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Impossible 843 of 3200 wins
| October 28th, 2011 at 8:50:18 AM permalink | |
| clempops4 Member since: Oct 23, 2011 Threads: 1 Posts: 21 | I was playing craps on a sports betting site that apparaently contracts out the casino and takes a percentage of the win. I was winning for a while averaging slightly over 50% but all of a suddden I begin losing most of my bets. I emailed my agent that I won only 27 of 114 bets and then followed with 126 wins of 450 bets. He told me I was just running bad. I knew I was being cheated so I decided to run a number so far out that it would be impossible to deny. I made 3200 decisions that I won only 843 and lost 2347. I documented these rolls in blocks of 100 each, the best block I won 37 bets and the worst I won 22 bets which happened 4 times out of the 32 blocks. The response I got was that they checked their software and did not find any abnrmalities. I need suggestions on what I should do next. |
| October 28th, 2011 at 9:06:13 AM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Mar 11, 2010 Threads: 57 Posts: 1948 |
You won 25% of your decisions? In 3200 trials, that's not even improbable let alone impossible. "So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett |
| October 28th, 2011 at 9:27:25 AM permalink | |
| iwannaiguana Member since: Jun 4, 2011 Threads: 7 Posts: 88 | depends on what bets you're making |
| October 28th, 2011 at 9:36:06 AM permalink | |
| dm Member since: Apr 29, 2010 Threads: 14 Posts: 699 |
Go to a REAL, live casino. |
| October 28th, 2011 at 9:49:55 AM permalink | |
| DorothyGale Member since: Nov 23, 2009 Threads: 40 Posts: 615 | When you say you won 843 and lost 2347 decisions, won and lost what? What is the decision you are winning and losing? Are you making pass line bets? Come bets? Proposition bets? A mixture? You are giving no useful information ... --Ms. D. Resident OZ-like entity ... |
| October 28th, 2011 at 10:00:39 AM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 309 Posts: 6700 |
Couldn't have said it better myself. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. |
| October 28th, 2011 at 10:05:39 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5684 |
That's far from impossible... Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| October 28th, 2011 at 1:04:47 PM permalink | |
| CrystalMath Member since: May 10, 2011 Threads: 3 Posts: 473 | If it is pass line bets, I would say it's damn near impossible. I heart Crystal Math. |
| October 28th, 2011 at 1:11:35 PM permalink | |
| dwheatley Member since: Nov 16, 2009 Threads: 10 Posts: 546 | I agree. That is way off the charts for the pass/DP lines. Now, if there are other bets mixed in there, the results are meaningless. But if that is pass line resolutions, the OP has a reason to be concerned. The #s break excel's binomdist() function. Even 85 successes (or worse) in 320 trials is in the range of e-17. I estimate the actual results are on the order of e-150. Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it |
| October 28th, 2011 at 1:11:49 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 309 Posts: 6700 |
Agreed, of course. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. |
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