Laying it all on the come out.

Recently at my home casino there was a player who lay all of the num on the come out roll, then pulled it down on the next number.

The way I see it, the EV of this bet is $2. Does this seem correct, or am I missing something???

If a 7 is rolled, player wins $120. If a number is rolled, the player loses the lay but gets all of the remainder of the lay back less the commission? Given that the player only wins when a 7 is thrown, is Big Red for a lesser amount a better bet???

This is a betting system. Betting systems don't work, unless there is a +ev bet in there somewhere, which there isn't. Sorry

Well, everything you do in craps is a betting "system". I was talking about an EV of -$2. I know that nothing in craps has a positive EV except perhaps the 5th point in a Fire Bet.

So, here's my calc:

Player lays $40 on the 4 and 10, $30 on the 5 and 9, and $24 on the 6 and 8 for $188 + $6 commission.

If a 7 is rolled, player received his $188 + $120 so he wins $114.
If a number is rolled, player loses the lay bet (including commission) but gets his money back as the money is taken down.
He leaves the bet up if a horn (2,3,11,12 is rolled)

My math tells me:

$114 x 6/30 - 41 x 6/30 - 31 x 8/30 - 25 x 10/30 = (684 - 246 - 248 - 250) / 30 = -60/30 = -$2.00.

I think this is correct.

The EV on a $10 Any 7 is $40 x 6/36 - 10 x 30/36 = -$1.67.

So, when it comes to sucker bets, I think the lay any number, while looking impressive, is just a variation of any 7, and is just as much a sucker bet.

Thoughts on this come out "system"?

Actually, at my particular casino, I would lay $60 behind each number, for a total of $360 in action.
With vig only payed on the win, you'd win $60, $80, and $100 ($234 total win).
I watched a high roller one night with literally BUNDLES of hundreds (Never seen that kinda shit before) put $600 behind each number and just win win win...nutty really.
The most I've ever done on a lay is No-4 for $120 for $2 juice.

Quote: boymimbo

Well, everything you do in craps is a betting "system". I was talking about an EV of -$2. I know that nothing in craps has a positive EV except perhaps the 5th point in a Fire Bet.

So, here's my calc:

Player lays $40 on the 4 and 10, $30 on the 5 and 9, and $24 on the 6 and 8 for $188 + $6 commission.

If a 7 is rolled, player received his $188 + $120 so he wins $114.
If a number is rolled, player loses the lay bet (including commission) but gets his money back as the money is taken down.
He leaves the bet up if a horn (2,3,11,12 is rolled)

My math tells me:

$114 x 6/30 - 41 x 6/30 - 31 x 8/30 - 25 x 10/30 = (684 - 246 - 248 - 250) / 30 = -60/30 = -$2.00.

I think this is correct.

The EV on a $10 Any 7 is $40 x 6/36 - 10 x 30/36 = -$1.67.

So, when it comes to sucker bets, I think the lay any number, while looking impressive, is just a variation of any 7, and is just as much a sucker bet.

Thoughts on this come out "system"?

What if you bet the three-way seven instead of "Any Seven"? Also, if the vig is only collected on the win, it makes quite a difference.

Quote: boymimbo

Recently at my home casino there was a player who lay all of the num on the come out roll, then pulled it down on the next number.

Quote: boymimbo

... If a number is rolled, player loses the lay bet (including commission) but gets his money back as the money is taken down.
He leaves the bet up if a horn (2,3,11,12 is rolled)
...
Thoughts on this come out "system"?

If a player considered this a good system, why would he/she take it down after the come out roll? Isn't it just as good on the next roll?

Quote: Doc

If a player considered this a good system, why would he/she take it down after the come out roll? Isn't it just as good on the next roll?

Well doing it just on the come out sort of defeats the normal stigma associated with betting the wrong way. I don't know how much that is worth to a person. Probably varies.

Quote: progrocker

Well doing it just on the come out sort of defeats the normal stigma associated with betting the wrong way. I don't know how much that is worth to a person. Probably varies.

OK, but if it's that "normal stigma" that you're trying to avoid and are looking for a "good" system, why not just bet the pass line like everyone else? Doesn't that have a lower edge than "laying it all"? The "advantage" for don't bettors is that they are more likely to win once a point is established, and this laying-it-all-then-taking-it-down strategy gives that up. Might as well be a right bettor, so far as I can see. What am I missing?

Quote: Doc

OK, but if it's that "normal stigma" that you're trying to avoid and are looking for a "good" system, why not just bet the pass line like everyone else? Doesn't that have a lower edge than "laying it all"? The "advantage" for don't bettors is that they are more likely to win once a point is established, and this laying-it-all-then-taking-it-down strategy gives that up. Might as well be a right bettor, so far as I can see. What am I missing?

This strategy emphasizes the 7, the most common total, but avoids a loss on a come-out crap/11. Of the 36 possible outcomes coming-out, there are 6 that win, 24 that lose a portion of the total wager, and 6 pushes. The vig ensures the player never gets an edge.