Please help me understand. "Two points" seems arbitrary.
Why not three points? Why not "don't bet the dark side before three consecutive point-sevens?"
I just want to understand the mathematical advantage to such a strategy.
There is no Mathematical formula to it; it is arbitrary. You have to decide when a "streak" begins and avoid getting burned by it. I think streaks start at 2 based on my craps experience. Some "Darkside" players will not bet against someone who hits a 7/11 on a Comeout roll.
When I see "Don't players" go bankrupt (Very rarely); it's due to stubbornness. Craps is "random" but most of the time there is only one "hot" shooter on a craps table if there is one at all. If you can avoid losing your entire bankroll to that "hot" shooter; you will do well. Everybody has their criteria of "hot" shooter.
Some people like a shooter who will hits multiple points; I prefer a "hot shooter" who repeats the same number over and over again. When I am "hot"; I hit 4's, 10's and hardways all day!
Playing the Don'ts properly takes a lot of patience. Can you stand there and watch a player hit 7 consecutive points without betting against him? In my opinion; the Casino's biggest strength is convincing us that "Craps is Random". Everybody is unique...people go on "runs". Avoid the "hot/lucky" shooter and make your money playing the Don'ts. I don't like playing the Don'ts because I LOVE the social aspect and comaraderie on a craps table among "right-side", Pass Line players.
I know a craps player in Florida who did not make a SINGLE point in 3 months of craps play (10+) sessions that I personally saw earlier this year. I decided to play the Don'ts against him (even though I HATE playing the Don'ts). The dark side players on the casino boat welcomed me to their side. He hit his first point and I "knew" right away things would be different. He had not hit a point in 10 sessions that I witnessed...now he hits a point...I am not betting against this guy! I switched to the Pass Line, Don't players kept on betting heavy against him and lost BIG when he went on a ridiculous run of points.
My advice to Don't Players;
1) Define your definition of "hot" shooters and avoid them. Don't lose your bankroll on one shooter.
2) Avoid getting killed on the Comeout Rolls. I have seen too many sessions where people have hit multiple 7's/11's on the Comeout rolls and destroyed players betting heavy on the Don't pass line.
3) If you notice a player hitting lots of 7's on the Comeout roll; lay all the #'s and get PAID; I'm working on adding this to my Craps "strategy". There is always a run of 4-5 consecutive 7's/11's on the Comeout roll; Laying all the #'s will get you paid! Also an 11 on the Comeout roll (Puck is off) does not affect your lay bets.
4) Playing the Don'ts is a marathon, not a sprint; make sure you have the patience and personality for it.
5) Do not hedge; that usually starts a bad precedent, then you might go crazy making too many hedge bets. Laying the 4's and 10's and hedging with the Hard 4 and Hard 10 is not a winning formula.
6) You are either a Pass Line Bettor or Don't Pass Line Bettor. Very few people know how to be both. Trying to flip-flop is a recipe for disaster most of the time!
7) Have a huge bankroll; playing the Don'ts takes a bankroll double the size of a Pass Line Bettor.
8) Avoid excessive celebrations. Craps is a social game. Playing the Don'ts makes you a target of some right side players.
In reference to Don't Pass Line #3, this is a game changer!
In reference to Don't Pass Line #5, I tried "laying the point" my last craps session especially against the 4 & 10 with the Hard 4 & Hard 10. I have never seen so many 3/1's and 6/4's in my life! I "layed" against the point 15 times (Documented) and did not win a single point. Either the player hit the point or hit lots of place #'s (getting me scared) so I picked up my "lay" bet. You already know what happens most of the time you pick up a "lay" bet; SEVEN!
In reference to Don't Pass Line #8, Personally I LOVE playing against Don't players who celebrate too much. Gives me extra motivation to make the point and "Take down the Don'ts"
*Please understand that these are only my opinions. I do not play the Don'ts on a regular basis so Don't players should have much better advice compared to me based on what they see on craps tables through the years.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!