably available.
Romes
Romes
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November 20th, 2015 at 7:02:44 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I agree with you that lots of casino personnel are clueless. Where I completely disagree with the guest is his thinking that letting AP's play more is good for the casino. Anyone who would rather have a pro play a particular machine instead of a ploppy is crazy to me.

He also seemed clueless when he made the comment about casinos not backing off card counters decades ago. When Richard jumped in and said he had been barred from pretty much every place in town the guest seemed perplexed and surprised.

It's a fine line. I DO agree letting AP's play progressives/etc is the wiser play for the casino. When a casino has a slot or VP progressive, that's money allocated to be paid out. They can't and won't keep it. So what do they want? What's the point of having the progressive? To get people to play... Why they wouldn't want an AP playing 1,000 hands per hour at max coins over Mrs. Daisy playing 200 hands per hour at min coins is beyond me. No matter what someone is going to hit it eventually, so why wouldn't you want the most ACTION in order to 1) get to the 'long run' faster, and 2) take the maximum "brokerage" fee from their build in house edge.

I do kind of agree with you and his views on blackjack AP's though. Even Richard said "what if this BJ counters EV is $500/hour?" Then he did say he'd back him off though. I don't think he was perplexed as to 'why' Richard was backed off, more so that in his view of things you shouldn't be kicking any players out at all. Flat bet, or back the counters off from BJ. In fact, he stated what he would do was change the rules so they wouldn't have an edge (H17, 8D, cut off 3-4 decks, etc).

Overall, the 'concept' he was pushing I believe entirely. Casinos need to stop worrying about their "win/loss" every night and remember that they are also playing for the long run... remember that they have a built in edge and they aren't even playing the game. They are a money BROKER that just passed money back and forth and they take a FEE (house edge) for the transactions. So what they want should be MAXIMUM transactions... and they shouldn't care about anything else such as nightly wins/losses. A great example of this is the El Cortez who's kicked players out for flat betting $50 and winning for an hour straight. You're not winning with a flat bet. Their games are tight so I doubt you're getting any extra info. Why on EARTH would you kick someone out for actually playing the HE straight up? I don't care if they're lucky and win 100 days in a row. So long as I believe they're playing the game straight up then I'm making CE off them and when they get to the long run they will give me my expectation. This is the theory/belief I think he was trying to push, and I whole heartedly agree with it.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DRich
DRich
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November 20th, 2015 at 10:23:05 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

It's a fine line. I DO agree letting AP's play progressives/etc is the wiser play for the casino. When a casino has a slot or VP progressive, that's money allocated to be paid out. They can't and won't keep it. So what do they want? What's the point of having the progressive? To get people to play... Why they wouldn't want an AP playing 1,000 hands per hour at max coins over Mrs. Daisy playing 200 hands per hour at min coins is beyond me. No matter what someone is going to hit it eventually, so why wouldn't you want the most ACTION in order to 1) get to the 'long run' faster, and 2) take the maximum "brokerage" fee from their build in house edge.



I guess we just disagree on this. Let's assume that the progressive will hit in 1000 spins. Do I want a pro playing it at 1000 hands per hour and hitting it and leaving the casino until the progressive is positive again. Wouldn't I rather have five little old ladies that play it at 200 hands per hour that continue to play as long as they have money? They will both hit it after the same amount of handle, and I can expect to get all the profit back with the old ladies because they show up every day that they have money.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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November 20th, 2015 at 10:55:11 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I guess we just disagree on this. Let's assume that the progressive will hit in 1000 spins. Do I want a pro playing it at 1000 hands per hour and hitting it and leaving the casino until the progressive is positive again. Wouldn't I rather have five little old ladies that play it at 200 hands per hour that continue to play as long as they have money? They will both hit it after the same amount of handle, and I can expect to get all the profit back with the old ladies because they show up every day that they have money.

That's horrible logic. (-;.

I think you have said it yourself places with better pay-tables are busier than others, at least locally. Lets go with that.


Ps. little old ladies tend to outpace everyone. Just go watch a slot tournament.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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